Non-Parametric Analysis of ENSO Impacts on Yield Distributions: Implications for GRP Contract Design

The paper reports preliminary results of non-parametric analysis of historical and crop model generated peanut yield series in the Southwest Georgia. The results suggest ENSO phase dependent differences in yield distributions that are similar for both the simulated and actual series. The differences are magnified in GRP insurance premiums.Crop Production/Industries,

CMBPol Mission Concept Study: Prospects for polarized foreground removal

In this report we discuss the impact of polarized foregrounds on a future CMBPol satellite mission. We review our current knowledge of Galactic polarized emission at microwave frequencies, including synchrotron and thermal dust emission. We use existing data and our understanding of the physical behavior of the sources of foreground emission to generate sky templates, and start to assess how well primordial gravitational wave signals can be separated from foreground contaminants for a CMBPol mission. At the estimated foreground minimum of ~100 GHz, the polarized foregrounds are expected to be lower than a primordial polarization signal with tensor-to-scalar ratio r=0.01, in a small patch (~1%) of the sky known to have low Galactic emission. Over 75% of the sky we expect the foreground amplitude to exceed the primordial signal by about a factor of eight at the foreground minimum and on scales of two degrees. Only on the largest scales does the polarized foreground amplitude exceed the primordial signal by a larger factor of about 20. The prospects for detecting an r=0.01 signal including degree-scale measurements appear promising, with 5 sigma_r ~0.003 forecast from multiple methods. A mission that observes a range of scales offers better prospects from the foregrounds perspective than one targeting only the lowest few multipoles. We begin to explore how optimizing the composition of frequency channels in the focal plane can maximize our ability to perform component separation, with a range of typically 40 < nu < 300 GHz preferred for ten channels. Foreground cleaning methods are already in place to tackle a CMBPol mission data set, and further investigation of the optimization and detectability of the primordial signal will be useful for mission design.Comment: 42 pages, 14 figures, Foreground Removal Working Group contribution to the CMBPol Mission Concept Study, v2, matches AIP versio

Small-Angle CMB Temperature Anisotropies Induced by Cosmic Strings

We use Nambu-Goto numerical simulations to compute the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature anisotropies induced at arcminute angular scales by a network of cosmic strings in a Friedmann-Lemaitre-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) expanding universe. We generate 84 statistically independent maps on a 7.2 degree field of view, which we use to derive basic statistical estimators such as the one-point distribution and two-point correlation functions. At high multipoles, the mean angular power spectrum of string-induced CMB temperature anisotropies can be described by a power law slowly decaying as \ell^{-p}, with p=0.889 (+0.001,-0.090) (including only systematic errors). Such a behavior suggests that a nonvanishing string contribution to the overall CMB anisotropies may become the dominant source of fluctuations at small angular scales. We therefore discuss how well the temperature gradient magnitude operator can trace strings in the context of a typical arcminute diffraction-limited experiment. Including both the thermal and nonlinear kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effects, the Ostriker-Vishniac effect, and the currently favored adiabatic primary anisotropies, we find that, on such a map, strings should be ``eye visible,'' with at least of order ten distinctive string features observable on a 7.2 degree gradient map, for tensions U down to GU \simeq 2 x 10^{-7} (in Planck units). This suggests that, with upcoming experiments such as the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT), optimal non-Gaussian, string-devoted statistical estimators applied to small-angle CMB temperature or gradient maps may put stringent constraints on a possible cosmic string contribution to the CMB anisotropies.Comment: 17 pages, 9 figures. v2: matches published version, minor clarifications added, typo in Eq. (8) fixed, results unchange

Searching for Signatures of Cosmic Superstrings in the CMB

Because cosmic superstrings generically form junctions and gauge theoretic strings typically do not, junctions may provide a signature to distinguish between cosmic superstrings and gauge theoretic cosmic strings. In cosmic microwave background anisotropy maps, cosmic strings lead to distinctive line discontinuities. String junctions lead to junctions in these line discontinuities. In turn, edge detection algorithms such as the Canny algorithm can be used to search for signatures of strings in anisotropy maps. We apply the Canny algorithm to simulated maps which contain the effects of cosmic strings with and without string junctions. The Canny algorithm produces edge maps. To distinguish between edge maps from string simulations with and without junctions, we examine the density distribution of edges and pixels crossed by edges. We find that in string simulations without Gaussian noise (such as produced by the dominant inflationary fluctuations) our analysis of the output data from the Canny algorithm can clearly distinguish between simulations with and without string junctions. In the presence of Gaussian noise at the level expected from the current bounds on the contribution of cosmic strings to the total power spectrum of density fluctuations, the distinction between models with and without junctions is more difficult. However, by carefully analyzing the data the models can still be differentiated.Comment: 15 page

CMBPol Mission Concept Study: Foreground Science Knowledge and Prospects

We report on our knowledge of Galactic foregrounds, as well as on how a CMB satellite mission aiming at detecting a primordial B-mode signal (CMBPol) will contribute to improving it. We review the observational and analysis techniques used to constrain the structure of the Galactic magnetic field, whose presence is responsible for the polarization of Galactic emissions. Although our current understanding of the magnetized interstellar medium is somewhat limited, dramatic improvements in our knowledge of its properties are expected by the time CMBPol flies. Thanks to high resolution and high sensitivity instruments observing the whole sky at frequencies between 30 GHz and 850 GHz, CMBPol will not only improve this picture by observing the synchrotron emission from our galaxy, but also help constrain dust models. Polarized emission from interstellar dust indeed dominates over any other signal in CMBPol's highest frequency channels. Observations at these wavelengths, combined with ground-based studies of starlight polarization, will therefore enable us to improve our understanding of dust properties and of the mechanism(s) responsible for the alignment of dust grains with the Galactic magnetic field. CMBPol will also shed new light on observations that are presently not well understood. Morphological studies of anomalous dust and synchrotron emissions will indeed constrain their natures and properties, while searching for fluctuations in the emission from heliospheric dust will test our understanding of the circumheliospheric interstellar medium. Finally, acquiring more information on the properties of extra-Galactic sources will be necessary in order to maximize the cosmological constraints extracted from CMBPol's observations of CMB lensing. (abridged)Comment: 43 pages, 7 figures, 2 table

The 21 cm Signature of Shock Heated and Diffuse Cosmic String Wakes

The analysis of the 21 cm signature of cosmic string wakes is extended in several ways. First we consider the constraints on $G\mu$ from the absorption signal of shock heated wakes laid down much later than matter radiation equality. Secondly we analyze the signal of diffuse wake, that is those wakes in which there is a baryon overdensity but which have not shock heated. Finally we compare the size of these signals compared to the expected thermal noise per pixel which dominates over the background cosmic gas brightness temperature and find that the cosmic string signal will exceed the thermal noise of an individual pixel in the Square Kilometre Array for string tensions $G\mu > 2.5 \times 10^{-8}$.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, Appendix added, version published in JCA

Cosmic strings and Natural Inflation

In the present work we discuss cosmic strings in natural inflation. Our analysis is based entirely on the CMB quadrupole temperature anisotropy and on the existing upper bound on the cosmic string tension. Our results show that the allowed range for both parameters of the inflationary model is very different from the range obtained recently if cosmic strings are formed at the same time with inflation, while if strings are formed after inflation we find that the parameters of the inflationary model are similar to the ones obtained recently.Comment: 12 pages, 0 tables, 4 figures, accepted for publication in JHE