A frequentist framework of inductive reasoning

Reacting against the limitation of statistics to decision procedures, R. A. Fisher proposed for inductive reasoning the use of the fiducial distribution, a parameter-space distribution of epistemological probability transferred directly from limiting relative frequencies rather than computed according to the Bayes update rule. The proposal is developed as follows using the confidence measure of a scalar parameter of interest. (With the restriction to one-dimensional parameter space, a confidence measure is essentially a fiducial probability distribution free of complications involving ancillary statistics.) A betting game establishes a sense in which confidence measures are the only reliable inferential probability distributions. The equality between the probabilities encoded in a confidence measure and the coverage rates of the corresponding confidence intervals ensures that the measure's rule for assigning confidence levels to hypotheses is uniquely minimax in the game. Although a confidence measure can be computed without any prior distribution, previous knowledge can be incorporated into confidence-based reasoning. To adjust a p-value or confidence interval for prior information, the confidence measure from the observed data can be combined with one or more independent confidence measures representing previous agent opinion. (The former confidence measure may correspond to a posterior distribution with frequentist matching of coverage probabilities.) The representation of subjective knowledge in terms of confidence measures rather than prior probability distributions preserves approximate frequentist validity.Comment: major revisio

Mutual information rate and bounds for it

The amount of information exchanged per unit of time between two nodes in a dynamical network or between two data sets is a powerful concept for analysing complex systems. This quantity, known as the mutual information rate (MIR), is calculated from the mutual information, which is rigorously defined only for random systems. Moreover, the definition of mutual information is based on probabilities of significant events. This work offers a simple alternative way to calculate the MIR in dynamical (deterministic) networks or between two data sets (not fully deterministic), and to calculate its upper and lower bounds without having to calculate probabilities, but rather in terms of well known and well defined quantities in dynamical systems. As possible applications of our bounds, we study the relationship between synchronisation and the exchange of information in a system of two coupled maps and in experimental networks of coupled oscillators

Perceptions of teachers of the application of science process skills in the teaching of Geography in secondary schools in the Free State province

This article reports on teachers' perceptions of the application of science process skills in the teaching of Geography in secondary schools in the Free State province. A teachers' questionnaire on the application of the science process skills in the teaching of Geography was constructed and the questionnaire was content validated against the theoretical assumptions supported by the literature and practical applications of the subject. The questionnaires were distributed to 150 respondents and 71 completed questionnaires were returned for further analysis. The responses to the items of the questionnaire were subjected to a principal component factor analysis and a varimax method of rotation. Two prominent factors were identified and investigated. Factor 1 was labeled "basic science process skills" and reaffirmed teachers' understanding of the basic process skills as autonomous and independent functions. The second factor confirmed the existence of a higher level of advanced and integrated process skills that build upon the basic or foundational process skills. These results confirmed the researchers' assumption that respondents could distinguish cognitively between these two very prominent constructs. They were comfortable with the fact that the science processes applicable to the teaching of Geography could be grouped into two main distinctive clusters or factors. The homogeneous clustering of items also emphasized the understanding that the classical science process skills could easily be applied to the teaching of Geography. This assumption was supported by the empirical investigation and findings. In addition, the results supported the hypothesis that although teachers did not apply integrated science process skills to the teaching of Geography on a regular basis, they were well-acquainted with the fact that these skills remain an important facet in the teaching of Geography in schools. South African Journal of Education Vol.24(1) 2004: 10-1

Transfer RNA-derived small RNAs in the cancer transcriptome

The cellular lifetime includes stages such as differentiation, proliferation, division, senescence and apoptosis.These stages are driven by a strictly ordered process of transcription dynamics. Molecular disruption to RNA polymerase assembly, chromatin remodelling and transcription factor binding through to RNA editing, splicing, post-transcriptional regulation and ribosome scanning can result in significant costs arising from genome instability. Cancer development is one example of when such disruption takes place. RNA silencing is a term used to describe the effects of post-transcriptional gene silencing mediated by a diverse set of small RNA molecules. Small RNAs are crucial for regulating gene expression and microguarding genome integrity.RNA silencing studies predominantly focus on small RNAs such as microRNAs, short-interfering RNAs and piwi-interacting RNAs. We describe an emerging renewal of inter-est in a‘larger’small RNA, the transfer RNA (tRNA).Precisely generated tRNA-derived small RNAs, named tRNA halves (tiRNAs) and tRNA fragments (tRFs), have been reported to be abundant with dysregulation associated with cancer. Transfection of tiRNAs inhibits protein translation by displacing eukaryotic initiation factors from messenger RNA (mRNA) and inaugurating stress granule formation.Knockdown of an overexpressed tRF inhibits cancer cell proliferation. Recovery of lacking tRFs prevents cancer metastasis. The dual oncogenic and tumour-suppressive role is typical of functional small RNAs. We review recent reports on tiRNA and tRF discovery and biogenesis, identification and analysis from next-generation sequencing data and a mechanistic animal study to demonstrate their physiological role in cancer biology. We propose tRNA-derived small RNA-mediated RNA silencing is an innate defence mechanism to prevent oncogenic translation. We expect that cancer cells are percipient to their ablated control of transcription and attempt to prevent loss of genome control through RNA silencing

Effective suckling in relation to naked maternal-infant body contact in the first hour of life: an observation study

Background Best practice guidelines to promote breastfeeding suggest that (i) mothers hold their babies in naked body contact immediately after birth, (ii) babies remain undisturbed for at least one hour and (iii) breastfeeding assistance be offered during this period. Few studies have closely observed the implementation of these guidelines in practice. We sought to evaluate these practices on suckling achievement within the first hour after birth. Methods Observations of seventy-eight mother-baby dyads recorded newborn feeding behaviours, the help received by mothers and birthing room practices each minute, for sixty minutes. Results Duration of naked body contact between mothers and their newborn babies varied widely from 1 to 60 minutes, as did commencement of suckling (range = 10 to 60 minutes). Naked maternal-infant body contact immediately after birth, uninterrupted for at least thirty minutes did not predict effective suckling within the first hour of birth. Newborns were four times more likely to sustain deep rhythmical suckling when their chin made contact with their mother’s breast as they approached the nipple (OR 3.8; CI 1.03 - 14) and if their mothers had given birth previously (OR 6.7; CI 1.35 - 33). Infants who had any naso-oropharyngeal suctioning administered at birth were six times less likely to suckle effectively (OR .176; CI .04 - .9). Conclusion Effective suckling within the first hour of life was associated with a collection of practices including infants positioned so their chin can instinctively nudge the underside of their mother’s breast as they approach to grasp the nipple and attach to suckle. The best type of assistance provided in the birthing room that enables newborns to sustain an effective latch was paying attention to newborn feeding behaviours and not administering naso-oropharyngeal suction routinely

Physical Activity, Sedentary Time and Physical Capability in Early Old Age: British Birth Cohort Study

Purpose To investigate the associations of time spent sedentary, in moderate-to-vigorous-intensity physical activity (MVPA) and physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) with physical capability measures at age 60-64 years. Methods Time spent sedentary and in MVPA and, PAEE were assessed using individually calibrated combined heart rate and movement sensing among 1727 participants from the MRC National Survey of Health and Development in England, Scotland and Wales as part of a detailed clinical assessment undertaken in 2006-2010. Multivariable linear regression models were used to examine the cross-sectional associations between standardised measures of each of these behavioural variables with grip strength, chair rise and timed up-&-go (TUG) speed and standing balance time. Results Greater time spent in MVPA was associated with higher levels of physical capability; adjusted mean differences in each capability measure per 1standard deviation increase in MVPA time were: grip strength (0.477 kg, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.015 to 0.939), chair rise speed (0.429 stands/min, 95% CI: 0.093 to 0.764), standing balance time (0.028 s, 95% CI: 0.003 to 0.053) and TUG speed (0.019 m/s, 95% CI: 0.011 to 0.026). In contrast, time spent sedentary was associated with lower grip strength (-0.540 kg, 95% CI: -1.013 to -0.066) and TUG speed (-0.011 m/s, 95% CI: -0.019 to -0.004). Associations for PAEE were similar to those for MVPA. Conclusion Higher levels of MVPA and overall physical activity (PAEE) are associated with greater levels of physical capability whereas time spent sedentary is associated with lower levels of capability. Future intervention studies in older adults should focus on both the promotion of physical activity and reduction in time spent sedentary

Changing from a Western to a Mediterranean-style diet does not affect iron or selenium status:Results of the New Dietary Strategies Addressing the Specific Needs of the Elderly Population for Healthy Aging in Europe (NU-AGE) 1-year randomized clinical trial in elderly Europeans

Background: Mediterranean diets limit red meat consumption and increase intakes of high-phytate foods, a combination that could reduce iron status. Conversely, higher intakes of fish, a good source of selenium, could increase selenium status. Objectives: A 1-y randomized controlled trial [New Dietary Strategies Addressing the Specific Needs of the Elderly Population for Healthy Aging in Europe (NU-AGE)] was carried out in older Europeans to investigate the effects of consuming a Mediterraneanstyle diet on indices of inflammation and changes in nutritional status. Methods: Selenium and iron intakes and status biomarkers were measured at baseline and after 1 y in 1294 people aged 65–79 y from 5 European countries (France, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and the United Kingdom) who had been randomly allocated either to a Mediterranean-style diet or to remain on their habitual, Western diet. Results: Estimated selenium intakes increased significantly with the intervention group (P < 0.01), but were not accompanied by changes in serum selenium concentrations. Iron intakes also increased (P < 0.001), but there was no change in iron status. However, when stratified by study center, there were positive effects of the intervention on iron status for serum ferritin for participants in Italy (P = 0.04) and France (P = 0.04) and on soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR) for participants in Poland (P < 0.01). Meat intake decreased and fish intake increased to a greater degree in the intervention group, relative to the controls (P < 0.01 for both), but the overall effects of the intervention on meat and fish intakes were mainly driven by data from Poland and France. Changes in serum selenium in the intervention group were associated with greater changes in serum ferritin (P = 0.01) and body iron (P = 0.01), but not sTfR (P = 0.73); there were no study center × selenium status interactions for the iron biomarkers. Conclusions: Consuming a Mediterranean-style diet for 1 y had no overall effect on iron or selenium status, although there were positive effects on biomarkers of iron status in some countries. The NU-AGE trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01754012. Am J Clin Nutr 2019;00:1–12

Average distances on self-similar sets and higher order average distances of self-similar measures

The purpose of this paper is twofold: (1) we study different notions of the average distance between two points of a self-similar subset of ℝ, and (2) we investigate the asymptotic behaviour of higher order average moments of self-similar measures on self-similar subsets of ℝ

Methods for environment: productivity trade-off analysis in agricultural systems

Trade-off analysis has become an increasingly important approach for evaluating system level outcomes of agricultural production and for prioritising and targeting management interventions in multi-functional agricultural landscapes. We review the strengths and weakness of different techniques available for performing trade-off analysis. These techniques, including mathematical programming and participatory approaches, have developed substantially in recent years aided by mathematical advancement, increased computing power, and emerging insights into systems behaviour. The strengths and weaknesses of the different approaches are identified and discussed, and we make suggestions for a tiered approach for situations with different data availability. This chapter is a modified and extended version of Klapwijk et al. (2014)

AXIOM: advanced X-ray imaging of the magnetosphere

Planetary plasma and magnetic field environments can be studied in two complementary ways—by in situ measurements, or by remote sensing. While the former provide precise information about plasma behaviour, instabilities and dynamics on local scales, the latter offers the global view necessary to understand the overall interaction of the magnetospheric plasma with the solar wind. Some parts of the Earth’s magnetosphere have been remotely sensed, but the majority remains unexplored by this type of measurements. Here we propose a novel and more elegant approach employing remote X-ray imaging techniques, which are now possible thanks to the relatively recent discovery of solar wind charge exchange X-ray emissions in the vicinity of the Earth’s magnetosphere. In this article we describe how an appropriately designed and located X-ray telescope, supported by simultaneous in situ measurements of the solar wind, can be used to image the dayside magnetosphere, magnetosheath and bow shock, with a temporal and spatial resolution sufficient to address several key outstanding questions concerning how the solar wind interacts with the Earth’s magnetosphere on a global level. Global images of the dayside magnetospheric boundaries require vantage points well outside the magnetosphere. Our studies have led us to propose ‘AXIOM: Advanced X-ray Imaging of the Magnetosphere’, a concept mission using a Vega launcher with a LISA Pathfinder-type Propulsion Module to place the spacecraft in a Lissajous orbit around the Earth–Moon L1 point. The model payload consists of an X-ray Wide Field Imager, capable of both imaging and spectroscopy, and an in situ plasma and magnetic field measurement package. This package comprises a Proton-Alpha Sensor, designed to measure the bulk properties of the solar wind, an Ion Composition Analyser, to characterise the minor ion populations in the solar wind that cause charge exchange emission, and a Magnetometer, designed to measure the strength and direction of the solar wind magnetic field. We also show simulations that demonstrate how the proposed X-ray telescope design is capable of imaging the predicted emission from the dayside magnetosphere with the sensitivity and cadence required to achieve the science goals of the mission