Productive and reproductive performance of local cows under farmer’s management in central Tigray, Ethiopia

The study was conducted on 408 indigenous cows maintained under farmer’s management in eight districts of central Tigray, Ethiopia. A total of 208 small-scale dairy farm owners were randomly selected and interviewed with structured questionnaire to obtain information on the productive and reproductive performance of indigenous cows. The results of the study showed that the mean age at first calving (AFC) was 43.3 ±2.7 months, number of services per conception (NSC) was 2.7±0.5, days open (DO) was 201.47±61.21 days, calving interval (CI) was 468.33±71.42 days, lactation length (LL) was 206.17±32.33 days, lactation milk yield (LMY) was 414.65±53.69 litres for indigenous cows. The estimated value for productive and reproductive traits had higher than normal range in indigenous cows. This calls for a planned technical and institutional intervention for improved support services for appropriate breeding programs, improved cows and adequate veterinary health services. Key words: Productive and Reproductive Performance, Local Cows

BLOCK PROCEDURE WITH IMPLICIT SIXTH ORDER LINEAR MULTISTEP METHOD USING LEGENDRE POLYNOMIALS FOR SOLVING STIFF INITIAL VALUE PROBLEMS

In this paper, a discrete implicit linear multistep method in block form of uniform step size for the solution of first-order ordinary differential equations is presented using the power series as a basis function. To improve the accuracy of the method, a perturbation term is added to the approximated solution. The method is based on collocation of the differential equation and interpolation of the approximate solution using power series at the grid points. The procedure yields four linear multistep schemes which are combined as simultaneous numerical integrators to form block method. The method is found to be consistent and zero-stable, and hence convergent. The accuracy of the method is tested with some standard stiff first order initial value problems. The results are compared with the two point implicit block backward difference formula and two point implicit block extended backward difference formula. All numerical examples show that our proposed method has a better accuracy than the existing literature

Risk factors for brucellosis and knowledge-attitude practice among pastoralists in Afar and Somali regions of Ethiopia

BACKGROUND: Brucellosis is a neglected bacterial zoonotic disease with substantial economic impact on households. Pastoral communities are a potential risk group due to their way of life being closely interlinked with their large livestock herds. METHODOLOGY: A semi-structured questionnaire survey was conducted in households in the pastoral Afar and Somali (SRS) regions. All households had people and animals serologically tested for brucellosis. Questions were related to husbandry, consumption habits, and knowledge-attitude-practice towards the disease and zoonoses. Descriptive statistics and logistic analysis were performed to assess potential risk factors for having households with positive humans and/or animals. RESULT: 647 households were included in the survey. Herd brucellosis prevalence was 40.3 % (15.9-86.3 % in Afar; 4-72.2 % in SRS). Over half (56.3 %) of the households in Afar and 41.8 % in SRS had at least one human reactor. Nearly a quarter of the households (22.8 %), recalled abortions in goats in the last 12 months, whereas 52.5 % and 50.3 % recalled stillborn in all species and membrane retentions respectively. All respondents drank raw milk and discarded animal afterbirths in the direct surroundings with minimal protection. Risk factors for animal reactors were goat herd size, and goat abortion. There was no identified risk factor for having human reactors in households. None of the households knew about brucellosis. CONCLUSION: Although being endemic in Afar and SRS, Brucellosis is not known by the pastoralists. Brucellosis control programs will have to be tailored to the pastoral context, accounting for their mobility, large, multi-species herds and habits

Integrated human-animal sero-surveillance of Brucellosis in the pastoral Afar and Somali regions of Ethiopia

BACKGROUND: Brucellosis is widespread in Ethiopia with variable reported prevalence depending on the geographical area, husbandry practices and animal species. However, there is limited information on the disease prevalence amongst pastoral communities, whose life is intricately linked with their livestock. METHODOLOGY: We conducted an integrated human-animal brucellosis sero-surveillance study in two adjacent pastoral regions, Afar and Somali region (SRS). This cross-sectional study included 13 woredas (districts) and 650 households. Blood samples were collected from people and livestock species (cattle, camel, goats and sheep). Sera were analyzed with C-ELISA for camels and shoats (sheep and goats), with I-ELISA for cattle and IgG ELISA for humans. Descriptive and inferential statistics analyses were performed. RESULTS: A total of 5469 sera were tested by ELISA. Prevalence of livestock was 9.0% in Afar and 8.6% in SRS (ranging from 0.6 to 20.2% at woreda level). In humans, prevalence was 48.3% in Afar and 34.9% in SRS (ranging from 0.0 to 74.5% at woreda level). 68.4% of all households in Afar and 57.5% of households in SRS had at least one animal reactor. Overall, 4.1% of animals had a history of abortion. The proportion of animals with abortion history was higher in seropositive animals than in seronegative animals. Risk factor analysis showed that female animals were significantly at higher risk of being reactors (p = 0.013). Among the species, cattle had the least risk of being reactors (p = 0.014). In humans, there was a clear regional association of disease prevalence (p = 0.002). The older the people, the highest the odds of being seropositive. CONCLUSION: Brucellosis is widespread in humans and animals in pastoral communities of Afar and SRS with the existence of geographical hotspots. No clear association was seen between human and particular livestock species prevalence, hence there was no indication as whether B. abortus or B. melitensis are circulating in these areas, which warrants further molecular research prior to embarking on a national control programs. Such programs will need to be tailored to the pastoral context

Generating demand and community support for sexual and reproductive health services for young people: A review of the Literature and Programs

BACKGROUND: This review investigates the effectiveness of interventions aimed at generating demand for and use of sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services by young people; and interventions aimed at generating wider community support for their use. METHODS: Reports and publications were found in the peer-reviewed and grey literature through academic search engines; web searches; the bibliographies of known conference proceedings and papers; and consultation with experts. The studies were reviewed against a set of inclusion criteria and those that met these were explored in more depth. RESULTS: The evidence-base for interventions aimed at both generating demand and community support for SRH services for young people was found under-developed and many available studies do not provide strong evidence. However, the potential of several methods to increase youth uptake has been demonstrated, this includes the linking of school education programs with youth friendly services, life skills approaches and social marketing and franchising. There is also evidence that the involvement of key community gatekeepers such as parents and religious leaders is vital to generating wider community support. In general a combined multi-component approach seems most promising with several success stories to build on. CONCLUSIONS: Many areas for further research have been highlighted and there is a great need for more rigorous evaluation of programmes in this area. In particular, further evaluation of individual components within a multi-component approach is needed to elucidate the most effective interventions

Global, regional, and national burden of respiratory tract cancers and associated risk factors from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Prevention, control, and treatment of respiratory tract cancers are important steps towards achieving target 3.4 of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)—a one-third reduction in premature mortality due to non-communicable diseases by 2030. We aimed to provide global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer and their attributable risks from 1990 to 2019. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 methodology, we evaluated the incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of respiratory tract cancers (ie, tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer). Deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer attributable to each risk factor were estimated on the basis of risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level input from 204 countries and territories, stratified by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Trends were estimated from 1990 to 2019, with an emphasis on the 2010-19 period. Findings Globally, there were 2·26 million (95% uncertainty interval 2·07 to 2·45) new cases of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer, and 2·04 million (1·88 to 2·19) deaths and 45·9 million (42·3 to 49·3) DALYs due to tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer in 2019. There were 209 000 (194 000 to 225 000) new cases of larynx cancer, and 123 000 (115 000 to 133 000) deaths and 3·26 million (3·03 to 3·51) DALYs due to larynx cancer globally in 2019. From 2010 to 2019, the number of new tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer cases increased by 23·3% (12·9 to 33·6) globally and the number of larynx cancer cases increased by 24·7% (16·0 to 34·1) globally. Global age-standardised incidence rates of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer decreased by 7·4% (−16·8 to 1·6) and age-standardised incidence rates of larynx cancer decreased by 3 ·0% (−10·5 to 5·0) in males over the past decade; however, during the same period, age-standardised incidence rates in females increased by 0·9% (−8·2 to 10·2) for tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and decreased by 0·5% (−8·4 to 8·1) for larynx cancer. Furthermore, although age-standardised incidence and death rates declined in both sexes combined from 2010 to 2019 at the global level for tracheal, bronchus, lung and larynx cancers, some locations had rising rates, particularly those on the lower end of the SDI range. Smoking contributed to an estimated 64·2% (61·9–66·4) of all deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and 63·4% (56·3–69·3) of all deaths from larynx cancer in 2019. For males and for both sexes combined, smoking was the leading specific risk factor for age-standardised deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer per 100 000 in all SDI quintiles and GBD regions in 2019. However, among females, household air pollution from solid fuels was the leading specific risk factor in the low SDI quintile and in three GBD regions (central, eastern, and western sub-Saharan Africa) in 2019. Interpretation The numbers of incident cases and deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer increased globally during the past decade. Even more concerning, age-standardised incidence and death rates due to tracheal, bronchus, lung cancer and larynx cancer increased in some populations—namely, in the lower SDI quintiles and among females. Preventive measures such as smoking control interventions, air quality management programmes focused on major air pollution sources, and widespread access to clean energy should be prioritised in these settings

Mapping inequalities in exclusive breastfeeding in low- and middle-income countries, 2000–2018

Abstract: Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF)—giving infants only breast-milk for the first 6 months of life—is a component of optimal breastfeeding practices effective in preventing child morbidity and mortality. EBF practices are known to vary by population and comparable subnational estimates of prevalence and progress across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are required for planning policy and interventions. Here we present a geospatial analysis of EBF prevalence estimates from 2000 to 2018 across 94 LMICs mapped to policy-relevant administrative units (for example, districts), quantify subnational inequalities and their changes over time, and estimate probabilities of meeting the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) of ≥70% EBF prevalence by 2030. While six LMICs are projected to meet the WHO GNT of ≥70% EBF prevalence at a national scale, only three are predicted to meet the target in all their district-level units by 2030

Anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2018

Anemia is a globally widespread condition in women and is associated with reduced economic productivity and increased mortality worldwide. Here we map annual 2000–2018 geospatial estimates of anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age (15–49 years) across 82 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), stratify anemia by severity and aggregate results to policy-relevant administrative and national levels. Additionally, we provide subnational disparity analyses to provide a comprehensive overview of anemia prevalence inequalities within these countries and predict progress toward the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) to reduce anemia by half by 2030. Our results demonstrate widespread moderate improvements in overall anemia prevalence but identify only three LMICs with a high probability of achieving the WHO GNT by 2030 at a national scale, and no LMIC is expected to achieve the target in all their subnational administrative units. Our maps show where large within-country disparities occur, as well as areas likely to fall short of the WHO GNT, offering precision public health tools so that adequate resource allocation and subsequent interventions can be targeted to the most vulnerable populations

Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–18 : a modelling study

Background: High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000–18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit. Findings: The estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2 ·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1–3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4–1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7–0·9) in Mauritania to 676· 5 (513· 6–888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated rates were accordingly higher. Among second-level administrative units, Guijá District, Gaza Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV incidence (4661·7 [2544·8–8120·3]) cases per 100000 people in 2018 and Inhassunge District, Zambezia Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV mortality rate (1163·0 [679·0–1866·8]) deaths per 100 000 people. Further, the rate of reduction in HIV incidence and mortality from 2000 to 2018, as well as the ratio of new infections to the number of people living with HIV was highly variable. Although most second-level administrative units had declines in the number of new cases (3316 [81· 1%] of 4087 units) and number of deaths (3325 [81·4%]), nearly all appeared well short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths between 2010 and 2020. Interpretation: Our estimates suggest that most second-level administrative units in sub-Saharan Africa are falling short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths by 2020, which is further compounded by substantial within-country variability. These estimates will help decision makers and programme implementers expand access to ART and better target health resources to higher burden subnational areas

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of chewing tobacco use in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019 : a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Interpretation Chewing tobacco remains a substantial public health problem in several regions of the world, and predominantly in south Asia. We found little change in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use between 1990 and 2019, and that control efforts have had much larger effects on the prevalence of smoking tobacco use than on chewing tobacco use in some countries. Mitigating the health effects of chewing tobacco requires stronger regulations and policies that specifically target use of chewing tobacco, especially in countries with high prevalence. Findings In 2019, 273 center dot 9 million (95% uncertainty interval 258 center dot 5 to 290 center dot 9) people aged 15 years and older used chewing tobacco, and the global age-standardised prevalence of chewing tobacco use was 4 center dot 72% (4 center dot 46 to 5 center dot 01). 228 center dot 2 million (213 center dot 6 to 244 center dot 7; 83 center dot 29% [82 center dot 15 to 84 center dot 42]) chewing tobacco users lived in the south Asia region. Prevalence among young people aged 15-19 years was over 10% in seven locations in 2019. Although global agestandardised prevalence of smoking tobacco use decreased significantly between 1990 and 2019 (annualised rate of change: -1 center dot 21% [-1 center dot 26 to -1 center dot 16]), similar progress was not observed for chewing tobacco (0 center dot 46% [0 center dot 13 to 0 center dot 79]). Among the 12 highest prevalence countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Madagascar, Marshall Islands, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Sri Lanka, and Yemen), only Yemen had a significant decrease in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use, which was among males between 1990 and 2019 (-0 center dot 94% [-1 center dot 72 to -0 center dot 14]), compared with nine of 12 countries that had significant decreases in the prevalence of smoking tobacco. Among females, none of these 12 countries had significant decreases in prevalence of chewing tobacco use, whereas seven of 12 countries had a significant decrease in the prevalence of tobacco smoking use for the period. Summary Background Chewing tobacco and other types of smokeless tobacco use have had less attention from the global health community than smoked tobacco use. However, the practice is popular in many parts of the world and has been linked to several adverse health outcomes. Understanding trends in prevalence with age, over time, and by location and sex is important for policy setting and in relation to monitoring and assessing commitment to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. Methods We estimated prevalence of chewing tobacco use as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 using a modelling strategy that used information on multiple types of smokeless tobacco products. We generated a time series of prevalence of chewing tobacco use among individuals aged 15 years and older from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories, including age-sex specific estimates. We also compared these trends to those of smoked tobacco over the same time period. Findings In 2019, 273 & middot;9 million (95% uncertainty interval 258 & middot;5 to 290 & middot;9) people aged 15 years and older used chewing tobacco, and the global age-standardised prevalence of chewing tobacco use was 4 & middot;72% (4 & middot;46 to 5 & middot;01). 228 & middot;2 million (213 & middot;6 to 244 & middot;7; 83 & middot;29% [82 & middot;15 to 84 & middot;42]) chewing tobacco users lived in the south Asia region. Prevalence among young people aged 15-19 years was over 10% in seven locations in 2019. Although global age standardised prevalence of smoking tobacco use decreased significantly between 1990 and 2019 (annualised rate of change: -1 & middot;21% [-1 & middot;26 to -1 & middot;16]), similar progress was not observed for chewing tobacco (0 & middot;46% [0 & middot;13 to 0 & middot;79]). Among the 12 highest prevalence countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Madagascar, Marshall Islands, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Sri Lanka, and Yemen), only Yemen had a significant decrease in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use, which was among males between 1990 and 2019 (-0 & middot;94% [-1 & middot;72 to -0 & middot;14]), compared with nine of 12 countries that had significant decreases in the prevalence of smoking tobacco. Among females, none of these 12 countries had significant decreases in prevalence of chewing tobacco use, whereas seven of 12 countries had a significant decrease in the prevalence of tobacco smoking use for the period. Interpretation Chewing tobacco remains a substantial public health problem in several regions of the world, and predominantly in south Asia. We found little change in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use between 1990 and 2019, and that control efforts have had much larger effects on the prevalence of smoking tobacco use than on chewing tobacco use in some countries. Mitigating the health effects of chewing tobacco requires stronger regulations and policies that specifically target use of chewing tobacco, especially in countries with high prevalence. Copyright (c) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe