Forecasting Inflation using Economic Indicators: the Case of France

In order to provide short run forecasts of headline and core HICP inflation for France, we assess the forecasting performance of a large set of economic indicators, individually and jointly, as well as using dynamic factor models. We run out-of-sample forecasts implementing the Stock and Watson (1999) methodology. It turns out that, according to usual statistical criteria, the combination of several indicators -in particular those derived from surveys- provides better results than dynamic factor models, even after pre-selection of the variables included in the panel. However, factors included in VAR models exhibit more stable forecasting performance over time. Results for HICP excluding unprocessed food and energy are very encouraging. Moreover, we show that it is possible to use forecasts on this indicator to project overall inflation.Inflation ; Out-of-sample forecast ; Indicator models ; Dynamic factor models ; Phillips curve.

Assessing Aggregate Comovements in France, Germany and Italy. Using a Non Stationary Factor Model of the Euro Area.

The objective of the paper is to investigate to what extent business cycles co-move in Germany, France and Italy. We use a large-scale database of non-stationary series for the euro area in order to assess the effect of common versus idiosyncratic shocks, as well as transitory versus permanent shocks, across countries over the 1980:Q1 to 2003:Q4 period. We apply the method-ology proposed by Bai (2004) and Bai and Ng (2004) to construct a coincident indicator of the euro area business cycle to which national developments appear to be increasingly correlated at business cycle frequencies (8 to 32 quarters), while more significant différences appear at lower frequencies which measures potential growth. The indicator is also shown to be related to extra euro area economic developments.Factor models ; Non-stationary panel data models ; Euro area business cycles.

Quartäre Vereisungen in den lothringischen Vogesen: Anzahl, Ausdehnung und Alter

Die abschließende Auswertung der Arbeiten zur Aufnahme der Geologischen Karte 1 : 50.000 der Vogesen (Blätter Bruyeres und Epinal) hat bestätigt, daß der mittlere Teil der westlichen Vogesen von zumindest drei aufeinanderfolgenden Vereisungen betroffen war. Vor allem die Randlagen der dritten Vereisung sind in den Tälern von Mosel, Ognon und Moselotte und im Gebiet um Le Tholy nachgewiesen. Unter Bezug auf die für Grand Pile und Les Echets aufgestellten Stratigraphien kann man die dritte Vereisung des Moselbeckens dem Würm-Hochglazial zuordnen. Daraus ergibt sich mindel- bzw. rißzeitliches Alter für die vorausgehenden Vereisungen.researc

Seismic noise-based methods for soft-rock landslide characterization

International audienceIn order to better understand the mechanics and dynamic of landslides, it is of primary interest to image correctly their internal structure. Several active geophysical methods are able to provide the geometry of a given landslide, but were rarely applied in 3 dimensions in the past. The main disadvantages of methods like seismic reflection or electrical tomographies are that there are heavy to set up, require for some heavy processing tools to implement, and consequently are expensive and time consuming. Moreover, in the particular case of soft-rock landslides, their respective sensitivity and resolution are not always adequate to locate the potential slip surfaces. The passive methods, which require lighter instrumentation and easier processing tools, can represent an interesting alternative, particularly for difficult accessible landslides. Among them, the seismic noise based methods have shown increasing applications and developments, in particular for seismic hazard mapping in urban environment. In this paper, we present seismic noise investigations carried out on two different sites, a mudslide and a translational clayey landslide where independent measurements (geotechnical and geophysical tests) were performed earlier. Our investigations were composed of H/V measurements, which are fast and easy to perform in the field, in order to image shear wave contrasts (slip surfaces), and seismic noise array method, which is heavier to apply and interpret, but provides S-waves velocity profile versus depth. The comparisons between geophysical investigations and geotechnical information proved the applicability of such passive methods in 3D complexes, but also some limitations. Indeed interpretation of these measurements can be tricky in rough and non-homogeneous terrains

La terrasse würmienne à l'aval de la moraine de Noirgueux entre Remiremont et Epinal (Vosges) : signification dynamique et conditions paléoclimatiques

In the Mosel valley, between Remiremont and Epinal (Vosges, France), a sedimentary complex called "moraine de Noirgueux" has been known for a long time; detailed mapping for the "Carte Géologique de France, 1/50 000, feuille Bruyères", enables us to distinguish different units in it : some end moraines and an outwash apron merging down in a glacio-fluvial valley train, forming today a terrace overhanging the river up this complex, lacustrine deposits are forming a terrace too. The terminal moraines, outwash apron and glacio-fluvial terrace are connected with the maximum of advance of the glacier in the Mosel valley, that is at the maximum of cold of this period and not, as explained before, during the retreat of the glacier. Only the lake and the delta built behind the terminal complex of Noirgueux are the result of melting waters at the beginning of the glacial recession.L'étude de l'agencement des unités morphologiques et des structures sédimentaires immédiatement en amont et en aval de la « moraine de Noirgueux », dans la vallée de la Moselle, entre Remiremont et Epinal (Vosges, France), apporte d'utiles indications sur les conditions dynamiques et climatiques dans lesquelles se sont effectués, successivement, le dépôt de la nappe alluviale du Würm, son incision et sa transformation en terrasse. Ce complexe terminal du glacier de la Moselle est prolongé par une nappe proglaciaire, mise en place au maximum d'avancée du glacier au Würm, et l'incision de cette nappe se serait produite immédiatement au cours du retrait du glacier, en début d'interglaciaire, si elle n'avait été un moment retardée par l'existence d'un lac temporaire de barrage morainique.Flageollet J. C. La terrasse würmienne à l'aval de la moraine de Noirgueux entre Remiremont et Epinal (Vosges) : signification dynamique et conditions paléoclimatiques. In: Bulletin de l'Association française pour l'étude du quaternaire, vol. 21, n°1-3, 1984. pp. 93-98

Vincent Caradec, Sociologie de la vieillesse et du vieillissement, mars 2001

Flageollet-Saadna Christiane. Vincent Caradec, Sociologie de la vieillesse et du vieillissement, mars 2001. In: Les Annales de la recherche urbaine, N°91, 2001. Villes et guerres. pp. 161-162

Atlas du réchauffement climatique 1971-2010

Cet atlas présente le réchauffement climatique récent, de 1971 à 2010, dans les terres émergées continentales et océaniques découpées en 39 régions dont, pour certaines d'entre elles, les limites sont proches des limites des régions climatiques du globe telles que définies et tracées par exemple par KÖPPEN et GEIGER. Les températures utilisées sont les moyennes annuelles empruntées à la base de données "Gistemp" de la NASA, complétées par calcul et par station. Dans chaque région, sont représentées graphiquement l'évolution des températures annuelles, selon l'environnement des stations, rural, urbain ou intermédiaire, ainsi que la valeur du réchauffement, par périodes pluri annuelles et décennales. En outre, les stations, classées en deux catégories en comparant leurs températures de 2009 et 2010, sont localisées sur des cartes à l'échelle de chaque continent. Quatre cartes régionales du réchauffement sont produites pour les périodes 1971-2010, 1981-2010, 1991-2010 et 2001­2010. Elles permettent de distinguer les régions en réchauffement et les régions en refroidissement, ces dernières concernant principalement les deux dernières décennies.This atlas presents the recent warming, from 1971 to 2010, in the continental and oceanic earth's land surface, divided into 39 regions which, for some of them, the limits are close to the earth's climatic regions defined and delineated by KÖPPEN and GEIGER. The temperatures used are annual averages taken from the "Gistemp" data base of the NASA, supplemented by calculation and by station. In each region, graphs and diagrams represent the evolution of annual temperatures as well as pluri-annual, decadal and multi decadal periods of warming, depending on the environment of stations: rural, urban or intermediate. In addition, the stations, divided into two categories by comparing their temperatures of 2009 and 2010, are located on each continent-scale maps. Four regional maps of warming are drawn up for the periods 1971-2010, 1981-2010, 1991-2010 and 2001-2010. The warming regions are distinguished from the cooling regions, mainly during the last two decades