Forecasting Births Using Google

Abstract de la ponencia[EN] Monitoring fertility change is particularly important for policy and planning purposes. New data may help us in this monitoring. We propose a new leading indicator based on Google web-searches. We then test its predictive power using US data. In a deep out-of sample comparison we show that popular time series specifications augmented with web-search-related data improve their forecasting performance at forecast horizons of 6 to 24 months. The superior performance of these augmented models is confirmed by formal tests of equal forecast accuracy. Moreover, our results survive a falsification test and are confirmed also when a forecast horse race is conducted using different out-of-sample tests, and at the state rather than at the federal level. Conditioning on the same information set, the forecast error of our best model for predicting 2009 births is 35% lower than the Census bureau projections. Our findings indicate the potential use of Googe web-searches in monitoring fertility change and in informing fertility forecasts.Billari, F.; D'amuri, F.; Marcucci, J. (2016). Forecasting Births Using Google. En CARMA 2016: 1st International Conference on Advanced Research Methods in Analytics. Editorial Universitat Politècnica de València. 119-119. https://doi.org/10.4995/CARMA2016.2015.4301OCS11911

L'insolvenza "civile" si fa strada nel moderno diritto dell'economia

Nella parte prima parte verranno declinati i profili storici ed concetti definitori fondamentali di impresa, insolvenza e crisi, sovraindebitamento e concorso che rappresentano la base imprescindibile dell’analisi sulla crisi del debitore “civile”. Sempre nel primo capitolo verranno presi in rassegna i tratti fondamentali della disciplina del sovraindebitamento e quella sulla composizione negoziale delle crisi aziendali di cui al Regio Decreto 16 marzo 1942, n. 267. Nella seconda parte del lavoro si avrà riguardo della struttura delle tre procedure di sovraindebitamento, dei presupposti, della disciplina applicabile in relazione ai contratti in corso di esecuzione, della revocabilità delle operazioni compiute prima dell’accesso alle procedure e della costituzione, delle funzioni e dei poteri attribuiti all’organismo di composizione della crisi, anche alla luce del DM 24 settembre 2014 n. 202 (pubblicato nella GU del 27 gennaio 2015, n. 21). Sempre in tema di concorso saranno approfonditi gli aspetti maggiormente critici in relazione alla disciplina del sovraindebitamento ed il rapporto con le regole della legge fallimentare. In particolare si avrà riguardo del trattamento dei creditori con titolo di prelazione e di quelli chirografari, degli effetti dell’apertura del concorso, del diritto di voice del ceto creditorio dissenziente, del ruolo del giudice e dei contratti pendenti nelle procedure di cui alla legge n. 3/2012. Ebbene, tale analisi è stata resa ancor più difficoltosa dalla scarsa applicazione di questo strumento e dai pochissimi provvedimenti giurisprudenziali editi in materia. Dunque si dovrà far fronte alla ricerca di alcune fondamentali regole di funzionamento “facendo tesoro” dei pochi materiali editi da giurisprudenza e da dottrina, oltreché del metodo testé indicato. Nel terzo capitolo verrà proposta poi un’analisi sulle prospettive di gestione della crisi per tre soggetti economici assai diversi che hanno in comune – seppure con marcate distinzioni - l’esclusione dal perimetro della fallibilità, ovvero le crisi imprese agricole, le c.d. società “in house” . Verrà approfondito il concetto di impresa agricola anzitutto con riguardo al rapporto tra agrarietà e commercialità dopo la riforma dell’imprenditore agricolo del 2001, successivamente verranno individuate le soluzione per la composizione della crisi cui potrà accedere questo soggetto. Quanto alle società “in house” si darà conto dell’ampio dibattito dottrinale e giurisprudenziale sulla fallibilità o meno degli enti territoriali, delle imprese pubbliche e delle società c.d. in “mano pubblica” e, di conseguenza, si cercherà di indicare se, ed entro quali parametri, essa possa essere considerata fallibile. In conclusione, il terzo capitolo si occuperà della possibilità di estendere le procedure di composizione delle crisi da sovraindebitamento anche ai soci illimitatamente responsabili, ai fideiussori o ai garanti di società (di persona o capitali) fallibili soggette alle procedure concorsuali tradizionali (fallimento, liquidazione coatta amministrativa e concordato preventivo). In particolare si avrà riguardo del rapporto con le regole in tema di esdebitazione previste dalla legge fallimentare e con la possibilità (o meno) di considerare il socio - fideiussore alla stregua di un consumatore (con tutti i benefici derivanti anche in tema di applicazione delle procedure di sovaindebitamento).This study investigates a specific kind of insolvency, concerning the small-sized entrepreneurial firms characterized by a dependence on an owner – manager. Particularly, the research will focuses on the regulation of factory farm and firm's guarantor bankruptcy according to the new Italian Overindebtedness Proceedings Law (Law n. 3/2012(introduced in Italy as amanended with the Law Decree n. 179/2012)

Freight distribution performance indicators for service quality planning in large transportation networks

This paper studies the use of performance indicators in routing problems to estimate how transportation cost is affected by the quality of service offered. The quality of service is assumed to be directly dependent on the size of the time windows. Smaller time windows mean better service. Three performance indicators are introduced. These indicators are calculated directly from the data without the need of a solution method. The introduced indicators are based mainly on a "request compatibility", which describes whether two visits can be scheduled consecutively in a route. Other two indicators are introduced, which get their values from a greedy constructive heuristic. After introducing the indicators, the correlation between indicators and transportation cost is examined. It is concluded that the indicators give a good first estimation on the transportation cost incurred when providing a certain quality of service. These indicators can be calculated easily in one of the first planning steps without the need of a sophisticated solution tool. The contribution of the paper is the introduction of a simple set of performance indicators that can be used to estimate the transportation cost of a routing problem with time window

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular events in atrial fibrillation. a prospective multicenter cohort study

Whether non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events (CVEs) independently from metabolic syndrome (MetS) is still matter of debate. Aim of the study was to investigate the risk of CVEs in a high-risk population of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) according to the presence of MetS and NAFLD. Prospective observational multicenter study including 1,735 patients with non-valvular AF treated with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) or direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). NAFLD was defined by a fatty liver index≥60. We categorized patients in 4 groups: 0=neither MetS or NAFLD (38.6%), 1=NAFLD alone (12.4%), 2=MetS alone (19.3%), 3=both MetS and NAFLD (29.7%). Primary endpoint was a composite of CVEs. Mean age was 75.4±9.4years, and 41.4% of patients were women. During a mean follow-up of 34.1±22.8months (4,926.8 patient-years), 155 CVEs were recorded (incidence rate of 3.1%/year): 55 occurred in Group 0 (2.92%/year), 12 in Group 1 (2.17%/year), 45 in Group 2 (4.58%/year) and 43 in Group 3 (2.85%/year). Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that use of DOACs, and female sex were inversely associated with CVEs, whilst age, heart failure, previous cardiac and cerebrovascular events, and group 2 (Group 2, Hazard Ratio 1.517, 95% Confidence Interval, 1.010-2.280) were directly associated with CVEs. In patients with AF, MetS increases the risk of CVEs. Patients with NAFLD alone have lower cardiovascular risk but may experience higher liver-related complications

Posterior-stabilized (PS) total knee arthroplasty: a matched pair analysis of a classic and its evolutional design

Background: Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) designs continue to be modified to optimize patient's outcome. This study was designed to compare clinical and radiological results of classic worldwide used TKA posterior-stabilized (PS) design to those of its recent evolution. Methods: A consecutive group of 100 patients undergoing TKA using a classic cemented fixed-bearing PS TKA system was matched by age, gender, body max index to 100 patients having the newer cemented fixed-bearing PS design, both by the same manufacturer. Patients were assessed preoperatively, at 12 months and at 24 months minimum follow-up (range, 24-46) in a standard prospective fashion. The outcome assessments used were the Oxford Knee Score, the Knee Society Score, range of motion, and a satisfaction survey. A 2-sample t test comparing the 2 groups was performed. Results: No patients were lost at follow-up. At 2-year follow-up, differences in clinical and radiological Knee Society Score (P = .09), Oxford Score (P = .08), and overall satisfaction rate did not reach statistical significance. Implant group 2 showed a statistically significant decrease in postoperative anterior knee pain (P = .006). At final follow-up, 16% of group 1 knees achieved > 130° flexion compared with 37% in group 2 (P = .0009). There were 2 revisions for any reason in group 1 and none in group 2. Conclusions: Design modifications applied to the newer TKA system allowed greater flexion and lower patellofemoral complications but did not appear to achieve better overall clinical scores