Growth under Exchange Rate Volatility: Does Access to Foreign or Domestic Equity Markets Matter?

Employing a matched employer-employee dataset, this paper explores the effects of exchange rate volatility on the growth performances of domestic versus foreign, and publicly traded versus non-traded private manufacturing firms in a major developing country, Turkey. The empirical results using dynamic panel data estimation techniques and comprehensive robustness tests suggest that exchange rate volatility has a significant growth reducing effect on manufacturing firms. However, having access to foreign, and to a lesser degree, domestic equity markets is found to reduce these negative effects at significant levels. These findings continue to hold after controlling for firm heterogeneity due to differences in export orientation, external indebtedness, profitability, productivity, size, industrial characteristics, and time-variant institutional changes

Exchange Rate Volatility and Employment Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Turkey

Employing a unique panel of 691 private firms that accounted for 26% of total value-added in manufacturing in Turkey, the paper explores the impacts of exchange rate volatility on employment growth during the period of 1983 - 2005. The empirical analysis using a variety of specifications, estimation techniques, and robustness tests suggests that exchange rate volatility has a statistically and economically significant employment growth reducing effect on manufacturing firms. Using point estimates, the results suggest that for an average firm a one standard deviation increase in real exchange rate volatility reduces employment growth in the range of 1.4 - 2.1 percentage points.Exchange Rate Volatility; Employment Growth; Manufacturing Firms; South Eastern Europe; Turkey

Volatility of short term capital flows, financial anarchy and private investment in emerging markets

Using micro-level panel data, the paper analyses the impacts of short-term capital flow volatility on new fixed investment spending of publicly traded real sector firms in three major emerging markets that are Argentina, Mexico and Turkey. The empirical results including comprehensive sensitivity tests suggest that increasing volatility of capital inflows has an economically and statistically significant negative effect on new investment spending of private firms. Accordingly, a 10 per cent increase in capital flow volatility reduces fixed investment spending in the range of 1-1.7, 2.3-15.1, and 1 per cent in Argentina, Mexico and Turkey respectively.Capital Flow Volatility; Macroeconomic Uncertainty; Private Investment; Financial Liberalisation

Exchange Rate Volatility and Employment Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Turkey

Employing a unique panel of 691 private firms that accounted for 26% of total value-added in manufacturing in Turkey, the paper explores the impacts of exchange rate volatility on employment growth during the period of 1983 - 2005. The empirical analysis using a variety of specifications, estimation techniques, and robustness tests suggests that exchange rate volatility has a statistically and economically significant employment growth reducing effect on manufacturing firms. Using point estimates, the results suggest that for an average firm a one standard deviation increase in real exchange rate volatility reduces employment growth in the range of 1.4 - 2.1 percentage points

Growth under Exchange Rate Volatility: Does Access to Foreign or Domestic Equity Markets Matter?

Employing a matched employer-employee dataset, this paper explores the effects of exchange rate volatility on the growth performances of domestic versus foreign, and publicly traded versus non-traded private manufacturing firms in a major developing country, Turkey. The empirical results using dynamic panel data estimation techniques and comprehensive robustness tests suggest that exchange rate volatility has a significant growth reducing effect on manufacturing firms. However, having access to foreign, and to a lesser degree, domestic equity markets is found to reduce these negative effects at significant levels. These findings continue to hold after controlling for firm heterogeneity due to differences in export orientation, external indebtedness, profitability, productivity, size, industrial characteristics, and time-variant institutional changes

Volatility of short term capital flows and socio-political instability in developing countries: A review

The paper reviews the theoretical and empirical evidence on the relationship between financial liberalization and socio-political risk by identifying the inter-dependent nature of socio-political and economic fault lines. In particular, the research examines the dynamic relationship between the volatility of short-term capital flows and socio-political instability. Accordingly, the socio-political risk is argued to be endogenously determined with the volatility of short term capital inflows such that increasing volatility by disrupting market activities, domestic investment and growth increases socio-political risk, which further feeds into the volatility of such flows. Using evidence from three major developing countries that are Argentina, Mexico and Turkey and applying Granger causality tests and Impulse Response Functions, the paper finds support for the presence of an endogenous relationship between the volatility of short-term capital inflows and socio-political instability. The results challenge the previous research regarding the use of political risk as a purely exogenous variable

Volatility of short term capital flows and socio-political instability in Argentina, Mexico and Turkey

The paper analyzes the relationship between financial liberalization and socio-political risk by identifying the inter-dependent nature of socio-political and economic fault lines in three developing countries. Unlike the previous research, the current article suggests that domestic socio-political factors cannot be isolated from the fluctuations taking place in the economic arena. In particular, we examine the effects of short-term capital inflows on the recipient countries by exploring the dynamic relationship between the volatility of such flows and socio-political instability. Accordingly, we endogenize the volatility of short term capital inflows with political risk variables where increasing volatility by disrupting market activities and private investment increases socio-political risk, which further feeds into the volatility of such flows. In the empirical analysis using both the Granger causality tests and a simultaneous-equation approach we uncover a contemporaneous relationship between the volatility of short-term capital inflows and socio-political instability. The results also challenge the previous research regarding their use of political variables as purely exogenous from economic variables. Likewise, the legitimacy of the arguments explaining investor cautiousness vis-à-vis political developments in the developing countries with purely domestic factors also becomes questionable

Exchange Rate Volatility and Employment Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Turkey

Employing a unique panel of 691 private firms that accounted for 26% of total value-added in manufacturing in Turkey, the paper explores the impacts of exchange rate volatility on employment growth during the period of 1983 - 2005. The empirical analysis using a variety of specifications, estimation techniques, and robustness tests suggests that exchange rate volatility has a statistically and economically significant employment growth reducing effect on manufacturing firms. Using point estimates, the results suggest that for an average firm a one standard deviation increase in real exchange rate volatility reduces employment growth in the range of 1.4 - 2.1 percentage points

Private Investment and Cash Flow Relationship Revisited: Capital Market Imperfections and Financialization of Real Sectors in Emerging Markets

Based on the Euler equation approach, the paper analyzes the impacts of availability of internal funds on fixed investment spending in the presence of multiple investment options. It is argued that after financial liberalization real sector firms face a portfolio allocation problem between fixed and financial investments. Therefore, depending on the respective rates of returns the availability of internal funds may be a necessary but not sufficient condition for financing real investment projects. The empirical results using firm level data for Mexico and Turkey confirm this hypothesis and suggest that profits from fixed and financial assets have differential effects on fixed investment spending