What happened to the fig tree? : an empirical study in psychological type and biblical hermeneutics

The SIFT method of biblical hermeneutics and liturgical preaching has its roots in Jungian psychological type theory and maintains that the reading and interpretation of text is shaped by individual preferences within the perceiving process (sensing and intuition) and within the evaluating process (thinking and feeling). The present study tests the empirical foundation for this method by examining the way in which three groups of participants familiar with handling scripture (N = 31, 14, and 47) interpret the Marcan narrative concerning the cleansing of the temple and the cursing of the fig tree. The data provide further support for the psychological principles underpinning the SIFT method

Tooth characters of protohippine horses with special reference to species from the Merychippus zone, California

The critical review of equine tooth characters attempted in this paper is the result of a study of the protohippine horses obtained from the Merychippus Zone of the north Coalinga district, California. During the conduct of extensive excavations in this zone since 1928 by the California Institute, more than two thousand teeth of the genus Merychippus have been collected. In addition to the types represented by the equine material, a number of associated land mammals have been secured. The faunal list, which includes some fifteen species, suggests that this locality occupies a stratigraphic position approximately late middle Miocene in age. The variation displayed in the dental characters of the merychippine material from the Merychippus Zone necessitated comparisons with cheek-teeth of Equidae from practically all of the Miocene formations furnishing vertebrate remains in the Pacific Coast and Great Basin Provinces. A comprehensive study of these collections clearly demonstrates that many of the cheek-tooth characters employed in the description of type specimens of fossil horses are variable to an extent which renders them unreliable in a determination of species. The variation of these characters within a large collection also indicates that it is possible for teeth referable to a particular species to have a wider stratigraphic range than has been hitherto appreciated. The conclusion is reached that the presence of a species has less value in reaching an age determination of the strata in which it occurs than evidence furnished by an association of several species

Weather forecasting for weather derivatives : [revised version: January 2, 2004]

We take a simple time-series approach to modeling and forecasting daily average temperature in U.S. cities, and we inquire systematically as to whether it may prove useful from the vantage point of participants in the weather derivatives market. The answer is, perhaps surprisingly, yes. Time-series modeling reveals conditional mean dynamics, and crucially, strong conditional variance dynamics, in daily average temperature, and it reveals sharp differences between the distribution of temperature and the distribution of temperature surprises. As we argue, it also holds promise for producing the long-horizon predictive densities crucial for pricing weather derivatives, so that additional inquiry into time-series weather forecasting methods will likely prove useful in weather derivatives contexts

Stock returns and expected business conditions : half a century of direct evidence

We explore the macro/finance interface in the context of equity markets. In particular, using half a century of Livingston expected business conditions data we characterize directly the impact of expected business conditions on expected excess stock returns. Expected business conditions consistently affect expected excess returns in a statistically and economically significant counter-cyclical fashion: depressed expected business conditions are associated with high expected excess returns. Moreover, inclusion of expected business conditions in otherwise standard predictive return regressions substantially reduces the explanatory power of the conventional financial predictors, including the dividend yield, default premium, and term premium, while simultaneously increasing R2. Expected business conditions retain predictive power even after controlling for an important and recently introduced non-financial predictor, the generalized consumption/wealth ratio, which accords with the view that expected business conditions play a role in asset pricing different from and complementary to that of the consumption/wealth ratio. We argue that time-varying expected business conditions likely capture time-varying risk, while time-varying consumption/wealth may capture time-varying risk aversion. Klassifikation: G1

Mystical orientation and the perceiving process : a study among Anglican clergymen

This study examines the hypothesised link between mystical orientation and the perceiving process within the Jungian model of psychological type. Data were provided by 232 Anglican clergymen serving in the Church in Wales who completed both the Francis-Louden Mystical Orientation Scale and the Francis Psychological Type Scales. The data demonstrated that intuitive types recorded significantly higher scores than sensing types on the index of mystical orientation, supporting the hypothesis based on Ross' thesis

Sudden Flight and True Sudden Stops

We extend the sudden stops literature by allowing crisis episodes to be caused by either the retreat of global investors, as is assumed but not shown in the extant literature, or the sudden flight of local investors. We find that almost half of the previously defined sudden stops are actually episodes of sudden flight. Compared to sudden flight, true sudden stops are bunched and are associated with greater slowdowns in economic activity and sharper currency depreciations. We show that the empirical regularities of sudden flight and true sudden stops are consistent with theoretical models that incorporate gross capital flows and information asymmetries.international capital flows, capital flight, emerging market crises