Potential changes in disease patterns and pharmaceutical use in response to climate change

This is the final version of the article. Available from Taylor & Francis via the DOI in this record.As climate change alters environmental conditions, the incidence and global patterns of human diseases are changing. These modifications to disease profiles and the effects upon human pharmaceutical usage are discussed. Climate-related environmental changes are associated with a rise in the incidence of chronic diseases already prevalent in the Northern Hemisphere, for example, cardiovascular disease and mental illness, leading to greater use of associated heavily used Western medications. Sufferers of respiratory diseases may exhibit exacerbated symptoms due to altered environmental conditions (e.g., pollen). Respiratory, water-borne, and food-borne toxicants and infections, including those that are vector borne, may become more common in Western countries, central and eastern Asia, and across North America. As new disease threats emerge, substantially higher pharmaceutical use appears inevitable, especially of pharmaceuticals not commonly employed at present (e.g., antiprotozoals). The use of medications for the treatment of general symptoms (e.g., analgesics) will also rise. These developments need to be viewed in the context of other major environmental changes (e.g., industrial chemical pollution, biodiversity loss, reduced water and food security) as well as marked shifts in human demographics, including aging of the population. To identify, prevent, mitigate, and adapt to potential threats, one needs to be aware of the major factors underlying changes in the use of pharmaceuticals and their subsequent release, deliberately or unintentionally, into the environment. This review explores the likely consequences of climate change upon the use of medical pharmaceuticals in the Northern Hemisphere.The European Centre for Environment and Human Health (part of the University of Exeter Medical School) is partly financed by the European Regional Development Fund Programme 2007 to 2013 and European Social Fund Convergence Programme for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly

Future of the Sea: Health and Wellbeing of Coastal Communities

This is the final version of the report. Available from the Government Office for Science via the link in this recordThis review has been commissioned as part of the UK government’s Foresight Future of the Sea project. The views expressed do not represent policy of any government or organisationApproximately 17 per cent of the UK population live in coastal communities; some are prosperous and commercially successful, others experiencing socio- economic decline. Regardless, evidence suggests growing risks for the health and wellbeing of coastal communities. Communities along the coast are on the front line in facing climate change and marine pollution impacts, furthermore their economies are deeply embedded with coastal and other marine activities, making these communities particularly affected. Sea-level rise and extreme weather events, driven by climate change and ecosystem damage, expose coastal communities to flooding events now and in the future, damaging local economies, and threatening health and wellbeing. Continuing pollution of the sea has been underestimated as a threat to the health of coastal dwellers.Governtment Office for Scienc

Microstructural evolution under low shear rates during Rheo processing of LM25 alloy

© ASM InternationalMicrostructural features of LM25 alloy processed by two different routes: (1) conventional casting, and(2)shear casting based on inclined heated surface are studied. The microstructures of the primary phase for the shear-cast samples show rosette or ellipsoidal morphologies. Heat transfer of contacting melt with the inclined tube surface and shear stress exerted on the layers of the melt as result of gravitational force are crucial parameters for the microstructural evolution. Compared to those produced by conventional casting, shear-cast samples have a much improved tensile strength and ductility due to globular microstructure

Fostering human health through ocean sustainability in the 21st century

This is the final version. Available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this recordThe approach of the Decade of the Ocean for Sustainable Development (2021–2030) provides a time to reflect on what we know about the complex interactions between the seas, oceans, and human health and well‐being. In the past, these interactions have been seen primarily within a risk framework, for example, adverse impacts of extreme weather, chemical pollution and increasingly, climate change. However, new research is expanding our concept of the ‘health’ of the ‘Global Ocean’, with a broader recognition of its essential and beneficial contribution to the current and future health and well‐being of humans. The seas and coasts not only provide an essential source of food, opportunities for trade and access to sustainable energy, but also the chance for people to interact with high‐quality marine environments which can lead to improvements in mental and physical health and well‐being, particularly of socio‐economically deprived individuals. By going beyond this risk framework and a purely extractive anthropocentric point of view, we can capture the true benefits, value and importance of these resources. Articulating a vision of how humans might better interact with marine ecosystems in the future, is a key first step in identifying a range of policy and management actions that can deliver our goals of fostering health and well‐being through the establishment of more sustainable interconnections with the Global Ocean.European Union Horizon 2020Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)UKRI Global Challenges Research FundNational Institute for Health Research (NIHR

Jet Shapes and Jet Algorithms in SCET

Jet shapes are weighted sums over the four-momenta of the constituents of a jet and reveal details of its internal structure, potentially allowing discrimination of its partonic origin. In this work we make predictions for quark and gluon jet shape distributions in N-jet final states in e+e- collisions, defined with a cone or recombination algorithm, where we measure some jet shape observable on a subset of these jets. Using the framework of Soft-Collinear Effective Theory, we prove a factorization theorem for jet shape distributions and demonstrate the consistent renormalization-group running of the functions in the factorization theorem for any number of measured and unmeasured jets, any number of quark and gluon jets, and any angular size R of the jets, as long as R is much smaller than the angular separation between jets. We calculate the jet and soft functions for angularity jet shapes \tau_a to one-loop order (O(alpha_s)) and resum a subset of the large logarithms of \tau_a needed for next-to-leading logarithmic (NLL) accuracy for both cone and kT-type jets. We compare our predictions for the resummed \tau_a distribution of a quark or a gluon jet produced in a 3-jet final state in e+e- annihilation to the output of a Monte Carlo event generator and find that the dependence on a and R is very similar.Comment: 62 pages plus 21 pages of Appendices, 13 figures, uses JHEP3.cls. v2: corrections to finite parts of NLO jet functions, minor changes to plots, clarified discussion of power corrections. v3: Journal version. Introductory sections significantly reorganized for clarity, classification of logarithmic accuracy clarified, results for non-Mercedes-Benz configurations adde

Assessment of optimal strategies in a two-patch dengue transmission model with seasonality

Emerging and re-emerging dengue fever has posed serious problems to public health officials in many tropical and subtropical countries. Continuous traveling in seasonally varying areas makes it more difficult to control the spread of dengue fever. In this work, we consider a two-patch dengue model that can capture the movement of host individuals between and within patches using a residence-time matrix. A previous two-patch dengue model without seasonality is extended by adding host demographics and seasonal forcing in the transmission rates. We investigate the effects of human movement and seasonality on the two-patch dengue transmission dynamics. Motivated by the recent Peruvian dengue data in jungle/rural areas and coast/urban areas, our model mimics the seasonal patterns of dengue outbreaks in two patches. The roles of seasonality and residence-time configurations are highlighted in terms of the seasonal reproduction number and cumulative incidence. Moreover, optimal control theory is employed to identify and evaluate patch-specific control measures aimed at reducing dengue prevalence in the presence of seasonality. Our findings demonstrate that optimal patch-specific control strategies are sensitive to seasonality and residence-time scenarios. Targeting only the jungle (or endemic) is as effective as controlling both patches under weak coupling or symmetric mobility. However, focusing on intervention for the city (or high density areas) turns out to be optimal when two patches are strongly coupled with asymmetric mobility.ope

In vivo PET imaging of the neuroinflammatory response in rat spinal cord injury using the TSPO tracer [F-18]GE-180 and effect of docosahexaenoic acid

Centre for Trauma Sciences, funded by the Barts & The London Charity, GE Healthcare Ltd, the Experimental Medicine Awards from the Blizard Institute and the Imaging Centre at the Barts Cancer Institute

The search for the 'next' euphoric non-fentanil novel synthetic opioids on the illicit drugs market: current status and horizon scanning

Purpose: A detailed review on the chemistry and pharmacology of non-fentanil novel synthetic opioid receptor agonists, particularly N-substituted benzamides and acetamides (known colloquially as U-drugs) and 4-aminocyclohexanols, developed at the Upjohn Company in the 1970s and 1980s is presentedMethod: Peer-reviewed literature, patents, professional literature, data from international early warning systems and drug user fora discussion threads have been used to track their emergence as substances of abuse.Results: In terms of impact on drug markets, prevalence and harm, the most significant compound of this class to date has been U-47700 (trans-3,4-dichloro-N-[2-(dimethylamino)cyclohexyl]-N-methylbenzamide), reported by users to give short-lasting euphoric effects and a desire to re-dose. Since U-47700 was internationally controlled in 2017, a range of related compounds with similar chemical structures, adapted from the original patented compounds, have appeared on the illicit drugs market. Interest in a structurally unrelated opioid developed by the Upjohn Company and now known as BDPC/bromadol appears to be increasing and should be closely monitored.Conclusions: International early warning systems are an essential part of tracking emerging psychoactive substances and allow responsive action to be taken to facilitate the gathering of relevant data for detailed risk assessments. Pre-emptive research on the most likely compounds to emerge next, so providing drug metabolism and pharmacokinetic data to ensure that new substances are detected early in toxicological samples is recommended. As these compounds are chiral compounds and stereochemistry has a large effect on their potency, it is recommended that detection methods consider the determination of configuration

Daily volume, intraday and overnight returns for volatility prediction: profitability or accuracy?

This article presents a comprehensive analysis of the relative ability of three information sets—daily trading volume, intraday returns and overnight returns—to predict equity volatility. We investigate the extent to which statistical accuracy of one-day-ahead forecasts translates into economic gains for technical traders. Various profitability criteria and utility-based switching fees indicate that the largest gains stem from combining historical daily returns with volume information. Using common statistical loss functions, the largest degree of predictive power is found instead in intraday returns. Our analysis thus reinforces the view that statistical significance does not have a direct mapping onto economic value. As a byproduct, we show that buying the stock when the forecasted volatility is extremely high appears largely profitable, suggesting a strong return-risk relationship in turbulent conditions

Farmers’ perceptions of climate change : identifying types

Ambitious targets to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture have been set by both national governments and their respective livestock sectors. We hypothesize that farmer self-identity influences their assessment of climate change and their willingness to im- plement measures which address the issue. Perceptions of climate change were determined from 286 beef/sheep farmers and evaluated using principal component analysis (PCA). The analysis elicits two components which evaluate identity (productivism and environmental responsibility), and two components which evaluate behavioral capacity to adopt mitigation and adaptation measures (awareness and risk perception). Subsequent Cluster Analyses reveal four farmer types based on the PCA scores. ‘The Productivist’ and ‘The Countryside Steward’ portray low levels of awareness of climate change, but differ in their motivation to adopt pro-environmental behavior. Conversely, both ‘The Environmentalist’ and ‘The Dejected’ score higher in their awareness of the issue. In addition, ‘The Dejected’ holds a high sense of perceived risk; however, their awareness is not conflated with an explicit understanding of agricultural GHG sources. With the exception of ‘The Environmentalist’, there is an evident disconnect between perceptions of agricultural emission sources and their contribution towards GHG emissions amongst all types. If such linkages are not con- ceptualized, it is unlikely that behavioral capacities will be realized. Effective communication channels which encour- age action should target farmers based on the groupings depicted. Therefore, understanding farmer types through the constructs used in this study can facilitate effective and tai- lored policy development and implementation