Dissecting magnetar variability with Bayesian hierarchical models

Neutron stars are a prime laboratory for testing physical processes under conditions of strong gravity, high density, and extreme magnetic fields. Among the zoo of neutron star phenomena, magnetars stand out for their bursting behaviour, ranging from extremely bright, rare giant flares to numerous, less energetic recurrent bursts. The exact trigger and emission mechanisms for these bursts are not known; favoured models involve either a crust fracture and subsequent energy release into the magnetosphere, or explosive reconnection of magnetic field lines. In the absence of a predictive model, understanding the physical processes responsible for magnetar burst variability is difficult. Here, we develop an empirical model that decomposes magnetar bursts into a superposition of small spike-like features with a simple functional form, where the number of model components is itself part of the inference problem. The cascades of spikes that we model might be formed by avalanches of reconnection, or crust rupture aftershocks. Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling augmented with reversible jumps between models with different numbers of parameters, we characterise the posterior distributions of the model parameters and the number of components per burst. We relate these model parameters to physical quantities in the system, and show for the first time that the variability within a burst does not conform to predictions from ideas of self-organised criticality. We also examine how well the properties of the spikes fit the predictions of simplified cascade models for the different trigger mechanisms.Comment: accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal; code available at https://bitbucket.org/dhuppenkothen/magnetron, data products at http://figshare.com/articles/SGR_J1550_5418_magnetron_data/129242

Pseudorehearsal in value function approximation

Catastrophic forgetting is of special importance in reinforcement learning, as the data distribution is generally non-stationary over time. We study and compare several pseudorehearsal approaches for Q-learning with function approximation in a pole balancing task. We have found that pseudorehearsal seems to assist learning even in such very simple problems, given proper initialization of the rehearsal parameters

Population-based continuous optimization, probabilistic modelling and mean shift

Evolutionary algorithms perform optimization using a population of sample solution points. An interesting development has been to view population-based optimization as the process of evolving an explicit, probabilistic model of the search space. This paper investigates a formal basis for continuous, population-based optimization in terms of a stochastic gradient descent on the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the model probability density and the objective function, represented as an unknown density of assumed form. This leads to an update rule that is related and compared with previous theoretical work, a continuous version of the population-based incremental learning algorithm, and the generalized mean shift clustering framework. Experimental results are presented that demonstrate the dynamics of the new algorithm on a set of simple test problems

Adaptation and enslavement in endosymbiont-host associations

The evolutionary persistence of symbiotic associations is a puzzle. Adaptation should eliminate cooperative traits if it is possible to enjoy the advantages of cooperation without reciprocating - a facet of cooperation known in game theory as the Prisoner's Dilemma. Despite this barrier, symbioses are widespread, and may have been necessary for the evolution of complex life. The discovery of strategies such as tit-for-tat has been presented as a general solution to the problem of cooperation. However, this only holds for within-species cooperation, where a single strategy will come to dominate the population. In a symbiotic association each species may have a different strategy, and the theoretical analysis of the single species problem is no guide to the outcome. We present basic analysis of two-species cooperation and show that a species with a fast adaptation rate is enslaved by a slowly evolving one. Paradoxically, the rapidly evolving species becomes highly cooperative, whereas the slowly evolving one gives little in return. This helps understand the occurrence of endosymbioses where the host benefits, but the symbionts appear to gain little from the association.Comment: v2: Correction made to equations 5 & 6 v3: Revised version accepted in Phys. Rev. E; New figure adde

A stochastic approximation algorithm with multiplicative step size modification

An algorithm of searching a zero of an unknown function \vphi : \, \R \to \R is considered: $\, x_{t} = x_{t-1} - \gamma_{t-1} y_t$,\, $t=1,\ 2,\ldots$, where $y_t = \varphi(x_{t-1}) + \xi_t$ is the value of \vphi measured at $x_{t-1}$ and $\xi_t$ is the measurement error. The step sizes \gam_t > 0 are modified in the course of the algorithm according to the rule: \, \gamma_t = \min\{u\, \gamma_{t-1},\, \mstep\} if $y_{t-1} y_t > 0$, and $\gamma_t = d\, \gamma_{t-1}$, otherwise, where $0 < d < 1 0$. That is, at each iteration \gam_t is multiplied either by $u$ or by $d$, provided that the resulting value does not exceed the predetermined value \mstep. The function \vphi may have one or several zeros; the random values $\xi_t$ are independent and identically distributed, with zero mean and finite variance. Under some additional assumptions on \vphi, $\xi_t$, and \mstep, the conditions on $u$ and $d$ guaranteeing a.s. convergence of the sequence $\{ x_t \}$, as well as a.s. divergence, are determined. In particular, if $\P (\xi_1 > 0) = \P (\xi_1 < 0) = 1/2$ and $\P (\xi_1 = x) = 0$ for any $x \in \R$, one has convergence for $ud 1$. Due to the multiplicative updating rule for \gam_t, the sequence $\{ x_t \}$ converges rapidly: like a geometric progression (if convergence takes place), but the limit value may not coincide with, but instead, approximates one of the zeros of \vphi. By adjusting the parameters $u$ and $d$, one can reach arbitrarily high precision of the approximation; higher precision is obtained at the expense of lower convergence rate

COVID19: Current Challenges and Future Perspectives

This Special Issue focuses on recent global research on the current coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The disease is caused by a novel virus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) named the virus SARS-CoV-2, as it is genetically related to the coronavirus responsible for the SARS outbreak of 2003. While related, the two viruses are quite different in their behaviour. At the time of submission for publication (7 January 2022), COVID-19, named by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 11 February 2020, had caused more than 296.5 million cases and over 5.5 million deaths with over 2.6 million new cases in the past 24 h. The COVID-19 pandemic has greatly affected the capacity of health systems providing essential health care, but more than 9.195 billion vaccine doses have been administered as of 10 January 2021. There have been 22 papers published upon peer review acceptance in this Special Issue, including one editorial, twelve research papers, three review papers and seven other papers, including one perspective, two case reports, one brief report, two viewpoints and one commentary. They each contribute to a much better understanding of COVID-19

COVID-19: Current Challenges and Future Perspectives.

[Extract] This article belongs to the Special Issue COVID-19: Current Challenges and Future Perspectives. At the time of submission for publication (7 January 2022), COVID-19, named by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 11 February 2020, had caused more than 296.5 million cases and over 5.5 million deaths with over 2.6 million new cases in the past 24 h [2]. The COVID-19 pandemic has greatly affected the capacity of health systems providing essential health care [1], but more than 9.195 billion vaccine doses have been administered as of 10 January 2021 [2]

'Making a Difference': Volunteer Tourism and Development,

Abstract: In recent decades there has been a boom in international volunteer tourism, mainly in the form of the growth of gap-year companies offering placements, linked to conservation and community well-being goals. This paper makes two points: firstly, it argues that the growth of volunteer tourism is in part a product of the politics of the current period – the decline of grand narratives and the growth of ‘life political’ alternative forms of agency. Hence volunteer tourism, motivated by the impulse to ‘make a difference’, tells us something about the way in which development issues are being conceived of by idealistic young people who comprise the majority of volunteer tourists. Secondly, the paper takes issue with the view that today’s volunteer tourists are part of a tradition of colonialism and neo-colonialism that projects western conceptions of modernization onto the Third World societies to the detriment of the latter. Rather, it is argued that the politics behind volunteer tourism is better characterized as a rejection of modernization as development in favour of a post-development influenced approach. Keywords: volunteer tourism; life politics; gap-year; ethical consumption; tourism and development

Rabies: an evidence-based approach to management

Human rabies in South Africa is largely due to infection with the classical rabies virus (genotype 1), with the yellow mongoose the commonest vector except in KwaZulu-Natal, Eastern Cape, Mpumalanga and now Limpopo provinces where the dog is predominantly responsible for most bites. Rabies is always fatal in humans but can be prevented by timeous administration of post exposure prophylaxis( PEP). This article discusses an evidence-based approach to rabies management in South Africa. South African Family Practice Vol. 49 (7) 2007: pp. 35-4