The Measurement of Banking Services in the System of National Accounts

The paper considers some of the problems associated with the indirectly measured components of financial service outputs in the System of National Accounts (SNA), termed FISIM (Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured). The paper characterizes FISIM by a user cost and supplier benefit approach determining the price and quantity of various financial services in the banking sector. We examine the need for FISIM in the context of plausible alternative accounting schemes that could be used to account for financial services. The alternative accounting frameworks have implications for the labour and multifactor productivity of both the financial and nonfinancial sectors.User costs, banking services, deposit services, loan services, Total Factor Productivity growth, production accounts, System of National Accounts, FIS

News, Noise, and Estimates of the "True" Unobserved State of the Economy

Which provides a better estimates of the growth rate of “true” U.S. output, gross domestic product (GDP) or gross domestic income (GDI)? Past work has assumed the idiosyncratic variation in each estimate is pure noise, taking greater variability to imply lower reliability. We develop models that relax this assumption, allowing the idiosyncratic variation in the estimates to be partly or pure news; then greater variability may imply higher information content and greater reliability. Based on evidence from revisions, we reject the pure noise assumption for GDI growth, and our results favor placing sizable weight on GDI growth because of its relatively large idiosyncratic variability. This calls into question the suitability of the pure noise assumption in other contexts, including dynamic factor models.

A Wavelet-Based Approach To Monitoring Parkinson's Disease Symptoms

Parkinson's disease is a neuro-degenerative disorder affecting tens of millions of people worldwide. Lately, there has been considerable interest in systems for at-home monitoring of patients, using wearable devices which contain inertial measurement units. We present a new wavelet-based approach for analysis of data from single wrist-worn smart-watches, and show high detection performance for tremor, bradykinesia, and dyskinesia, which have been the major targets for monitoring in this context. We also discuss the implication of our controlled-experiment results for uncontrolled home monitoring of freely behaving patients.Comment: ICASSP 201

Predicting early data revisions to US GDP and the effects of releases on equity markets

The effects of data uncertainty on real-time decision-making can be reduced by predicting early revisions to US GDP growth. We show that survey forecasts efficiently anticipate the first-revised estimate of GDP, but that forecasting models incorporating monthly economic indicators and daily equity returns provide superior forecasts of the second-revised estimate. We consider the implications of these findings for analyses of the impact of surprises in GDP revision announcements on equity markets, and for analyses of the impact of anticipated future revisions on announcement-day returns

Theoretical Analysis of a Large Momentum Beamsplitter using Bloch Oscillations

In this paper, we present the implementation of Bloch oscillations in an atomic interferometer to increase the separation of the two interfering paths. A numerical model, in very good agreement with the experiment, is developed. The contrast of the interferometer and its sensitivity to phase fluctuations and to intensity fluctuations are also calculated. We demonstrate that the sensitivity to phase fluctuations can be significantly reduced by using a suitable arrangement of Bloch oscillations pulses

The Constancy of the Constants of Nature: Updates

The current observational and experimental bounds on the time variation of the constants of nature (the fine structure constant $\alpha$, the gravitational constant $G$ and the proton-electron mass ratio $\mu=m_p/m_e$) are reviewed.Comment: 27 pages, 2 figures, to be published in Prog.Theor.Phys, ref. adde