Identifying Determinants of German Inflation: An Eclectic Approach

The paper applies an equilibrium correction model to discuss impacts of monetary, labour and external factors on the German inflation. The approach presented is of eclectic character and allows for examination which variables representative for various inflation theories matter empirically when analysing inflation processes in Germany. The results obtained suggest that inflation in Germany is determined by adjustment processes on the market of production factors, external shocks embodied in import prices, level of capacity utilisation and monetary policy actions.equilibrium correction model, inflation modelling, Germany

The Welfare State, Thresholds, and Economic Growth

Can a growing welfare state induce a regime switch in the growth rate of an econ-omy? This paper constructs a dynamic political economy model of economic growth and the welfare state in which both variables are non-linearly related and jointly en-dogenous. Using a Markov switching framework over the period 1950-2001, we find that the structural decline in growth rates that several welfare state economies expe-rienced during 1970-1975 are preceded by movements to a high welfare state regime. This suggests that expanding welfare state regimes are associated with low economic growth regimes, while contracting welfare state regimes are associated with high growth regimes. However, we also find that the structural decline in growth rates leads to a downward structural break in the welfare state for many welfare state economies. This suggests that declining growth regimes are associated with contracting welfare state regimes, as lower growth forces politicians to cut the size of the welfare state. We also report strong evidence that both expansion and contractions in the welfare state affects growth non-linearly. These results are able to characterize a predictable and general pattern of welfare state-growth evolution.Welfare state; Structural change; Regime switching models; Positive political economy; Endogenous growth

The Polish Zloty and Currency Speculation

This paper uses Markov switching models to study short-run movements of the Polish zloty and speculative phenomena in Poland, that is, to investigate whether the exchange rate is "contaminated" by a speculative bubble. The zloty movements are examined in terms of so-called long swings - periods of prevailing appreciation and depreciation of the exchange rate. Speculative fluctuations of the zloty are investigated within two different frameworks: the uncovered interest parity hypothesis and a model of a zloty bubble. The results obtained suggest that the zloty exchange rate is characterised by interweaving periods of appreciation and depreciation with different durations. The uncovered interest parity hypothesis does not hold. Periods were identified, in which the zloty exhibited "bubble properties".Markov switching, exchange rates, speculative bubbles

Growth risks for the EU emanating from global imbalances

The objective of this paper is to examine the possible implications of the adjustment of global and intraEuropean imbalances, particularly in terms of the macroeconomic impacts. We design a series of macroeconomic scenarios and look at the impact of global and European shocks (corresponding to various policies aimed at reducing imbalances) on the economies of the biggest world players - the US, China, the oil exporting countries, and the EU and its individual members. The methodological approach we adopt is based around a series of simulations using the National Institute’s global macroeconomic model NIGEM. Key findings suggest that while global imbalances may be adjusted either through policies in the US or in China, the adjustment on the Chinese side is somewhat less costly for Europe than the adjustment on the US side. Intra-European imbalances may be reduced through various policies, an appropriate policy mix is probably required

Identifying Determinants of German Inflation: An Eclectic Approach

The paper applies an equilibrium correction model to discuss impacts of monetary, labour and external factors on the German inflation. The approach presented is of eclectic character and allows for examination which variables representative for various inflation theories matter empirically when analysing inflation processes in Germany. The results obtained suggest that inflation in Germany is determined by adjustment processes on the market of production factors, external shocks embodied in import prices, level of capacity utilisation and monetary policy actions

Political Instability and the August 1998 Ruble Crisis

The main objective of this study is to highlight the importance of political instability, defined as frequent changes in and of government, in undermining the Russian exchange rate based stabilization program of the 1990s. The empirical evidence supports the significance of political instability along with economic fundamentals in determining Russian real effective exchange rate and exchange market pressure, used as a proxy to the crisis.Currency crises, political instability

Produstion of middle wheel, by solid forming

Pavel Fic: Výroba středního kola objemovým tvářením. Bakalářská práce. Kombinované studium bakalářského studijního programu Strojírenství, Obor Strojírenské technologie. 3.ročník, letní semestr, akademický rok 2009/2010. FSI VUT v Brně, ÚST - odbor technologie tváření kovů a plastů, květen 2010, str. 57, obr. 49, tab. 11, 8 příloh. V této bakalářské práci je provedena detailní literární studie k tématu výroby středního kola objemovým tvářením za tepla - kováním. Dále je zpracován návrh technologie zápustkového kování řetězového kola č.v.: BP - 2010 - 01. K předpokládané sérii 30 tis. kusů za rok je volena technologie zápustkového kování na Svislém kovacím lisu. Ke zpracování technologického postupu byly provedeny nutné výpočty a navazující výkresová dokumentace a technicko ekonomické zhodnocení.Pavel Fic: Volume forming production from middlewheell. Bachelor thesis. Bachelors study.Combined study from bachelors study program – Engineering, specialization on manufacturing technology. 3.grade, summer semester , academical year 2009/2010. FME Brno UT in Brno, IMT – Department of Metal Forming, May 2010, 57 pages, 49 pictures, 11 table, 8 side orders. In this bachelors thesis is processed detail literary studies on thema volume hot-forming production of middlewheell – with drop forging technology. Next is made proposal from drop forging technology of stringwheell – drawing number BP – 2010 – 01. For presumption series 30 thousand pieces per year is choose drop forging technology in the vertical forging press. From technical procedure were made necessary calculations. These calculations are followed by drawing documentation and technical-economic evaluation.

Household debt and foreign currency borrowing in new member states of the EU

In the light of rapidly rising household debt, we undertake panel estimation of determinants of debt-income ratios in new EU member states of Central and Eastern Europe and interpret the results in the light of indicators of housing bubbles, estimates of equilibrium debt ratios from Western Europe and information on foreign currency borrowing in the CEE. We conclude that there are potential risks from overindebtedness in some of these countries, while in others where debt-income ratios appear sustainable, there remain risks related to high levels of foreign currency debt, notably where there is a floating exchange rate. Important issues are raised for future economic performance as well as the structure of banking regulation

The Polish zloty and currency speculation

This paper uses Markov switching models to study short-run movements of the Polish zloty and speculative phenomena in Poland, that is, to investigate whether the exchange rate is "contaminated" by a speculative bubble. The zloty movements are examined in terms of so-called long swings - periods of prevailing appreciation and depreciation of the exchange rate. Speculative fluctuations of the zloty are investigated within two different frameworks: the uncovered interest parity hypothesis and a model of a zloty bubble. The results obtained suggest that the zloty exchange rate is characterised by interweaving periods of appreciation and depreciation with different durations. The uncovered interest parity hypothesis does not hold. Periods were identified, in which the zloty exhibited "bubble properties"

Heat and mass transfer under an infant radiant warmer – Development of a numerical model

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in Medical Engineering & Physics. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2010 Elsevier B.V.The main objectives of this paper are to present a procedure of how to create and set up a model for the physical processes that take place within an infant radiant warmer and to validate that Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) can be used to resolve such problems. In this study, the results are obtained for a simplified model, both in terms of the geometry employed and the prescribed boundary conditions. The results were numerically verified in terms of the convergence history, monitor data and the physical correctness. This study shows that the physical situation is unsteady and the results tend to oscillate, almost periodically, around a mean value. The results presented in the paper are found to be in qualitative agreement with the experimental data. This gives us confidence that the techniques employed in this paper are appropriate and form the starting point for the inclusion of more realistic effects, e.g. real shape of the newborn and radiant lamp, heat generated inside the newborn, moisture transport, etc.European Union Marie Curie Fellowship programm