What do I make of your Latinorum? Sensitivity auditing of mathematical modelling

In their book Uncertainty and Quality of Science for Policy (1990), Funtowicz and Ravetz argued the need to extend traditional methods and techniques of quality assurance in policy-related science. Since then, these ideas have been operationalized further and applied. Particularly relevant have been the recourse to extended peer review, to be intended as internal, across disciplines, as well as external, between practitioners and stakeholders, and the use of a new approach to qualify quantities: NUSAP (Numeral, Unit, Spread, Assessment, Pedigree). Here we describe how sensitivity analysis, mandated by existing guidelines as a good practice to use in conjunction to mathematical modelling, needs to be transformed and adapted to ensure quality in the treatment of uncertainty of science for policy. We thus provide seven rules to extend the use of sensitivity analysis (or how to apportion uncertainty in model based inference among input factors) in a process of sensitivity auditing of models used in a policy context. Each rule will be illustrated by examples.Comment: Prepared for Foresight and Innovation Policy, Special Issue on Plausibility October 2012, 21 page

What can history teach us about the prospects of a European Research Area?

This report is the result of work carried out by the Centre for the Study of the Sciences and the Humanities at the University of Bergen, Norway. The work was commissioned by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre at Ispra (Italy), and as such this report is the final deliverable of our Service Contract 257218 with the EC-JRC. The history of science has a lot to offer to contemporary debates on research policy and on science in society. This is especially true when the history of science is not seen as independent from political, economic and cultural history. This calls for a historical sensitivity also for challenges, problems, conflicts and crises; and such a sensitivity appears to be timely in present-day Europe, where the word “crisis” is taking a predominant place on public and political scenes. Having argued that the idea that scientific knowledge should determine or prescribe the course of action is in itself part of the 17th century solutions that contemporary society has inherited as part of the problem, the report suggests possible lines of action and reflection for the European Research Area focusing on European values including diversity and tolerance, universalism, democracy and public knowledge. The report also discusses Grand Challenges and Deep Innovation, reassessing the present function of the ERA, and what policy indicators might be of use.JRC.G.3-Econometrics and applied statistic

The role of research in higher education: implications and challenges for an active future contribution to human and social development

Mankind is on the brink of a tragic era, in which the anarchic forces of the market and the incessant pressures upon natural resources on the verge of exhaustion will push sovereign states to increasingly dangerous rivalries. What will the role of research in higher education be, in response to the challenge of an active future contribution to human and social development? A good balance must be reached in the basic functions of research in order to avoid governance risks. While focusing only on the transformative function of research may pose dangers to the human dimension and development, unilateral concentration on responsible development aspects may generate reactive approaches and delay economic benefits. Disregarding the inclusiveness function may lead to slower development and even isolationism, and focusing on short-term issues is not good for long-term goals and future generations. We must reinforce research networks between ‘Southern’ and ‘Northern’, rich and poor, and developed and developing countries and institutions in order to bridge the gap between knowledge consumers and producers. This paper reviews aspects such as development, globalization and the inequality of nations; constraints and choices of the orthodox views of research; rethinking research and higher education to contribute to a better future; and knowledge integration for effective action.Peer Reviewe

Is small beautiful? A multicriteria assessment of small-scale energy technology applications in local governments

In its 2003 White Paper the UK government set ambitious renewable energy targets. Local governments and households have an increasing role in the overall energy system as consumers, suppliers of smaller-scale applications and citizens discussing energy projects. In this paper, we consider if small-scale or large-scale approaches to renewable energy provision can achieve energy targets in the most socially, economically and environmentally (SEE) effective way. We take a local case study of renewable energy provision in the Metropolitan Borough of Kirklees in Yorkshire, UK, and apply a multi-criteria decision analysis methodology to compare the small-scale schemes implemented in Kirklees with large-scale alternatives. The results indicate that small-scale schemes are the most SEE effective, despite large-scale schemes being more financially viable. The selection of the criteria on which the alternatives are assessed and the assigned weights for each criterion are of crucial importance. It is thus very important to include the relevant stakeholders to elicit this information

Environmentalism, performance and applications: uncertainties and emancipations

This introductory article for a themed edition on environmentalism provides a particular context for those articles that follow, each of which engages with different aspects of environmentalism and performance in community-related settings. Responding to the proposition that there is a lacuna in the field of applied drama and environmentalism (Bottoms, 2010), we suggest that the more significant lack is that of ecocriticism. As the articles in this journal testify, there are many examples of applied theatre practice; what is required is sustained and rigorous critical engagement. It is to the gap of ecocriticism that we address this issue, signalling what we hope is the emergence of a critical field. One response to the multiple challenges of climate change is to more transparently locate the human animal within the environment, as one agent amongst many. Here, we seek to transparently locate the critic, intertwining the personal – ourselves, human actants – with global environmental concerns. This tactic mirrors much contemporary writing on climate change and its education, privileging personal engagement – a shift we interrogate as much as we perform. The key trope we anchor is that of uncertainty: the uncertainties that accompany stepping into a new research environment; the uncertainties arising from multiple relations (human and non-human); the uncertainties of scientific fact; the uncertainties of forecasting the future; and the uncertainties of outcomes – including those of performance practices. Having analysed a particular turn in environmental education (towards social learning) and the failure to successfully combine ‘art and reality’ in recent UK mainstream theatre events, such uncertainties lead to our suggestion for an ‘emancipated’ environmentalism. In support of this proposal, we offer up a reflection on a key weekend of performance practice that brought us to attend to the small – but not insignificant – and to consider first hand the complex relationships between environmental ‘grand narratives’ and personal experiential encounters. Locating ourselves within the field and mapping out some of the many conceptual challenges attached to it serves to introduce the territories which the following journal articles expand upon

Adaptive integration of research and policy for sustainable development (AIRP-SD) - prospect for the European research agenda : milestone one

The main objective of AIRP-SD was to address the urgent need to stimulate innovation in Research, Technological development and Demonstration (RTD) processes in order to enhance the prospects of RTD contributing positively to processes and strategies leading to radical improvements in the sustainability of production-consumption systems. This Milestone One Report was the first of three status reports, summarising the interim findings of the first three work packages since the start of the project in January 2002