Probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts on durum wheat in the Mediterranean region

Recently, the availability of multi-model ensemble prediction methods has permitted a shift from a scenario-based approach to a risk-based approach in assessing the effects of climate change. This provides more useful information to decision-makers who need probability estimates to assess the seriousness of the projected impacts. <br><br> In this study, a probabilistic framework for evaluating the risk of durum wheat yield shortfall over the Mediterranean Basin has been exploited. An artificial neural network, trained to emulate the outputs of a process-based crop growth model, has been adopted to create yield response surfaces which are then overlaid with probabilistic projections of future temperature and precipitation changes in order to estimate probabilistic projections of future yields. The risk is calculated as the relative frequency of projected yields below a selected threshold. <br><br> In contrast to previous studies, which suggest that the beneficial effects of elevated atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration over the next few decades would outweigh the detrimental effects of the early stages of climatic warming and drying, the results of this study are of greater concern

Climate Change and Tourism in Tuscany, Italy. What if heat becomes unbearable?

This paper investigates the empirical magnitude of climate conditions on tourist flows in Tuscany, exploring the use of a fine spatial scale analysis. In fact, we explore the use of an 8-year panel dataset of Tuscany’s 254 municipalities, examining how tourist inflows respond to variation in local weather conditions. In particular, as the area enjoys a fairly mild Mediterranean climate, our analysis focused on temperature extremes at key times of the tourist season, i.e., on maximum summer temperature and minimum winter temperature. Separate analyses are conducted for domestic and international tourists, so as to test the differences in the preferences among these distinct groups (or types of demand). Estimation results show the impact of climate change on tourist flows appears to vary significantly among destinations depending on the kind of attractions they offer, and those areas that host the main artistic and historical sights, affecting predominantly the domestic rather than the international tourists.Domestic Tourists, International Tourists, Municipalities, Maximum And Minimum Daily Temperature, Dynamic Model, Temperature Demand Elasticity, GMM

Communicating soil carbon science to farmers: incorporating credibility, salience and legitimacy

A key narrative within climate change science is that conserving and improving soil carbon through agricultural practices can contribute to agricultural productivity and is a promising option for mitigating carbon loss through sequestration. This paper examines the potential disconnect between science and practice in the context of communicating information about soil carbon management. It focuses on the information producing process and on stakeholder (adviser, farmer representative, policy maker etc) assessment of the attributes credibility, salience and legitimacy. In doing this it draws on results from consultations with stakeholders in the SmartSOIL project which aimed to provide decision support guidelines about practices that optimise carbon mitigation and crop productivity. An iterative methodology, used to engage stakeholders in developing, testing and validating a range of decision support guidelines in six case study regions across Europe, is described. This process enhanced legitimacy and revealed the importance, and the different dimensions, of stakeholder views on credibility and salience. The results also highlight the complexities and contested nature of managing soil carbon. Some insights are gained into how to achieve more effective communication about soil carbon management, including the need to provide opportunities in projects and research programmes for dialogue to engender better understanding between science and practice

Aggressiveness pattern and second primary tumor risk associated with basaloid squamous cell carcinoma of the larynx

Basaloid squamous cell carcinoma (BSCC) is a rare, aggressive and distinct variant of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the upper respiratory and digestive tract. We have evaluated disease specific survival (DSS) and overall survival (OS) through Kaplan-Meier method and mortality risk through univariate statistical analysis of Cox in 42 cases of BSCC and other 42 of laryngeal SCC (LSCC) matched for both age and sex. We demonstrated that laryngeal BSCC is a more aggressive tumor than LSCC as is associated to higher nodal recurrence of pathology (5 vs 2 patients, median survival, OR 2.7), a reduced survival (median survival 34 vs 40 months, OR 3.2 for mortality); in addition, basaloid patients have a higher risk to be affected by second primary tumors (13 vs 3 patients, OR 5.8) and a higher probability to die for this second tumor (Hazard Risk, HR 4.4). The analysis of survival shows an increased mortality risk concurrent with the parameters assessed by univariate analyses that assume a predictive and statistical significance in second tumor and grading in basaloid LSSC.Basaloid squamous cell carcinoma (BSCC) is a rare, aggressive and distinct variant of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the upper respiratory and digestive tract. We have evaluated disease specific survival (DSS) and overall survival (OS) through Kaplan-Meier method and mortality risk through univariate statistical analysis of Cox in 42 cases of BSCC and other 42 of laryngeal SCC (LSCC) matched for both age and sex. We demonstrated that laryngeal BSCC is a more aggressive tumor than LSCC as is associated to higher nodal recurrence of pathology (5 vs 2 patients, median survival, OR 2.7), a reduced survival (median survival 34 vs 40 months, OR 3.2 for mortality); in addition, basaloid patients have a higher risk to be affected by second primary tumors (13 vs 3 patients, OR 5.8) and a higher probability to die for this second tumor (Hazard Risk, HR 4.4). The analysis of survival shows an increased mortality risk concurrent with the parameters assessed by univariate analyses that assume a predictive and statistical significance in second tumor and grading in basaloid LSSC

Progressive high-fluence epithelium-on accelerated corneal crosslinking: a novel corneal photodynamic therapy for early progressive keratoconus

Purpose: To assess the preliminary clinical results of a new, progressively higher fluence-pulsed light Epi-On accelerated crosslinking nomogram (PFPL M Epi-On ACXL) in the treatment of progressive keratoconus (KC). Setting: Siena Crosslinking Center, Siena, Italy. Methods: A prospective pilot open, non-randomized interventional study, including 32 eyes of 32 young-adult patients over 26 years old with Stages I-III progressive KC undergoing PFPL M Epi-On ACXL, was conducted. Riboflavin loading was performed by using Paracel I 0.25% for 4 min and Paracel II 0.22% for 6 min. The Avedro KXL System (Glaukos-Avedro, Burlington, USA) was used for pulsed-light accelerated crosslinking (ACXL) at air room 21% oxygenation and 13 min of UV-A irradiation. The treatment fluence was set at 7.2 J/cm2, 8.6 J/cm2, and 10.0 J/cm2 in corneas with baseline pachymetry <420 μm (group 1: 8 eyes), ≥ 420 μm <460 μm (group 2, 11 eyes), and ≥ 460 μm (group 3, 13 eyes), respectively. Uncorrected distance visual acuity (UDVA), best-spectacle corrected visual acuity (BSCVA), Scheimpflug corneal tomography, and anterior segment OCT (AS-OCT) data were collected at baseline and postoperatively at 1, 3, and 6 months. Results: UDVA and BSCVA improved in all groups (P ≤ 0.05). Maximum keratometry values (K max) showed a significant decrease in the 10.0 J/cm2 group (Δ −1.68 D). The coma (HOAs) value improved significantly by the sixth month in all groups. OCT average demarcation lines were 211 ± 19 μm in group 1, 245 ± 23 μm in group 2, and 267 ± 21 μm in group 3. Conclusions: The preliminary results show that pachymetry-based PFPL M Epi-On ACXL nomogram stabilizes ectasia progression. Higher fluence Epi-On ACXL increases CXL penetration, with better functional outcomes in the absence of complications