Resolving the Anglo-German industrial productivity puzzle, 1895-1935 : a response to Professor Ritschl

This paper offers a critical appraisal of the claim of Ritschl (2008) to have found a “possible resolution” to what he calls the “Anglo-German industrial productivity puzzle”. To understand the origins of this term, it is necessary to describe some recent developments in comparisons of industrial labour productivity between Britain and Germany. The Anglo-German industrial productivity puzzle really arose as the result of a new industrial production index produced by Ritschl (2004), which differed very substantially from the widely used index of Hoffmann (1965). Broadberry and Burhop (2007) pointed out that if the Ritschl (2004) index is combined with an index of German employment from Hoffmann (1965) and time series of UK output and employment from Feinstein (1972), it implies an implausibly high German labour productivity lead over Britain in 1907, when projected back from a widely accepted Germany/UK labour productivity benchmark for 1935/36

(Re)Construction Site of German Historical National Accounts:Machine Building

The figure most commonly used as benchmark for the output of machinery before WW I is based on an estimate by the Association of German Machinery Producers (VDMA). It estimated that all German firms together had sold machines worth 2,800 million Marks in 1913. Using a recently detected detailed report, filed in the Federal Archives in Berlin-Lichterfelde, on the internal statistics of VDMA results in alternative figures for the benchmark year 1913. Besides the original figure of VDMA two different new benchmark figures are presented here, namely 2,700 m. M (VDMA modified) and 2,600 m. M (according to Rech). The two new benchmark figures for 1913, in combination with a new production index, yield two time series for German machinery output between 1909 and 1918

(Re)Construction Site of German Historical National Accounts:German Industrial Employment 1925, 1933, 1936 and 1939

The industrial census of 1936 did not include all industrial firms; for certain industrial groups data of small firms were not recorded. This article describes the estimation of employment (4 million) which has to be added to the recorded number of 8 million employees. The estimated figure is confronted with the figures of the workplace censuses of 1925, 1933 and 1939 on the one hand and with the compilation by Hoffmann on the other hand. Whereas the estimate is in line with the workplace censuses it deviates significantly from Hoffmann´s numbers. Scrutinising them reveals serious distortions in their level, trend and yearly fluctuations. By implication, this objection does not only hold for the employment figures but for time series on production and levels of labour productivity as well. Consequently, one should keep away from Hoffmann´s figures when discussing any aspect of economic failure of the Weimar Republic or economic recovery after Hitler came to power

Der Industriezensus von 1936 als Grundlage einer neuen volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnung für Deutschland

Das 1965 von Walther G. Hoffmann publizierte Werk zum „Wachstum der deutschen Wirtschaft seit der Mitte des 19. Jahrhunderts“ gilt noch stets als Standardwerk zur volkswirtschaftlichen Ge-samtrechnung. Ökonomen, Wirtschafts- und Sozialhistoriker sowie politisch orientierte Ge-schichtswissenschaftler verwenden die bis 1850 zurückreichenden Zeitreihen seit Jahrzehnten un-kritisch für internationale Vergleiche und als Ausgangsmaterial. Für das Basisjahr 1913 ermittelte Hoffmann das Niveau des Nettosozialprodukts oder Volksein-kommens und verknüpfte mit dieser Schätzung Mengenindizes und Wertreihen für die Jahre davor und danach. In unserer Kritik stellen wir heraus, dass dieses Niveau von 1913 deutlich zu niedrig angesetzt ist. Für einen Alternativansatz schlagen wir 1936 als Basisjahr vor. Für dieses Jahr hatte das Statistische Reichsamt zum ersten Mal für Deutschland umfangreiche Daten zu weit über 200 Industriezweigen nach dem angelsächsischen Konzept des Brutto- und Nettoproduktionswertes er-hoben. Wegen der Kriegsvorbereitung wurden diese Daten weitgehend geheim gehalten und 1939 lediglich teilweise veröffentlicht, wobei strategische Bereiche verschleiert wurden. Diese verzerrten veröffentlichen Daten benutzte Hoffmann als konstante Gewichte zur Verknüpfung seiner Volu-menindizes über die Industrieproduktion. Wir verwerten die im Bundesarchiv lagernden Originaldaten, um entsprechend den Quellen sektoral differenzierte Netto- und Bruttoproduktionswerte zu ermitteln. Zugleich werden alle Einsatzfakto-ren erfasst, mit denen für das Jahr 1936 eine umfassende Input-Output-Tabelle konstruiert werden soll. Damit würden die ursprünglichen Pläne des Statistischen Reichsamts verwirklicht werden. Damals waren sie daran gescheitert, dass die Zensusdaten vorrangig der statistischen Vorbereitung der Kriegswirtschaft dienen sollten und in anderer Form ausschließlich als Mengendiagramme er-stellt worden waren. Wir präsentieren erste Teile dieser Input-Output-Tabelle.The book published by Walther G. Hoffmann in 1965 is still regarded as the standard work on Germany's historical national accounts from 1850 onwards. Economists, economic and social histo-rians as well as political historians have uncritically used its time-series as starting point and basic material for international comparisons and other purposes. For the benchmark year of 1913, Hoffmann estimated the level of net national product or national income and tied this to his volume indices for the time before and after that year. As this level is significantly too low in our view we propose 1936 as an alternative benchmark year. In that year, the Statistical Office of the German Empire for the first time gathered figures in accordance with the Anglo-Saxon concept of gross and net production values for more than 200 industrial branches. As these data served the purpose of war preparation they were kept secret to a large extent. So in 1939 only parts were published with strategic sectors being covered up. We are currently exploiting the original data available in the Federal Archives of Berlin to compile detailed gross and net production values broken down for industrial sectors. At the same time we assemble all inputs in order to construct an input-output-table for 1936. Thereby we take up the original plans of the Imperial Statistical Office, which then had failed. To serve the main purpose of preparing the war economy the data of the industrial census of 1936 had been drawn up as material input-output balances or flow diagrams. We present first results of our input-output-table

El Sector Terciario en España antes de 1936: Una nota de escepticismo sobre las estimaciones al uso

Publicad

Profund, präzise, pünktlich: 80 Jahre Wochenbericht spiegeln die deutsche Wirtschaftsgeschichte

Publication history

Der Industriezensus von 1936 als Grundlage einer neuen volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnung für Deutschland

The book published by Walther G. Hoffmann in 1965 is still regarded as the standard work on Germany's historical national accounts from 1850 onwards. Economists, economic and social histo-rians as well as political historians have uncritically used its time-series as starting point and basic material for international comparisons and other purposes. For the benchmark year of 1913, Hoffmann estimated the level of net national product or national income and tied this to his volume indices for the time before and after that year. As this level is significantly too low in our view we propose 1936 as an alternative benchmark year. In that year, the Statistical Office of the German Empire for the first time gathered figures in accordance with the Anglo-Saxon concept of gross and net production values for more than 200 industrial branches. As these data served the purpose of war preparation they were kept secret to a large extent. So in 1939 only parts were published with strategic sectors being covered up. We are currently exploiting the original data available in the Federal Archives of Berlin to compile detailed gross and net production values broken down for industrial sectors. At the same time we assemble all inputs in order to construct an input-output-table for 1936. Thereby we take up the original plans of the Imperial Statistical Office, which then had failed. To serve the main purpose of preparing the war economy the data of the industrial census of 1936 had been drawn up as material input-output balances or flow diagrams. We present first results of our input-output-table.

International comparisons of real product, 1820-1990 : an alternative data set

Research funding was provided by the Spanish Ministry of Education Grant PB95-0294 and Fundación Argentaria