Mudança da tendência da mortalidade por asma em crianças e adolescentes no Rio Grande do Sul: 1970-1998 Change in asthma mortality trends in children and adolescents in Rio Grande do Sul: 1970-1998

Introdução: A mortalidade por asma aumentou no Rio Grande do Sul no período 1970-92 em crianças e adultos jovens. Este trabalho visou avaliar a tendência do fenômeno no mesmo grupo etário, agora incluindo o período de 1970-98. Métodos: Foram revisados os 157 certificados de óbitos ocorridos entre 1970 e 1998 em pessoas de cinco a 19 anos de idade nos quais asma foi considerada a causa básica de morte. As tendências foram testadas usando os modelos log-linear, logístico (S curve) e quadrático. Resultados: A mortalidade por asma variou entre 0,04 e 0,399/100.000. Entre os modelos testados, o logístico mostrou os melhores valores de acurácia para a série temporal analisada: r² = 0,59, percentual de erro médio absoluto (MAPE) = 23,48, desvio médio absoluto (MAD) = 0,035 e desvio mínimo quadrático = 0,0021. Esses resultados significam que possivelmente um platô foi atingido. O modelo quadrático mostrou também bons valores de acurácia, significando que uma possibilidade alternativa seja a de que um decréscimo nos coeficientes esteja iniciando. Neste modelo, o valor máximo calculado foi no 25º ano (1994). Conclusões: A mortalidade por asma no Rio Grande do Sul está-se estabilizando, após um período de importante aumento. É possível, inclusive, que uma tendência ao decréscimo esteja iniciando.<br>Introduction: During the period from 1970 to 1992, mortality from asthma in children and young adults increased in Rio Grande do Sul. The present study aimed at assessing this phenomenon in patients of the same age group, now extending the time period to 1998. Methods: The death certificates of 157 patients aged between 5 and 19 years in which asthma was reported to be the cause of death during 1970-80 were reviewed. Testing for trends was conducted using the log-linear, S-curve, and quadratic models. Results: Asthma mortality rate ranged from 0.04 to 0.399/100,000. Among the tested models, S curve trend model showed the best accuracy for the adjusted time series: r²=0.59; mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) = 23.48; mean absolute deviation (MAD) = 0.035; mean square deviation (MSD) = 0.0021. These results suggest that a plateau has probably been reached. The quadratic model also showed good accuracy values suggesting that a decrease in the coefficients probably started to occur. In this model, the estimated maximal point value was found in the 25th year (1994). Conclusions: Stabilization of asthma death rates is starting to occur in Rio Grande do Sul and it is likely that a decrease will take place

Asthma programmes in diverse regions of the world: challenges, successes and lessons learnt

International surveys have demonstrated that asthma is still underdiagnosed and undertreated in many parts of the world. Despite improvements in the standard of asthma care delivered in many areas, as evidenced by improved global asthma mortality data, much information on projects and programmes undertaken in resource-limited regions of the world is not in the public domain. The aim of this report is to review projects and programmes in diverse regions around the world so that health care providers, planners and consumers may draw on the successes, failures and lessons learnt. Such real world experiences may contribute to achieving Global Initiative for Asthma goals of asthma control. Asthma projects and programmes in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, Philippines, Russia, South Africa and Turkey were discussed by a group of experts in asthma care, the Advancing Asthma Care Network, from their respective countries, over a course of three satellite meetings in 2010. Collective analyses consistently identified low rates of dissemination and implementation of national and international treatment guidelines, low levels of continuing medical education and training of primary health care professionals and access and distribution of inhaled corticosteroids to be major barriers that are critical to the overall success of a national asthma management programme. In the less developed asthma programmes, under-recognition and undertreatment further limited the success of the programmes. Evidence from well-established national asthma management programmes suggests that establishment of a successful programme entails a logical progression through specific developmental stages, starting with political/stakeholder endorsement and commitment, followed by epidemiological evaluation, evaluation of disease burden, evaluation of access to care and best therapy, and finally optimisation and maintenance therapy for individual patients