Diagnostic work-up of patients presenting in primary care with lower abdominal symptoms:which faecal test and triage strategy should be used?

Bowel endoscopy referrals from primary care have increased steadily over recent years. However, most patients do not have significant colorectal disease (SCD). Therefore, strategies to select those who would benefit most from endoscopy are of current interest. A recent study developed a multivariable diagnostic model for SCD with routine clinical information, extended with quantitative faecal calprotectin (f-C) point-of-care (POC) testing and/or qualitative POC faecal immunochemical test (FIT) for haemoglobin (f-Hb) results. This study used POC tests for both f-C and f-Hb; however, POC tests have many disadvantages and there are several reasons why quantitative measurements of f-Hb are advantageous. Quantitative faecal immunochemical tests have been used very successfully in triage of patients presenting in primary care as a rule-out test. Studies have compared f-C and f-Hb in this clinical context and consider that f-C is not required in diagnosis. A single quantitative f-Hb result, without any clinical information, could be sufficient to decide whom to refer for endoscopy and, because of the significant overlap of symptoms in those with and without SCD, could be the primary investigation performed. Please see related article: http://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-016-0684-5

Spatial Effects of the Social Marketing of Insecticide-Treated Nets on Malaria Morbidity.

Randomized controlled trials have shown that insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) have an impact on both malaria morbidity and mortality. Uniformly high coverage of ITNs characterized these trials and this resulted in some protection of nearby non-users of ITNs. We have now assessed the coverage, distribution pattern and resultant spatial effects in one village in Tanzania where ITNs were distributed in a social marketing programme. The prevalence of parasitaemia, mild anaemia (Hb <11 g/dl) and moderate/severe anaemia (Hb <8 g/dl) in children under five was assessed cross-sectionally. Data on ownership of ITNs were collected and inhabitants' houses were mapped. One year after the start of the social marketing programme, 52% of the children were using a net which had been treated at least once. The ITNs were rather homogeneously distributed throughout the village at an average density of about 118 ITNs per thousand population. There was no evidence of a pattern in the distribution of parasitaemia and anaemia cases, but children living in areas of moderately high ITN coverage were about half as likely to have moderate/severe anaemia (OR 0.5, 95% CI: 0.2, 0.9) and had lower prevalence of splenomegaly, irrespective of their net use. No protective effects of coverage were found for prevalence of mild anaemia nor for parasitaemia. The use of untreated nets had neither coverage nor short distance effects. More efforts should be made to ensure high coverage in ITNs programmes to achieve maximum benefit

Temporal trends in mode, site and stage of presentation with the introduction of colorectal cancer screening: a decade of experience from the West of Scotland

background:  Population colorectal cancer screening programmes have been introduced to reduce cancer-specific mortality through the detection of early-stage disease. The present study aimed to examine the impact of screening introduction in the West of Scotland. methods:  Data on all patients with a diagnosis of colorectal cancer between January 2003 and December 2012 were extracted from a prospectively maintained regional audit database. Changes in mode, site and stage of presentation before, during and after screening introduction were examined. results:  In a population of 2.4 million, over a 10-year period, 14 487 incident cases of colorectal cancer were noted. Of these, 7827 (54%) were males and 7727 (53%) were socioeconomically deprived. In the postscreening era, 18% were diagnosed via the screening programme. There was a reduction in both emergency presentation (20% prescreening vs 13% postscreening, P0.001) and the proportion of rectal cancers (34% prescreening vs 31% pos-screening, P0.001) over the timeframe. Within non-metastatic disease, an increase in the proportion of stage I tumours at diagnosis was noted (17% prescreening vs 28% postscreening, P0.001). conclusions:  Within non-metastatic disease, a shift towards earlier stage at diagnosis has accompanied the introduction of a national screening programme. Such a change should lead to improved outcomes in patients with colorectal cancer

Changes in ponderal index and body mass index across childhood and their associations with fat mass and cardiovascular risk factors at age 15

Background: Little is known about whether associations between childhood adiposity and later adverse cardiovascular health outcomes are driven by tracking of overweight from childhood to adulthood and/or by vascular and metabolic changes from childhood overweight that persist into adulthood. Our objective is to characterise associations between trajectories of adiposity across childhood and a wide range of cardiovascular risk factors measured in adolescence, and explore the extent to which these are mediated by fat mass at age 15. Methods and Findings: Using data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, we estimated individual trajectories of ponderal index (PI) from 0-2 years and BMI from 2-10 years using random-effects linear spline models (N = 4601). We explored associations between PI/BMI trajectories and DXA-determined total-body fat-mass and cardiovascular risk factors at 15 years (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, fasting LDL-and HDL-cholesterol, triglycerides, C-reactive protein, glucose, insulin) with and without adjustment for confounders. Changes in PI/BMI during all periods of infancy and childhood were associated with greater DXA-determined fat-mass at age 15. BMI changes in childhood, but not PI changes from 0-2 years, were associated with most cardiovascular risk factors in adolescence; associations tended to be strongest for BMI changes in later childhood (ages 8.5-10), and were largely mediated by fat mass at age 15. Conclusion: Changes in PI/BMI from 0-10 years were associated with greater fat-mass at age 15. Greater increases in BMI from age 8.5-10 years are most strongly associated with cardiovascular risk factors at age 15, with much of these associations mediated by fat-mass at this age. We found little evidence supporting previous reports that rapid PI changes in infancy are associated with future cardiovascular risk. This study suggests that associations between early overweight and subsequent adverse cardiovascular health are largely due to overweight children tending to remain overweight

Neighbourhood, Route and Workplace-Related Environmental Characteristics Predict Adults' Mode of Travel to Work

Commuting provides opportunities for regular physical activity which can reduce the risk of chronic disease. Commuters' mode of travel may be shaped by their environment, but understanding of which specific environmental characteristics are most important and might form targets for intervention is limited. This study investigated associations between mode choice and a range of objectively assessed environmental characteristics.Participants in the Commuting and Health in Cambridge study reported where they lived and worked, their usual mode of travel to work and a variety of socio-demographic characteristics. Using geographic information system (GIS) software, 30 exposure variables were produced capturing characteristics of areas around participants' homes and workplaces and their shortest modelled routes to work. Associations between usual mode of travel to work and personal and environmental characteristics were investigated using multinomial logistic regression.Of the 1124 respondents, 50% reported cycling or walking as their usual mode of travel to work. In adjusted analyses, home-work distance was strongly associated with mode choice, particularly for walking. Lower odds of walking or cycling rather than driving were associated with a less frequent bus service (highest versus lowest tertile: walking OR 0.61 [95% CI 0.20–1.85]; cycling OR 0.43 [95% CI 0.23–0.83]), low street connectivity (OR 0.22, [0.07–0.67]; OR 0.48 [0.26–0.90]) and free car parking at work (OR 0.24 [0.10–0.59]; OR 0.55 [0.32–0.95]). Participants were less likely to cycle if they had access to fewer destinations (leisure facilities, shops and schools) close to work (OR 0.36 [0.21–0.62]) and a railway station further from home (OR 0.53 [0.30–0.93]). Covariates strongly predicted travel mode (pseudo r-squared 0.74).Potentially modifiable environmental characteristics, including workplace car parking, street connectivity and access to public transport, are associated with travel mode choice, and could be addressed as part of transport policy and infrastructural interventions to promote active commuting

Detectability of colorectal neoplasia with fluorine-18-2-fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose positron emission tomography and computed tomography (FDG-PET/CT)

The purpose of this study was to analyze the detectability of colorectal neoplasia with fluorine-18-2-fluoro-2-deoxy-d-glucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (FDG-PET/CT). Data for a total of 492 patients who had undergone both PET/CT and colonoscopy were analyzed. After the findings of PET/CT and colonoscopy were determined independently, the results were compared in each of the six colonic sites examined in all patients. The efficacy of PET/CT was determined using colonoscopic examination as the gold standard. In all, 270 colorectal lesions 5 mm or more in size, including 70 pathologically confirmed malignant lesions, were found in 172 patients by colonoscopy. The sensitivity and specificity of PET/CT for detecting any of the colorectal lesions were 36 and 98%, respectively. For detecting lesions 11 mm or larger, the sensitivity was increased to 85%, with the specificity remaining consistent (97%). Moreover, the sensitivity for tumors 21 mm or larger was 96% (48/50). Tumors with malignant or high-grade pathology were likely to be positive with PET/CT. A size of 10 mm or smaller [odds ratio (OR) 44.14, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 11.44-221.67] and flat morphology (OR 7.78, 95% CI 1.79-36.25) were significant factors that were associated with false-negative cases on PET/CT. The sensitivity of PET/CT for detecting colorectal lesions is acceptable, showing size- and pathology-dependence, suggesting, for the most part, that clinically relevant lesions are detectable with PET/CT. However, when considering PET/CT for screening purposes caution must be exercised because there are cases of false-negative results

Dynamical system analysis and forecasting of deformation produced by an earthquake fault

We present a method of constructing low-dimensional nonlinear models describing the main dynamical features of a discrete 2D cellular fault zone, with many degrees of freedom, embedded in a 3D elastic solid. A given fault system is characterized by a set of parameters that describe the dynamics, rheology, property disorder, and fault geometry. Depending on the location in the system parameter space we show that the coarse dynamics of the fault can be confined to an attractor whose dimension is significantly smaller than the space in which the dynamics takes place. Our strategy of system reduction is to search for a few coherent structures that dominate the dynamics and to capture the interaction between these coherent structures. The identification of the basic interacting structures is obtained by applying the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) to the surface deformations fields that accompany strike-slip faulting accumulated over equal time intervals. We use a feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN) architecture for the identification of the system dynamics projected onto the subspace (model space) spanned by the most energetic coherent structures. The ANN is trained using a standard back-propagation algorithm to predict (map) the values of the observed model state at a future time given the observed model state at the present time. This ANN provides an approximate, large scale, dynamical model for the fault.Comment: 30 pages, 12 figure

Faecal immunochemical tests (FIT) can help to rule out colorectal cancer in patients presenting in primary care with lower abdominal symptoms:a systematic review conducted to inform new NICE DG30 diagnostic guidance

__Background:__ This study has attempted to assess the effectiveness of quantitative faecal immunochemical tests (FIT) for triage of people presenting with lower abdominal symptoms, where a referral to secondary care for investigation of suspected colorectal cancer (CRC) is being considered, particularly when the 2-week criteria are not met. __Methods:__ We conducted a systematic review following published guidelines for systematic reviews of diagnostic tests. Twenty-one resources were searched up until March 2016. Summary estimates were calculated using a bivariate model or a random-effects logistic regression model. __Results:__ Nine studies are included in this review. One additional study, included in our systematic review, was provided as 'academic in confidence' and cannot be described herein. When FIT was based on a single faecal sample and a cut-off of 10 μg Hb/g faeces, sensitivity estimates indicated that a negative result using either the OC-Sensor or HM-JACKarc may be adequate to rule out nearly all CRC; the summary estimate of sensitivity for the OC-Sensor was 92.1%, based on four studies, and the only study of HM-JACKarc to assess the 10 μg Hb/g faeces cut-off reported a sensitivity of 100%. The corresponding specificity estimates were 85.8% (95% CI 78.3-91.0%) and 76.6%, respectively. When the diagnostic criterion was changed to include lower grades of neoplasia, i.e. the target condition included higher risk adenoma (HRA) as well as CRC, the rule-out performance of both FIT assays was reduced. __Conclusions:__ There is evidence to suggest that triage using FIT at a cut-off around 10 μg Hb/g faeces has the potential to correctly rule out CRC and avoid colonoscopy in 75-80% of symptomatic patients. Systematic review registration: PROSPERO 4201603772

Factors associated with completion of bowel cancer screening and the potential effects of simplifying the screening test algorithm

BACKGROUND: The primary colorectal cancer screening test in England is a guaiac faecal occult blood test (gFOBt). The NHS Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (BCSP) interprets tests on six samples on up to three test kits to determine a definitive positive or negative result. However, the test algorithm fails to achieve a definitive result for a significant number of participants because they do not comply with the programme requirements. This study identifies factors associated with failed compliance and modifications to the screening algorithm that will improve the clinical effectiveness of the screening programme. METHODS: The BCSP Southern Hub data for screening episodes started in 2006–2012 were analysed for participants aged 60–69 years. The variables included age, sex, level of deprivation, gFOBt results and clinical outcome. RESULTS: The data set included 1 409 335 screening episodes; 95.08% of participants had a definitively normal result on kit 1 (no positive spots). Among participants asked to complete a second or third gFOBt, 5.10% and 4.65%, respectively, failed to return a valid kit. Among participants referred for follow up, 13.80% did not comply. Older age was associated with compliance at repeat testing, but non-compliance at follow up. Increasing levels of deprivation were associated with non-compliance at repeat testing and follow up. Modelling a reduction in the threshold for immediate referral led to a small increase in completion of the screening pathway. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing the number of positive spots required on the first gFOBt kit for referral for follow-up and targeted measures to improve compliance with follow-up may improve completion of the screening pathway