ClimWood2030, Climate benefits of material substitution by forest biomass and harvested wood products: Perspective 2030 - Final Report

The ClimWood2030 study, commissioned by DG CLIMA of the European Commission, quantifies the five ways in which the EU forest sector contributes to climate change mitigation: carbon sequestration and storage in EU forests, carbon storage in harvested wood products in the EU, substitution of wood products for functionally equivalent materials and substitution of wood for other sources of energy, and displacement of emissions from forests outside the EU. It also explores through scenario analysis, based on a series of interlocking models (GLOBIOM, G4M and WoodCarbonMonitor), along with detailed analysis of Forest Based Functional Units, based on life cycle assessment (LCA), the consequences for GHG balances of policy choices at present under consideration. The focus is on the EU-28, but GHG balances for other parts of the world are also considered, notably to assess consequences of EU policy choices for other regions. The five scenarios are (I) The ClimWood2030 reference scenario, (II) Increase carbon stock in existing EU forests, (III) Cascade use – increase recovery of solid wood products, (IV) Cascade use – prevent first use of biomass for energy and (V) Strongly increase material wood use. The study presents detailed scenario results for key parameters, the policy instruments linked to the scenarios, and main conclusions

Climate change impacts and mitigation in the developing world: An Integrated Assessment of the Agriculture and Forestry Sectors. Policy Research Working Paper No. WPS 7477

This paper conducts an integrated assessment of climate change impacts and climate mitigation on agricultural commodity markets and food availability in low- and middle-income countries. The analysis uses the partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM to generate scenarios to 2080. The findings show that climate change effects on the agricultural sector will increase progressively over the century. By 2030, the impact of climate change on food consumption is moderate but already twice as large in a world with high inequalities than in a more equal world. In the long run, impacts could be much stronger, with global average calorie losses of 6 percent by 2050 and 14 percent by 2080. A mitigation policy to stabilize climate below 2 degrees C uniformly applied to all regions as a carbon tax would also result in a 6 percent reduction in food availability by 2050 and 12 percent reduction by 2080 compared to the reference scenario. To avoid more severe impacts of climate change mitigation on development than climate change itself, revenue from carbon pricing policies will need to be redistributed appropriately. Overall, the projected effects of climate change and mitigation on agricultural markets raise important issues for food security in the long run, but remain more limited in the medium term horizon of 2030. Thus, there are opportunities for low- and middle- income countries to pursue immediate development needs and thus prepare for later periods when adaptation needs and mitigation efforts will become the greatest

The land use change impact of biofuels consumed in the EU: Quantification of area and greenhouse gas impacts

Biofuels are promoted as an option to reduce climate emissions from the transport sector. As most biofuels are currently produced from land based crops, there is a concern that the increased consumption of biofuels requires agricultural expansion at a global scale, leading to additional carbon emissions. This effect is called Indirect Land Use Change, or ILUC. The EU Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC) directed the European Commission to develop a methodology to account for the ILUC effect. The current study serves to provide new insights to the European Commission and other stakeholders about these indirect carbon and land impacts from biofuels consumed in the EU, with more details on production processes and representation of individual feedstocks than was done before. ILUC cannot be observed or measured in reality, because it is entangled with a large number of other changes in agricultural markets at both global and local levels. The effect can only be estimated through the use of models. The current study is part of a continuous effort to improve the understanding and representation of ILUC

Exploring Large Digital Library Collections Using a Map-Based Visualisation

In this paper we describe a novel approach for exploring large document collections using a map-based visualisation. We use hierarchically structured semantic concepts that are attached to the documents to create a visualisation of the semantic space that resembles a Google Map. The approach is novel in that we exploit the hierarchical structure to enable the approach to scale to large document collections and to create a map where the higher levels of spatial abstraction have semantic meaning. An informal evaluation is carried out to gather subjective feedback from users. Overall results are positive with users finding the visualisation enticing and easy to use

Screening of depression in adolescents through the Internet: Sensitivity and specificity of two screening questionnaires.

.001). The scores on both instruments were significantly increased in all subjects with a mood disorder, whether current or lifetime, except for lifetime minor depression. In the ROC analyses, high areas under the curve were found for the MDI (0.89) and CESD (0.90). The best cut-off point for the MDI was 19 (sensitivity: 90.48; specificity: 71.53), and for the CES-D it was 22 (sensitivity: 90.48; specificity: 74.31). We conclude that the MDI and CES-D are reliable and valid instruments that can be used for this screening

Toward Visualization-Specific Heuristic Evaluation

This position paper describes heuristic evaluation as it relates to visualization and visual analytics. We review heuristic evaluation in general, then comment on previous process-based, performance-based, and framework-based efforts to adapt the method to visualization-specific needs. We postulate that the framework-based approach holds the most promise for future progress in development of visualization-specific heuristics, and propose a specific framework as a starting point. We then recommend a method for community involvement and input into the further development of the heuristic framework and more detailed design and evaluation guidelines

Molecular Evolution of Broadly Neutralizing Llama Antibodies to the CD4-Binding Site of HIV-1

To date, no immunization of humans or animals has elicited broadly neutralizing sera able to prevent HIV-1 transmission; however, elicitation of broad and potent heavy chain only antibodies (HCAb) has previously been reported in llamas. In this study, the anti-HIV immune responses in immunized llamas were studied via deep sequencing analysis using broadly neutralizing monoclonal HCAbs as a guides. Distinct neutralizing antibody lineages were identified in each animal, including two defined by novel antibodies (as variable regions called VHH) identified by robotic screening of over 6000 clones. The combined application of five VHH against viruses from clades A, B, C and CRF_AG resulted in neutralization as potent as any of the VHH individually and a predicted 100% coverage with a median IC50 of 0.17 µg/ml for the panel of 60 viruses tested. Molecular analysis of the VHH repertoires of two sets of immunized animals showed that each neutralizing lineage was only observed following immunization, demonstrating that they were elicited de novo. Our results show that immunization can induce potent and broadly neutralizing antibodies in llamas with features similar to human antibodies and provide a framework to analyze the effectiveness of immunization protocols

A spatial-explicit price impact analysis of increased biofuel production on forest feedstock markets: A scenario analysis for Sweden

The present paper introduces an integrated spatially explicit framework for assessing price impact on forestry markets in Sweden. The framework is based on the “soft-link” of a price determination model, the SpPDM model with the BeWhere Sweden model. The aim is to analyse the impacts of increased forest-based biofuel production for transportation within the Swedish context by 2030. To that effect, we develop scenarios analyses based on the simulations of successive biofuel production targets, under different assumptions concerning the competition intensity for forest biomass and the use of industrial by-products. The results suggest marginal impacts on the prices of forest biomass. The average across spatial-explicit prices varies from 0% to 2.8% across feedstocks and scenario types. However, the distribution of the spatial-explicit price impacts displays large variation, with price impacts reaching as high as 8.5%. We find that the pattern of spatial distribution of price impacts follows relatively well the spatial distribution of demand pressure. However, locations with the highest price impacts show a tendency of mismatch with the locations of the highest demand pressure (e.g. sawlogs). This is a counterintuitive conclusion compared to results from non-spatial economic models. The spatial-explicit structure of the framework developed, and its refined scale allows such results to be reported. Hence, from a policy-making perspective, careful analysis should be devoted to the locational linkages for forestry markets of increased biofuel production in Sweden

Fostering Prevention of Cervical Cancer by a Correct Diagnosis of Precursors: A Structured Case-Based Colposcopy Course in Finland, Norway and UK

Simple Summary Cervical cancer prevention is presently undergoing a thorough reformation due to introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV)-testing and vaccines in primary prevention. The screening program, however, is more than a single test or preventive intervention-the possible lesion has to be found, located and treated. Colposcopy plays a major role in this management. Literature dealing with training and learning, especially with colposcopy, is extremely scarce. The aim of the European Federation of Colposcopy, EFC, is to improve the education and training in colposcopy, e.g., by organizing colposcopy courses. The aim of our prospective interventional study was to pilot this intensive participant activating EFC Basic Colposcopy Course on the short- and long-term learning of colposcopy-related knowledge, image recognition and the diagnostic confidence. High-quality colposcopy is essential in cervical cancer prevention. We performed a multicentre prospective interventional pilot-study, evaluating the effect of a six-hour case-based colposcopy course on short- and long-term learning of colposcopy-related knowledge, diagnostic accuracy levels and confidence. We recruited 213 colposcopists participating in three European Federation of Colposcopy (EFC) basic colposcopy courses (Finland, Norway, UK). The study consisted of three tests with identical content performed before, after and 2 months after the course, including ten colposcopic images, ten patient cases and scales for marking confidence in the answers. Outcome measures where mean scores in correct case-management, diagnosis (including high-grade lesion recognition), transformation-zone recognition and confidence in answers. Results were compared between the three tests and stratified according to experience. Mean test scores improved after the course for all participants. The increase was highest for beginners. Confidence in answers improved and the number of colposcopists showing high confidence with low scores decreased. A structured case-based course improves skills and confidence especially for inexperienced colposcopists; however, trainers should be aware of the risk of overconfidence. To complement theoretical training, further hands-on training including high-quality feedback is recommended. Conclusions drawn from long-term learning are limited due to the low participation in the follow-up test.Peer reviewe

CRY2 Is Associated with Depression

Abnormalities in the circadian clockwork often characterize patients with major depressive and bipolar disorders. Circadian clock genes are targets of interest in these patients. CRY2 is a circadian gene that participates in regulation of the evening oscillator. This is of interest in mood disorders where a lack of switch from evening to morning oscillators has been postulated.We observed a marked diurnal variation in human CRY2 mRNA levels from peripheral blood mononuclear cells and a significant up-regulation (P = 0.020) following one-night total sleep deprivation, a known antidepressant. In depressed bipolar patients, levels of CRY2 mRNA were decreased (P = 0.029) and a complete lack of increase was observed following sleep deprivation. To investigate a possible genetic contribution, we undertook SNP genotyping of the CRY2 gene in two independent population-based samples from Sweden (118 cases and 1011 controls) and Finland (86 cases and 1096 controls). The CRY2 gene was significantly associated with winter depression in both samples (haplotype analysis in Swedish and Finnish samples: OR = 1.8, P = 0.0059 and OR = 1.8, P = 0.00044, respectively).We propose that a CRY2 locus is associated with vulnerability for depression, and that mechanisms of action involve dysregulation of CRY2 expression