Accessing offshore wind turbines for maintenance : calculating access probabilities, expected delays and the associated costs using a probabilistic approach

There are ambitious plans in place for the expansion of offshore wind-power capacity in the EU and elsewhere. However, the cost of energy from offshore wind is much higher than that from land-based generation and anything between 15% and 30% of this cost is attributable to the cost of operation and maintenance (O&M). For exposed UK round three sites these costs could be higher still. The stochastic nature of the occurrence of faults, down-times due to adverse weather and sea-state and the associated losses in energy production, as well as vessel and personnel costs, all add to the potential risk to the finance of an offshore wind farm project. There is a clear need to estimate these effects and the risks associated with them when planning and financing a wind-farm. Key to all such calculations are the restrictions on safe access for maintenance associated with vessels and access methods and the consequent delays caused by adverse sea-state and weather. A computational approach has been developed at University of Strathclyde, based on an event tree and closed-form probabilistic calculations, enabling very fast estimates to be made of offshore access probabilities and expected delays using a simple spreadsheet. Examples are presented for calculations of accessibility. Turbine availability and loss of energy production are calculated based on given turbine component reliability data together with an agreed maintenance scheme. Direct maintenance cost and revenue lost due to down-time can also be calculated with suitable data on the costs of personnel, components, and vessel hire as well as electricity unit and ROC prices, and examples are given. Sensitivities to some of the key parameters are also presented

Estimating the cost of offshore maintenance and the benefit from condition monitoring

The EU generally, and the UK, Belgium, Netherlands and Germany specifically, have ambitious plans for the large scale installation of offshore wind-power capacity. However, the cost of energy from offshore wind is much higher than that from land-based generation and a substantial portion of that cost, anything between 15% and 30%, may be due to the cost of O&M alone, largely driven by delays in access and repair caused by adverse weather and sea-state, high vessel costs, higher wage costs, and lost revenue from extended down-time. As part of a condition monitoring project commissioned and funded by the ETI (Energy Technologies Institute), the authors have developed a simple tool to estimate the cost of O&M and associated lost revenue, and also to estimate the potential for condition monitoring to allow operators to reduce those costs and the loss in revenue through better maintenance scheduling. The tool builds on earlier work conducted at Strathclyde and presented at EOW 2009 on estimating offshore access delays and turbine availability using a closed form probabilistic method based on an event tree, but without extensive time-domain or Monte Carlo simulation. It currently uses wind and wave data, reliability data and component cost data mainly available in the public domain. Repairs and replacements of subsystems have been classified into a small range of different repair severities, each having their specific requirements for vessels, plant, personnel and time. Expected delays can be calculated directly for each type of repair and the overall effects are summed. Condition monitoring and other maintenance strategies are assumed to change the allocation of a particular subsystem's faults between repair categories and thereby affect its overall impact on down-time and other costs.Calculations are carried out in a spreadsheet that updates instantly when any parameter is changed. The advantage of the approach developed is that it is possible to explore the impact of changing access thresholds, reliabilities or site parameters quickly and easily without having to run a long series of simulations for each new situation

Comparison against theory, context without concept

Comment on van der Veer, Peter. 2016. The value of comparison. Durham, NC: Duke University Press

Replacing Leads by Self-Energies Using Nonequilibrium Green's Functions

An open quantum system consists of leads connected to a device of interest. Within the nonequilibrium Green's function technique, we examine the replacement of leads by self-energies in continuum calculations. Our starting point is a formulation of the problem for continuum systems by T.E. Feuchtwang. In this approach there is considerable flexibility in the choice of unperturbed Green's functions. We examine the consequences of this freedom on the treatment of leads. For any choice the leads can be replaced by coupling self-energies which are simple functions of energy. We find that the retarded self-energy depends on the details of the choice of unperturbed Green's function, and can take any value. However, the nonequilibrum self-energy or scattering function can be taken to be independent of this choice. Expressed in terms of these self-energies, nonequilibrium transport calculations take a particularly simple form.Comment: 14 pages, 0 figure

The Ruderman-Kittel-Kasuya-Yosida (RKKY) interaction across a tunneling junction out of equilibrium

The Ruderman-Kittel-Kasuya-Yosida (RKKY) interaction between two magnetic $s$-$d$ spin impurities across a tunneling junction is studied when the system is driven out of equilibrium through biasing the junction. The nonequilibrium situation is handled with the Keldysh time-loop perturbation formalism in conjunction with appropriate coupling methods for tunneling systems due to Caroli and Feuchtwang. We find that the presence of a nonequilibrium bias across the junction leads to an interference of several fundamental oscillations, such that in this tunneling geometry, it is possible to tune the interaction between ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic coupling at a fixed impurity configuration, simply by changing the bias across the junction. Furthermore, it is shown that the range of the RKKY interaction is altered out of equilibrium, such that in particular the interaction energy between two slabs of spins scales extensively with the thickness of the slabs in the presence of an applied bias.Comment: 38 pages revtex preprint; 5 postscript figures; submitted to Phys. Rev.

Failure rate, repair time and unscheduled O&M cost analysis of offshore wind turbines

Determining and understanding offshore wind turbine failure rates and resource requirement for repair are vital for modelling and reducing O&M costs and in turn reducing the cost of energy. While few offshore failure rates have been published in the past even less details on resource requirement for repair exist in the public domain. Based on ~350 offshore wind turbines throughout Europe this paper provides failure rates for the overall wind turbine and its sub-assemblies. It also provides failure rates by year of operation, cost category and failure modes for the components/sub-assemblies that are the highest contributor to the overall failure rate. Repair times, average repair costs and average number of technicians required for repair are also detailed in this paper. An onshore to offshore failure rate comparison is carried out for generators and converters based on this analysis and an analysis carried out in a past publication. The results of this paper will contribute to offshore wind O&M cost and resource modelling and aid in better decision making for O&M planners and managers

Maximum-entropy theory of steady-state quantum transport

We develop a theoretical framework for describing steady-state quantum transport phenomena, based on the general maximum-entropy principle of nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. The general form of the many-body density matrix is derived, which contains the invariant part of the current operator that guarantees the nonequilibrium and steady-state character of the ensemble. Several examples of the theory are given, demonstrating the relationship of the present treatment to the widely used scattering-state occupation schemes at the level of the self-consistent single-particle approximation. The latter schemes are shown not to maximize the entropy, except in certain limits

Time-Dependent Partition-Free Approach in Resonant Tunneling Systems

An extended Keldysh formalism, well suited to properly take into account the initial correlations, is used in order to deal with the time-dependent current response of a resonant tunneling system. We use a \textit{partition-free} approach by Cini in which the whole system is in equilibrium before an external bias is switched on. No fictitious partitions are used. Besides the steady-state responses one can also calculate physical dynamical responses. In the noninteracting case we clarify under what circumstances a steady-state current develops and compare our result with the one obtained in the partitioned scheme. We prove a Theorem of asymptotic Equivalence between the two schemes for arbitrary time-dependent disturbances. We also show that the steady-state current is independent of the history of the external perturbation (Memory Loss Theorem). In the so called wide-band limit an analytic result for the time-dependent current is obtained. In the interacting case we propose an exact non-equilibrium Green function approach based on Time Dependent Density Functional Theory. The equations are no more difficult than an ordinary Mean Field treatment. We show how the scattering-state scheme by Lang follows from our formulation. An exact formula for the steady-state current of an arbitrary interacting resonant tunneling system is obtained. As an example the time-dependent current response is calculated in the Random Phase Approximation.Comment: final version, 18 pages, 9 figure

Investigation of the relationship between main-bearing loads and wind field characteristics

This paper investigates the relationship between main bearing loads and the characteristics of the incident wind field in which a wind turbine is operating. For a 2MW wind turbine model, fully aeroelastic multibody simulations are performed in 3D turbulent wind fields across the wind turbines operational envelope. Hub loads are extracted and then injected into a simplified drivetrain model of a single main-bearing configuration whose parameters are determined using finite element software. The main bearing reaction loads and load ratios from the simplified model are presented and analysed. The results indicate that there is a strong link between wind field characteristics and the loading experienced by a single main-bearing, with more damaging load ratios seen to occur in low turbulence and high shear wind conditions