Brand performance volatility from marketing spending

© Copyright 2016, INFORMS. Although volatile marketing spending, as opposed to even-level spending, may improve a brand's financial performance, it can also increase the volatility of performance, which is not a desirable outcome. This article analyzes how revenue and cash-flow volatility are influenced by own and competitive marketing spending volatility, by the level of marketing spending, by the responsiveness to own marketing spending, and by competitive response. From market response theory, we derive propositions about the influence of these variables on revenue and cash-flow volatility. In addition, we extend the Dorfman-Steiner theorem to derive the optimal level and volatility of expenditures if volatility effects are taken into account. Based on a large sample of 99 pharmaceutical brands in four clinical categories and four European countries, we test for the empirical relevance of the propositions and assess the magnitude of the different sources of marketing-induced performance volatility. We find broad support for the predicted volatility effects. Volatility elasticities are significant and may be as large as 1.10 for cash-flow variance with respect to marketing responsiveness. The findings imply that common volatility-increasing marketing practices such as price promotions or volatile advertising plans may be effective at the top line, but they could turn out to be ineffective after all costs are taken into account. Optimal marketing volatility needs to trade off sales effectiveness and extra costs resulting from marketing volatility

Proximate factors underpinning receiver responses to deceptive false alarm calls in wild tufted capuchin monkeys: is it counterdeception?

Previous research demonstrates that tufted capuchin monkeys use terrestrial predator alarm calls in a functionally deceptive manner to distract conspecifics when feeding on contestable resources, although the success of this tactic is limited because listeners frequently ignore these calls when given in such situations. While this decreased response rate is suggestive of a counterstrategy to deception by receivers, the proximate factors underpinning the behavior are unclear. The current study aims to test if the decreased response rate to alarm calls in competitive contexts is better explained by the perception of subtle acoustic differences between predator-elicited and deceptive false alarms, or by receivers varying their responses based on the context in which the signal is received. This was tested by first examining the acoustic structure of predator-elicited and deceptive false alarms for any potentially perceptible acoustic differences, and second by comparing the responses of capuchins to playbacks of each of predator-elicited and false alarms, played back in noncompetitive contexts. The results indicate that deceptive false alarms and predator-elicited alarms show, at best, minimal acoustic differences based on the structural features measured. Likewise, playbacks of deceptive false alarms elicited antipredator reactions at the same rate as did predator-elicited alarms, although there was a nonsignificant tendency for false alarms to be more likely to elicit escape reactions. The lack of robust acoustic differences together with the high response rate to false alarms in noncompetitive contexts suggests that the context in which the signal is received best explains receiver responses. It remains unclear, however, if listeners ascribe different meanings to the calls based on context, or if they generally ignore all signals in competitive contexts. Whether or not the decreased response rate of receivers directly stems from the deceptive use of the calls cannot be determined until these latter possibilities are rigorously tested

Haplotype analysis of the PPARgamma Pro12Ala and C1431T variants reveals opposing associations with body weight.

BACKGROUND: Variation at the PPARG locus may influence susceptibility to type 2 diabetes and related traits. The Pro12Ala polymorphism may modulate receptor activity and is associated with protection from type 2 diabetes. However, there have been inconsistent reports of its association with obesity. The silent C1431T polymorphism has not been as extensively studied, but the rare T allele has also been inconsistently linked to increases in weight. Both rare alleles are in linkage disequilibrium and the independent associations of these two polymorphisms have not been addressed. RESULTS: We have genotyped a large population with type 2 diabetes (n = 1107), two populations of non-diabetics from Glasgow (n = 186) and Dundee (n = 254) and also a healthy group undergoing physical training (n = 148) and investigated the association of genotype with body mass index. This analysis has demonstrated that the Ala12 and T1431 alleles are present together in approximately 70% of the carriers. By considering the other 30% of individuals with haplotypes that only carry one of these polymorphisms, we have demonstrated that the Ala12 allele is consistently associated with a lower BMI, whilst the T1431 allele is consistently associated with higher BMI. CONCLUSION: This study has therefore revealed an opposing interaction of these polymorphisms, which may help to explain previous inconsistencies in the association of PPARG polymorphisms and body weight

Considering the Case for Biodiversity Cycles: Reexamining the Evidence for Periodicity in the Fossil Record

Medvedev and Melott (2007) have suggested that periodicity in fossil biodiversity may be induced by cosmic rays which vary as the Solar System oscillates normal to the galactic disk. We re-examine the evidence for a 62 million year (Myr) periodicity in biodiversity throughout the Phanerozoic history of animal life reported by Rohde & Mueller (2005), as well as related questions of periodicity in origination and extinction. We find that the signal is robust against variations in methods of analysis, and is based on fluctuations in the Paleozoic and a substantial part of the Mesozoic. Examination of origination and extinction is somewhat ambiguous, with results depending upon procedure. Origination and extinction intensity as defined by RM may be affected by an artifact at 27 Myr in the duration of stratigraphic intervals. Nevertheless, when a procedure free of this artifact is implemented, the 27 Myr periodicity appears in origination, suggesting that the artifact may ultimately be based on a signal in the data. A 62 Myr feature appears in extinction, when this same procedure is used. We conclude that evidence for a periodicity at 62 Myr is robust, and evidence for periodicity at approximately 27 Myr is also present, albeit more ambiguous.Comment: Minor modifications to reflect final published versio

Emergence of heat extremes attributable to anthropogenic influences

Climate scientists have demonstrated that a substantial fraction of the probability of numerous recent extreme events may be attributed to human-induced climate change. However, it is likely that for temperature extremes occurring over previous decades a fraction of their probability was attributable to anthropogenic influences. We identify the first record-breaking warm summers and years for which a discernible contribution can be attributed to human influence. We find a significant human contribution to the probability of record-breaking global temperature events as early as the 1930s. Since then, all the last 16 record-breaking hot years globally had an anthropogenic contribution to their probability of occurrence. Aerosol-induced cooling delays the timing of a significant human contribution to record-breaking events in some regions. Without human-induced climate change recent hot summers and years would be very unlikely to have occurred.111411Ysciescopu

Evaporation induced flow inside circular wells

Flow field and height averaged radial velocity inside a droplet evaporating in an open circular well were calculated for different modes of liquid evaporation.Comment: 5 page, 3 figures, submitted to European Physical Journal

Multicentric validation of proteomic biomarkers in urine specific for diabetic nephropathy

Background: Urine proteome analysis is rapidly emerging as a tool for diagnosis and prognosis in disease states. For diagnosis of diabetic nephropathy (DN), urinary proteome analysis was successfully applied in a pilot study. The validity of the previously established proteomic biomarkers with respect to the diagnostic and prognostic potential was assessed on a separate set of patients recruited at three different European centers. In this case-control study of 148 Caucasian patients with diabetes mellitus type 2 and duration >= 5 years, cases of DN were defined as albuminuria >300 mg/d and diabetic retinopathy (n = 66). Controls were matched for gender and diabetes duration (n = 82). Methodology/Principal Findings: Proteome analysis was performed blinded using high-resolution capillary electrophoresis coupled with mass spectrometry (CE-MS). Data were evaluated employing the previously developed model for DN. Upon unblinding, the model for DN showed 93.8% sensitivity and 91.4% specificity, with an AUC of 0.948 (95% CI 0.898-0.978). Of 65 previously identified peptides, 60 were significantly different between cases and controls of this study. In <10% of cases and controls classification by proteome analysis not entirely resulted in the expected clinical outcome. Analysis of patient's subsequent clinical course revealed later progression to DN in some of the false positive classified DN control patients. Conclusions: These data provide the first independent confirmation that profiling of the urinary proteome by CE-MS can adequately identify subjects with DN, supporting the generalizability of this approach. The data further establish urinary collagen fragments as biomarkers for diabetes-induced renal damage that may serve as earlier and more specific biomarkers than the currently used urinary albumin

SDSS-II SUPERNOVA SURVEY: AN ANALYSIS of the LARGEST SAMPLE of TYPE IA SUPERNOVAE and CORRELATIONS with HOST-GALAXY SPECTRAL PROPERTIES

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the Institute of Physics via http://dx.doi.org/10.3847/0004-637X/821/2/115Using the largest single-survey sample of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) to date, we study the relationship between properties of SNe Ia and those of their host galaxies, focusing primarily on correlations with Hubble residuals (HRs). Our sample consists of 345 photometrically classified or spectroscopically confirmed SNe Ia discovered as part of the SDSS-II Supernova Survey (SDSS-SNS). This analysis utilizes host-galaxy spectroscopy obtained during the SDSS-I/II spectroscopic survey and from an ancillary program on the SDSS-III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey that obtained spectra for nearly all host galaxies of SDSS-II SN candidates. In addition, we use photometric host-galaxy properties from the SDSS-SNS data release such as host stellar mass and star formation rate. We confirm the well-known relation between HR and host-galaxy mass and find a 3.6σ significance of a nonzero linear slope. We also recover correlations between HR and host-galaxy gas-phase metallicity and specific star formation rate as they are reported in the literature. With our large data set, we examine correlations between HR and multiple host-galaxy properties simultaneously and find no evidence of a significant correlation. We also independently analyze our spectroscopically confirmed and photometrically classified SNe Ia and comment on the significance of similar combined data sets for future surveys.This material is based on work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship under Grant No. DGE-1321851. Any opinion, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. M.S. and J.A.F. are supported by the Department of Energy grant DE-SC-0009890. Funding for the SDSS and SDSS-II has been provided by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, the Participating Institutions, the National Science Foundation, the U.S. Department of Energy, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the Japanese Monbukagakusho, the Max Planck Society, and the Higher Education Funding Council for England ... Funding for SDSS-III has been provided by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation ..

Running Gauge Coupling in Asymptotically Safe Quantum Gravity

We investigate the non-perturbative renormalization group behavior of the gauge coupling constant using a truncated form of the functional flow equation for the effective average action of the Yang-Mills-gravity system. We find a non-zero quantum gravity correction to the standard Yang-Mills beta function which has the same sign as the gauge boson contribution. Our results fit into the picture according to which Quantum Einstein Gravity (QEG) is asymptotically safe, with a vanishing gauge coupling constant at the non-trivial fixed point.Comment: 27 page