Economic evaluation of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination in The Gambia

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Gambia is the second GAVI support-eligible country to introduce the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7), but a country-specific cost-effectiveness analysis of the vaccine is not available. Our objective was to assess the potential impact of PCVs of different valences in The Gambia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We synthesized the best available epidemiological and cost data using a state-transition model to simulate the natural histories of various pneumococcal diseases. For the base-case, we estimated incremental cost (in 2005 US dollars) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted under routine vaccination using PCV9 compared to no vaccination. We extended the base-case results for PCV9 to estimate the cost-effectiveness of PCV7, PCV10, and PCV13, each compared to no vaccination. To explore parameter uncertainty, we performed both deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. We also explored the impact of vaccine efficacy waning, herd immunity, and serotype replacement, as a part of the uncertainty analyses, by assuming alternative scenarios and extrapolating empirical results from different settings.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Assuming 90% coverage, a program using a 9-valent PCV (PCV9) would prevent approximately 630 hospitalizations, 40 deaths, and 1000 DALYs, over the first 5 years of life of a birth cohort. Under base-case assumptions ($3.5 per vaccine), compared to no intervention, a PCV9 vaccination program would cost$670 per DALY averted in The Gambia. The corresponding values for PCV7, PCV10, and PCV13 were $910,$670, and $570 per DALY averted, respectively. Sensitivity analyses that explored the implications of the uncertain key parameters showed that model outcomes were most sensitive to vaccine price per dose, discount rate, case-fatality rate of primary endpoint pneumonia, and vaccine efficacy against primary endpoint pneumonia.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Based on the information available now, infant PCV vaccination would be expected to reduce pneumococcal diseases caused by <it>S. pneumoniae </it>in The Gambia. Assuming a cost-effectiveness threshold of three times GDP per capita, all PCVs examined would be cost-effective at the tentative Advance Market Commitment (AMC) price of$3.5 per dose. Because the cost-effectiveness of a PCV program could be affected by potential serotype replacement or herd immunity effects that may not be known until after a large scale introduction, type-specific surveillance and iterative evaluation will be critical.</p

Discovery of biomarkers for glycaemic deterioration before and after the onset of type 2 diabetes: descriptive characteristics of the epidemiological studies within the IMI DIRECT Consortium

\ua9 2019, The Author(s). Aims/hypothesis: Here, we describe the characteristics of the Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI) Diabetes Research on Patient Stratification (DIRECT) epidemiological cohorts at baseline and follow-up examinations (18, 36 and 48 months of follow-up). Methods: From a sampling frame of 24,682 adults of European ancestry enrolled in population-based cohorts across Europe, participants at varying risk of glycaemic deterioration were identified using a risk prediction algorithm (based on age, BMI, waist circumference, use of antihypertensive medication, smoking status and parental history of type 2 diabetes) and enrolled into a prospective cohort study (n = 2127) (cohort 1, prediabetes risk). We also recruited people from clinical registries with type 2 diabetes diagnosed 6–24 months previously (n = 789) into a second cohort study (cohort 2, diabetes). Follow-up examinations took place at ~18 months (both cohorts) and at ~48 months (cohort 1) or ~36 months (cohort 2) after baseline examinations. The cohorts were studied in parallel using matched protocols across seven clinical centres in northern Europe. Results: Using ADA 2011 glycaemic categories, 33% (n = 693) of cohort 1 (prediabetes risk) had normal glucose regulation and 67% (n = 1419) had impaired glucose regulation. Seventy-six per cent of participants in cohort 1 was male. Cohort 1 participants had the following characteristics (mean \ub1 SD) at baseline: age 62 (6.2) years; BMI 27.9 (4.0) kg/m2; fasting glucose 5.7 (0.6) mmol/l; 2 h glucose 5.9 (1.6) mmol/l. At the final follow-up examination the participants’ clinical characteristics were as follows: fasting glucose 6.0 (0.6) mmol/l; 2 h OGTT glucose 6.5 (2.0) mmol/l. In cohort 2 (diabetes), 66% (n = 517) were treated by lifestyle modification and 34% (n = 272) were treated with metformin plus lifestyle modification at enrolment. Fifty-eight per cent of participants in cohort 2 was male. Cohort 2 participants had the following characteristics at baseline: age 62 (8.1) years; BMI 30.5 (5.0) kg/m2; fasting glucose 7.2 (1.4) mmol/l; 2 h glucose 8.6 (2.8) mmol/l. At the final follow-up examination, the participants’ clinical characteristics were as follows: fasting glucose 7.9 (2.0) mmol/l; 2 h mixed-meal tolerance test glucose 9.9 (3.4) mmol/l. Conclusions/interpretation: The IMI DIRECT cohorts are intensely characterised, with a wide-variety of metabolically relevant measures assessed prospectively. We anticipate that the cohorts, made available through managed access, will provide a powerful resource for biomarker discovery, multivariate aetiological analyses and reclassification of patients for the prevention and treatment of type 2 diabetes

Respiratory viruses in children hospitalized for acute lower respiratory tract infection in Ghana

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Acute respiratory tract infections are one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality among young children in developing countries. Information on the viral aetiology of acute respiratory infections in developing countries is very limited. The study was done to identify viruses associated with acute lower respiratory tract infection among children less than 5 years.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>Nasopharyngeal samples and blood cultures were collected from children less than 5 years who have been hospitalized for acute lower respiratory tract infection. Viruses and bacteria were identified using Reverse Transcriptase Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction and conventional biochemical techniques.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Out of 128 patients recruited, 33(25.88%%, 95%CI: 18.5% to 34.2%) were positive for one or more viruses. Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) was detected in 18(14.1%, 95%CI: 8.5% to 21.3%) patients followed by Adenoviruses (AdV) in 13(10.2%, 95%CI: 5.5% to 16.7%), Parainfluenza (PIV type: 1, 2, 3) in 4(3.1%, 95%CI: 0.9% to 7.8%) and influenza B viruses in 1(0.8%, 95%CI: 0.0 to 4.3). Concomitant viral and bacterial co-infection occurred in two patients. There were no detectable significant differences in the clinical signs, symptoms and severity for the various pathogens isolated. A total of 61.1% (22/36) of positive viruses were detected during the rainy season and Respiratory Syncytial Virus was the most predominant.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The study has demonstrated an important burden of respiratory viruses as major causes of childhood acute respiratory infection in a tertiary health institution in Ghana. The data addresses a need for more studies on viral associated respiratory tract infection.</p

Incidence of Respiratory Virus-Associated Pneumonia in Urban Poor Young Children of Dhaka, Bangladesh, 2009–2011

Pneumonia is the leading cause of childhood death in Bangladesh. We conducted a longitudinal study to estimate the incidence of virus-associated pneumonia in children aged <2 years in a low-income urban community in Dhaka, Bangladesh.We followed a cohort of children for two years. We collected nasal washes when children presented with respiratory symptoms. Study physicians diagnosed children with cough and age-specific tachypnea and positive lung findings as pneumonia case-patients. We tested respiratory samples for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), rhinoviruses, human metapneumovirus (HMPV), influenza viruses, human parainfluenza viruses (HPIV 1, 2, 3), and adenoviruses using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction assays.Between April 2009-March 2011, we followed 515 children for 730 child-years. We identified a total of 378 pneumonia episodes, 77% of the episodes were associated with a respiratory viral pathogen. The overall incidence of pneumonia associated with a respiratory virus infection was 40/100 child-years. The annual incidence of pneumonia/100 child-years associated with a specific respiratory virus in children aged < 2 years was 12.5 for RSV, 6 for rhinoviruses, 6 for HMPV, 4 for influenza viruses, 3 for HPIV and 2 for adenoviruses.Young children in Dhaka are at high risk of childhood pneumonia and the majority of these episodes are associated with viral pathogens. Developing effective low-cost strategies for prevention are a high priority

Bayesian network imputation methods applied to multi-omics data identify putative causal relationships in a type 2 diabetes dataset containing incomplete data: An IMI DIRECT Study

\ua9 2025 Howey et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.Here we report the results from exploratory analysis using a Bayesian network approach of data originally derived from a large North European study of type 2 diabetes (T2D) conducted by the IMI DIRECT consortium. 3029 individuals (795 with T2D and 2234 without) within 7 different study centres provided data comprising genotypes, proteins, metabolites, gene expression measurements and many different clinical variables. The main aim of the current study was to demonstrate the utility of our previously developed method to fit Bayesian networks by performing exploratory analysis of this dataset to identify possible causal relationships between these variables. The data was analysed using the BayesNetty software package, which can handle mixed discrete/continuous data with missing values. The original dataset consisted of over 16,000 variables, which were filtered down to 260 variables for analysis. Even with this reduction, no individual had complete data for all variables, making it impossible to analyse using standard Bayesian network methodology. However, using the recently proposed novel imputation method implemented in BayesNetty we computed a large average Bayesian network from which we could infer possible associations and causal relationships between variables of interest. Our results confirmed many previous findings in connection with T2D, including possible mediating proteins and genes, some of which have not been widely reported. We also confirmed potential causal relationships with liver fat that were identified in an earlier study that used the IMI DIRECT dataset but was limited to a smaller subset of individuals and variables (namely individuals with complete data at predefined variables of interest). In addition to providing valuable confirmation, our analyses thus demonstrate a proof-of-principle of the utility of the method implemented within BayesNetty. The full final average Bayesian network generated from our analysis is freely available and can be easily interrogated further to address specific focussed scientific questions of interest

Evaluation of appendicitis risk prediction models in adults with suspected appendicitis

Background Appendicitis is the most common general surgical emergency worldwide, but its diagnosis remains challenging. The aim of this study was to determine whether existing risk prediction models can reliably identify patients presenting to hospital in the UK with acute right iliac fossa (RIF) pain who are at low risk of appendicitis. Methods A systematic search was completed to identify all existing appendicitis risk prediction models. Models were validated using UK data from an international prospective cohort study that captured consecutive patients aged 16–45 years presenting to hospital with acute RIF in March to June 2017. The main outcome was best achievable model specificity (proportion of patients who did not have appendicitis correctly classified as low risk) whilst maintaining a failure rate below 5 per cent (proportion of patients identified as low risk who actually had appendicitis). Results Some 5345 patients across 154 UK hospitals were identified, of which two‐thirds (3613 of 5345, 67·6 per cent) were women. Women were more than twice as likely to undergo surgery with removal of a histologically normal appendix (272 of 964, 28·2 per cent) than men (120 of 993, 12·1 per cent) (relative risk 2·33, 95 per cent c.i. 1·92 to 2·84; P < 0·001). Of 15 validated risk prediction models, the Adult Appendicitis Score performed best (cut‐off score 8 or less, specificity 63·1 per cent, failure rate 3·7 per cent). The Appendicitis Inflammatory Response Score performed best for men (cut‐off score 2 or less, specificity 24·7 per cent, failure rate 2·4 per cent). Conclusion Women in the UK had a disproportionate risk of admission without surgical intervention and had high rates of normal appendicectomy. Risk prediction models to support shared decision‐making by identifying adults in the UK at low risk of appendicitis were identified

Effect of month of vaccine administration on antibody responses in The Gambia and Pakistan.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the relationship between calendar month of administration and antibody (Ab) response to vaccination in subjects from The Gambia and Pakistan, two countries with distinct patterns of seasonality. METHODS: Three cohorts were investigated: Responses to rabies and pneumococcal vaccine were assessed in 472 children (mean age 8 years, males 53%) from rural Gambia. Responses to tetanus, diphtheria and hepatitis B (HBsAg) were investigated in 138 infants also from The Gambia (birth to 52 weeks of age, males 54%). Responses to rabies and Vi typhoid vaccines were assessed in 257 adults from Lahore, Pakistan (mean age 29.4 years, males 57%). RESULTS: In Gambian children, significant associations were observed between month of vaccination and Ab response for the pneumococcal and rabies vaccines. As no consistent pattern by month was observed between the responses, it is assumed that different immunomodulatory stimuli or mechanisms were involved. In Pakistani adults, a significant pattern by month of vaccination was observed with both rabies and typhoid vaccine. No monthly influences were observed in the infant study to the tetanus, diphtheria or the HbsAg vaccines. CONCLUSIONS: Antibody responses to certain specific vaccines are influenced by month of administration. Further research is required to elucidate the precise mechanisms explaining these observations, but a co-stimulatory effect of seasonally variable environmental antigens is a likely cause. Future studies of Ab response to vaccination in countries with a seasonally dependent environment should consider month of vaccination when interpreting study findings