Interaction of European Carbon Trading and Energy Prices

This paper addresses the economic impact of the EU Emission Trading Scheme for carbon on wholesale electricity and gas prices. Specifically, we analyse the mutual relationships between electricity, gas and carbon prices in the daily spot markets in the United Kingdom. Using a structural co-integrated VAR model, we show how the prices of carbon and gas jointly influence the equilibrium price of electricity. Furthermore, we derive the dynamic pass-trough of carbon into electricity price and the response of electricity and carbon prices to shocks in the gas price.Carbon Emission Trading, Energy Markets, Structural VECM

Non-linear effects and aggregation bias in Ricardian models of climate change

Ricardian models predicting the impact of climate change on agriculture are typically estimated on data aggregated across counties and assuming additively separable effects of temperature and precipitation. We investigate the potential bias induced by such assumptions by using a large panel of farm-level data and estimating a semi-parametric specification. Consistent with the agronomic literature, we observe significant non-linear interaction effects, with more abundant precipitation being a mitigating factor for heat stress. This interaction disappears when the same data is aggregated in the conventional manner, leading to predictions of climate change impacts which are severely distorted

The effects of weather and climate change on dengue

There is much uncertainty about the future impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases. Such uncertainty reflects the difficulties in modelling the complex interactions between disease, climatic and socioeconomic determinants. We used a comprehensive panel dataset from Mexico covering 23 years of province-specific dengue reports across nine climatic regions to estimate the impact of weather on dengue, accounting for the effects of non-climatic factors

Using revealed preferences to estimate the value of travel time to recreation sites

The opportunity Value of Travel Time (VTT) is one of the most important parts of the total cost of recreation day-trips and arguably the most difficult to estimate. Most studies build upon the theoretical framework proposed by Becker's (1965) by using a combination of revealed and stated preference data to estimate a value of time which is uniform in all activities and under all circumstances. This restriction is relaxed by DeSerpa's (1971) model which allows the value of saving time to be activity-specific. We present the first analysis which uses actual driving choices between open access and toll roads to estimate a VTT specific for recreation trips, thereby providing a value which conforms to both Becker's and DeSerpa's models. Using these findings we conduct a Monte Carlo simulation to identify generalizable results for use in subsequent valuation studies

ANALIZING WATER FRAMEWORK DIRECTIVE IMPACTS USING A MULTINOMIAL LOGIT LAND USE MODEL

We develop a two-stage, multinomial logit model of UK land use to investigate the impact of policy changes upon agriculture. The model utilizes a large panel database covering the entirety of England and Wales for 14 years between 1969 and 2004 integrated with the economic and physical environment determinants of all major agricultural land use types. Our model performs well in out-of-sample prediction of current land use and we use it to assess a proposed implementation of the Water Framework Directive via a tax on fertilizer. Results indicate that such policy change would generate substantial switching from arable to grassland systems, reducing significantly the amount of nitrate leaching into UK water-bodies.Water Framework Directive, Land use models, Discrete choice models, Multinomial logit, Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

A Pragmatic Approach to Wastewater Treatment Modelling: The Källby Wastewater Treatment Plant as a Case Study

A wastewater treatment plant prediction in your computer The Källby wastewater treatment plant was set-up in a mathematical model reflecting its actual behaviour. Are the commonly available measurements good enough to perform a simulation? What kind of outcomes can we expect? After you have read the heading and the introduction, I guess that two proper questions swirling around in your head might be: what is wastewater treatment and what is a model? First wastewater treatment is the process that allows the return of sewerage and industrial wastewater to water cycle with minimal environmental impact and in accordance with existing discharge limits. There are three main reasons why this is performed: protect people from waterborne diseases that may be originated by contact with untreated wastewater, safeguard water environment from pollution that may arise from discharge of untreated wastewater and support of relevant life and economic systems. Secondly I would answer that a model is the representation of a system of interest, that is something important to be studied. It often simplifies reality in order to describe only the relevant processes and makes use of software solutions to perform the required computations. Modelling applied to wastewater treatment allows to simulate the actual physical, biological and chemical processes taking place in a wastewater treatment plant. Now, why do we need to model a wastewater treatment plant? Nowadays modelling is used as a design tool, instead of traditional design procedures. It is the most feasible and maybe less costly way to attain a process optimisation and it can also help the plant operators to test some corrective actions without expensive and environmentally risky full scale tests...wow! Let's get to the point: The present work achieved to simulate the Källby wastewater treatment plant of Lund, Sweden. The work focused on the wastewater treatment lines, especially on carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus removal. The sludge treatment lines, necessary to dispose of sewage sludge produced during sewage treatment, were not included in the model. Only available real data from the database of the company managing the plant were used to feed the model, without performing any additional measurement campaign. A relevant part of the work regarded the data treatment concerning the influent concentration to generate the input file for the model. After that it was possible to perform the simulation. At this point comparison between real measurements and model outputs was allowed. The reasons causing the main mismatches between the model outputs and real data were investigated and a troubleshooting step was performed in order to try to fix them. Annual variations of nitrogen and phosphorus were shown by the model, meaning that, even with the limitation of poor data, modelling can still be a valuable tool to understand the behaviour of treatment plants and to predict the response of the plant to influent variations. The result of this thesis is a deeper understanding of the actual behaviour of the plant. It also allows evaluations of new scenarios and possible future changes of the operation. Knowledge achieved in this work could also be used by plant operator to troubleshoot or to find better control strategies. Enjoy the reading

The environmental impact of climate change adaptation on land use and water quality

Encouraging adaptation is an essential aspect of the policy response to climate change1. Adaptation seeks to reduce the harmful consequences and harness any beneficial opportunities arising from the changing climate. However, given that human activities are the main cause of environmental transformations worldwide2, it follows that adaptation itself also has the potential to generate further pressures, creating new threats for both local and global ecosystems. From this perspective, policies designed to encourage adaptation may conflict with regulation aimed at preserving or enhancing environmental quality. This aspect of adaptation has received relatively little consideration in either policy design or academic debate. To highlight this issue, we analyse the trade-offs between two fundamental ecosystem services that will be impacted by climate change: provisioning services derived from agriculture and regulating services in the form of freshwater quality. Results indicate that climate adaptation in the farming sector will generate fundamental changes in river water quality. In some areas, policies that encourage adaptation are expected to be in conflict with existing regulations aimed at improving freshwater ecosystems. These findings illustrate the importance of anticipating the wider impacts of human adaptation to climate change when designing environmental policies