Modelling Planner-Carrier Interactions in Road Freight Transport: Optimization of Road Maintenance Costs Via Overloading Control

A bi-level modelling approach is proposed to represent the interaction between the vehicle loading practices of road freight transport carriers, and the decisions of a road planning authority responsible both for road maintenance and for the enforcement of overloading control. At the lower (reactive) level, the overloading decisions of the carriers impact on road maintenance expenditure, while at the upper (anticipatory) level the planner decides fine and enforcement levels by anticipating the responses of the carriers. A case study using data from Mexico is used to illustrate the method

Using Discrete Choice Experiment with duration to model EQ-5D-5L health state preferences: Testing experimental design strategies

Background: Discrete choice experiments incorporating duration can be used to derive health state values for EQ-5D-5L. Yet, methodological issues relating to the duration attribute and the optimal way to select health states remain. The aims of this study were to: test increasing the number of duration levels and choice sets where duration varies (aim 1); compare designs with zero and non-zero prior values (aim 2); and investigate a novel, two-stage design to incorporate prior values (aim 3). Methods: Informed by zero and non-zero prior values, two efficient designs were developed, each consisting of 120 EQ-5D-5L health profile pairs with one of six duration levels (aims 1 and 2). Another 120 health state pairs were selected, with one of six duration levels allocated in a second stage based on existing estimated utility of the states (aim 3). An online sample of 2,002 members of the UK general population completed 10 choice sets each. Differences across the regression coefficients from the three designs were assessed. Results: The zero prior value design produced a model with coefficients that were generally logically ordered, but the non-zero prior value design resulted in a set of less ordered coefficients where some differed significantly. The two-stage design resulted in ordered and significant coefficients. The non-zero prior value design may include more “difficult” choice sets, based on the proportions choosing each profile. Conclusions: There is some indication of compromised “respondent efficiency”, suggesting that the use of non-zero prior values will not necessarily result in better overall precision. It is feasible to design discrete choice experiments in two stages by allocating duration values to EQ-5D-5L health state pairs based on estimates from prior studies

Non-invasive assessment of peripheral arterial disease: Automated ankle brachial index measurement and pulse volume analysis compared to duplex scan

Objectives: This cross-sectional study aimed to individually and cumulatively compare sensitivity and specificity of the (1) ankle brachial index and (2) pulse volume waveform analysis recorded by the same automated device, with the presence or absence of peripheral arterial disease being verified by ultrasound duplex scan. Methods: Patients (n=205) referred for lower limb arterial assessment underwent ankle brachial index measurement and pulse volume waveform recording using volume plethysmography, followed by ultrasound duplex scan. The presence of peripheral arterial disease was recorded if ankle brachial index 50% was evident with ultrasound duplex scan. Outcome measure was agreement between the measured ankle brachial index and interpretation of pulse volume waveform for peripheral arterial disease diagnosis, using ultrasound duplex scan as the reference standard. Results: Sensitivity of ankle brachial index was 79%, specificity 91% and overall accuracy 88%. Pulse volume waveform sensitivity was 97%, specificity 81% and overall accuracy 85%. The combined sensitivity of ankle brachial index and pulse volume waveform was 100%, specificity 76% and overall accuracy 85%. Conclusion: Combining these two diagnostic modalities within one device provided a highly accurate method of ruling out peripheral arterial disease, which could be utilised in primary care to safely reduce unnecessary secondary care referrals

Understanding valuation of travel time changes: are preferences different under different stated choice design settings?

Stated choice (SC) experiments are the most popular method to estimate the value of travel time changes (VTTC) of a population. In the simplest VTTC experiment, the SC design variables are time changes and cost changes. The levels of these variables create a particular setting from which preferences are inferred. This paper tries to answer the question “do preferences vary with SC settings?”. For this, we investigate the role of the variables used in the SC experiment on the estimation of the set of VTTC (i.e. mean and covariates). Ideally, one would like to observe the same individuals completing different SC experiments. Since that option is not available, an alternative approach is to use a large dataset of responses, and split it according to different levels of the variable of interest. We refer to this as partial data analysis. The estimation of the same model on each sub-sample provides insights into potential effects of the variable of interest. This approach is applied in relation to three design variables on the data for the last national VTTC study in the UK, using state-of-the-art model specifications. The results show several ways in which the estimated set of VTTC can be affected by the levels of SC design variables. We conclude that model estimates (including the VTTC and covariates) are different in different settings. Hence by focussing the survey on specific settings, sample level results will be affected accordingly. Our findings have implications for appraisal and can inform the construction of future SC experiments

Genetic variants in novel pathways influence blood pressure and cardiovascular disease risk.

Blood pressure is a heritable trait influenced by several biological pathways and responsive to environmental stimuli. Over one billion people worldwide have hypertension (≥140 mm Hg systolic blood pressure or  ≥90 mm Hg diastolic blood pressure). Even small increments in blood pressure are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events. This genome-wide association study of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, which used a multi-stage design in 200,000 individuals of European descent, identified sixteen novel loci: six of these loci contain genes previously known or suspected to regulate blood pressure (GUCY1A3-GUCY1B3, NPR3-C5orf23, ADM, FURIN-FES, GOSR2, GNAS-EDN3); the other ten provide new clues to blood pressure physiology. A genetic risk score based on 29 genome-wide significant variants was associated with hypertension, left ventricular wall thickness, stroke and coronary artery disease, but not kidney disease or kidney function. We also observed associations with blood pressure in East Asian, South Asian and African ancestry individuals. Our findings provide new insights into the genetics and biology of blood pressure, and suggest potential novel therapeutic pathways for cardiovascular disease prevention

Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: a comparative risk assessment

Background High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. Methods We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of populationbased health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the eff ects of risk factors on cause-specifi c mortality from metaanalyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for- each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the eff ects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specifi c population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specifi c deaths. We obtained cause-specifi c mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the fi nal estimates. Findings In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10\ub78 million deaths, 95% CI 10\ub71\u201311\ub75) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined eff ect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7\ub71 million deaths, 6\ub76\u20137\ub76) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined eff ects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. Interpretation The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing eff ect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the globalresponse to non-communicable diseases

Central blood pressure and pulse wave velocity: relationship to target organ damage and cardiovascular morbidity-mortality in diabetic patients or metabolic syndrome. An observational prospective study. LOD-DIABETES study protocol

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Diabetic patients show an increased prevalence of non-dipping arterial pressure pattern, target organ damage and elevated arterial stiffness. These alterations are associated with increased cardiovascular risk.</p> <p>The objectives of this study are the following: to evaluate the prognostic value of central arterial pressure and pulse wave velocity in relation to the incidence and outcome of target organ damage and the appearance of cardiovascular episodes (cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction, chest pain and stroke) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus or metabolic syndrome.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p><b>Design</b>: This is an observational prospective study with 5 years duration, of which the first year corresponds to patient inclusion and initial evaluation, and the remaining four years to follow-up.</p> <p><b>Setting</b>: The study will be carried out in the urban primary care setting.</p> <p><b>Study population</b>: Consecutive sampling will be used to include patients diagnosed with type 2 diabetes between 20-80 years of age. A total of 110 patients meeting all the inclusion criteria and none of the exclusion criteria will be included.</p> <p><b>Measurements</b>: Patient age and sex, family and personal history of cardiovascular disease, and cardiovascular risk factors. Height, weight, heart rate and abdominal circumference. Laboratory tests: hemoglobin, lipid profile, creatinine, microalbuminuria, glomerular filtration rate, blood glucose, glycosylated hemoglobin, blood insulin, fibrinogen and high sensitivity C-reactive protein. Clinical and 24-hour ambulatory (home) blood pressure monitoring and self-measured blood pressure. Common carotid artery ultrasound for the determination of mean carotid intima-media thickness. Electrocardiogram for assessing left ventricular hypertrophy. Ankle-brachial index. Retinal vascular study based on funduscopy with non-mydriatic retinography and evaluation of pulse wave morphology and pulse wave velocity using the SphygmoCor system. The medication used for diabetes, arterial hypertension and hyperlipidemia will be registered, together with antiplatelet drugs.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The results of this study will help to know and quantify the prognostic value of central arterial pressure and pulse wave velocity in relation to the evolution of the subclinical target organ damage markers and the possible incidence of cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01065155</p

Cost-Effectiveness of New Cardiac and Vascular Rehabilitation Strategies for Patients with Coronary Artery Disease

Objective: Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) often hinders the cardiac rehabilitation program. The aim of this study was evaluating the relative cost-effectiveness of new rehabilitation strategies which include the diagnosis and treatment of PAD in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoing cardiac rehabilitation. Data Sources: Best-available evidence was retrieved from literature and combined with primary data from 231 patients. Methods: We developed a Markov decision model to compare the following treatment strategies: 1. cardiac rehabilitation only; 2. ankle-brachial index (ABI) if cardiac rehabilitation fails followed by diagnostic work-up and revascularization for PAD if needed; 3. ABI prior to cardiac rehabilitation followed by diagnostic work-up and revascularization for PAD if needed. Quality-adjusted-life years (QALYs), life-time costs (US $), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER), and gain in net health benefits (NHB) in QALY equivalents were calculated. A threshold willingness-to-pay of$75 000 was used. Results: ABI if cardiac rehabilitation fails was the most favorable strategy with an ICER of $44 251 per QALY gained and an incremental NHB compared to cardiac rehabilitation only of 0.03 QALYs (95$75 000/QALY. After sensitivity analysis, a combined cardiac and vascular rehabilitation program increased the success rate and would dominate the other two strategies with total lifetime costs of $30 246 a quality-adjusted life expectancy of 3.84 years, and an incremental NHB of 0.06 QALYs (95%CI:−0.24, 0.46) compared to current practice. The results were robust for other different input parameters. Conclusion: ABI measurement if cardiac rehabilitation fails followed by a diagnostic work-up and revascularization for PAD if needed are potentially cost-effective compared to cardiac rehabilitation only

Development and evaluation of an instrument for the critical appraisal of randomized controlled trials of natural products

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The efficacy of natural products (NPs) is being evaluated using randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with increasing frequency, yet a search of the literature did not identify a widely accepted critical appraisal instrument developed specifically for use with NPs. The purpose of this project was to develop and evaluate a critical appraisal instrument that is sufficiently rigorous to be used in evaluating RCTs of conventional medicines, and also has a section specific for use with single entity NPs, including herbs and natural sourced chemicals.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Three phases of the project included: 1) using experts and a Delphi process to reach consensus on a list of items essential in describing the identity of an NP; 2) compiling a list of non-NP items important for evaluating the quality of an RCT using systematic review methodology to identify published instruments and then compiling item categories that were part of a validated instrument and/or had empirical evidence to support their inclusion and 3) conducting a field test to compare the new instrument to a published instrument for usefulness in evaluating the quality of 3 RCTs of a NP and in applying results to practice.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Two Delphi rounds resulted in a list of 15 items essential in describing NPs. Seventeen item categories fitting inclusion criteria were identified from published instruments for conventional medicines. The new assessment instrument was assembled based on content of the two lists and the addition of a Reviewer's Conclusion section. The field test of the new instrument showed good criterion validity. Participants found it useful in translating evidence from RCTs to practice.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>A new instrument for the critical appraisal of RCTs of NPs was developed and tested. The instrument is distinct from other available assessment instruments for RCTs of NPs in its systematic development and validation. The instrument is ready to be used by pharmacy students, health care practitioners and academics and will continue to be refined as required.</p

Association between C reactive protein and coronary heart disease: mendelian randomisation analysis based on individual participant data.

OBJECTIVE: To use genetic variants as unconfounded proxies of C reactive protein concentration to study its causal role in coronary heart disease. DESIGN: Mendelian randomisation meta-analysis of individual participant data from 47 epidemiological studies in 15 countries. PARTICIPANTS: 194 418 participants, including 46 557 patients with prevalent or incident coronary heart disease. Information was available on four CRP gene tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (rs3093077, rs1205, rs1130864, rs1800947), concentration of C reactive protein, and levels of other risk factors. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Risk ratios for coronary heart disease associated with genetically raised C reactive protein versus risk ratios with equivalent differences in C reactive protein concentration itself, adjusted for conventional risk factors and variability in risk factor levels within individuals. RESULTS: CRP variants were each associated with up to 30% per allele difference in concentration of C reactive protein (P<10(-34)) and were unrelated to other risk factors. Risk ratios for coronary heart disease per additional copy of an allele associated with raised C reactive protein were 0.93 (95% confidence interval 0.87 to 1.00) for rs3093077; 1.00 (0.98 to 1.02) for rs1205; 0.98 (0.96 to 1.00) for rs1130864; and 0.99 (0.94 to 1.03) for rs1800947. In a combined analysis, the risk ratio for coronary heart disease was 1.00 (0.90 to 1.13) per 1 SD higher genetically raised natural log (ln) concentration of C reactive protein. The genetic findings were discordant with the risk ratio observed for coronary heart disease of 1.33 (1.23 to 1.43) per 1 SD higher circulating ln concentration of C reactive protein in prospective studies (P=0.001 for difference). CONCLUSION: Human genetic data indicate that C reactive protein concentration itself is unlikely to be even a modest causal factor in coronary heart disease