Seeking for the rational basis of the median model: the optimal combination of multi-model ensemble results

International audienceIn this paper we present an approach for the statistical analysis of multi-model ensemble results. The models considered here are operational long-range transport and dispersion models, also used for the real-time simulation of pollutant dispersion or the accidental release of radioactive nuclides. We first introduce the theoretical basis (with its roots sinking into the Bayes theorem) and then apply this approach to the analysis of model results obtained during the ETEX-1 exercise. We recover some interesting results, supporting the heuristic approach called "median model", originally introduced in Galmarini et al. (2004a, b). This approach also provides a way to systematically reduce (and quantify) model uncertainties, thus supporting the decision-making process and/or regulatory-purpose activities in a very effective manner

Caribbean Plate margin evolution : constraints and current problems

Oceanic crust was generated at multiple spreading centres during the Jurassic and Early Cretaceous, forming a "proto-Caribbean" oceanic domain. During the Cretaceous, part of that crustal domain thickened into an oceanic plateau, of petrologic Mid-Ocean Ridge (MOR) to Ocean Island Basalt (OIB) affinity. Simultaneously, the South and North American continental plates developed rifting and tholeiitic magmatism in the Middle America region (Venezuela and Cuba). The rifting created space for the proto-Caribbean oceanic domain. Petrological and regional correlations suggest that, beginning in the Cretaceous, the proto-Caribbean domain was involved into two main stages of subduction, referred to as first and second "eo-Caribbean" phases. Each phase is characterized by oblique convergence. The older (mid-Cretaceous) stage, involved in subduction (probably eastward dipping) of thin proto-Caribbean lithosphere, with generation of Island Arc Tholeiitic (IAT) and Calc-Alkaline (CA) magmatism, accompanied by high pressure - low temperature (HP - LT) metamorphic effects, and formation of arc units and ophiolitic melanges (Guatemala, Cuba, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, in the northern margin; Venezuela in the southern). The Late Cretaceous second stage consisted of westward dipping intra-oceanic subduction; it is recorded by tonalitic arc magmatism related to the onset of the Aves - Lesser Antilles arc system. Since the Late Cretaceous, the inner undeformed portions of the Caribbean oceanic plateau (i.e. the Colombian and Venezuelan Basins) were trapped east of the Pacific subduction of the Chortis, Chorotega and Choco blocks, ultimately building the Central American Isthmus. From Tertiary to Present, continuous eastward movement of the Caribbean Plate with respect to the Americas, gave rise to transpression along both the northern and southern margins, marked by scattered and dismembered ophiolitic terranes

Seeking for the Rational Basis of the Median Model: The Optimal Combination of Multi-model ENSEMBLE Results

In this paper we present an approach for the statistical analysis of multi-model ENSEMBLE results. The models considered here are operational long-range transport and dispersion models, also used for the real-time simulation of pollutant dispersion or the accidental release 5 of radioactive nuclides. We first introduce the theoretical basis (with its roots sinking into the Bayes theorem) and then apply this approach to the analysis of model results obtained during the ETEX-1 exercise. We recover some interesting results, supporting the heuristic approach called ‘median model’, originally introduced in Galmarini et al., 2004 a,b. This approach also provides a way to systematically reduce (and quantify) model uncertainties, thus supporting the decision-making process and/or regulatory-purpose activities in a very effective manner.JRC.H.4-Transport and air qualit

The supergiant fast X-ray transients XTE J1739-302 and IGR J08408-4503 in quiescence with XMM-Newton

Context. Supergiant fast X-ray transients are a subclass of high mass X-ray binaries that host a neutron star accreting mass from the wind of its OB supergiant companion. They are characterized by an extremely pronounced and rapid variability in X-rays, which still lacks an unambiguous interpretation. A number of deep pointed observations with XMM-Newton have been carried out to study the quiescent emission of these sources and gain insight into the mechanism that causes their X-ray variability. Aims. We continued this study by using three XMM-Newton observations of the two supergiant fast X-ray transient prototypes XTEJ1739-302 and IGR J08408-4503 in quiescence. Methods. An in-depth timing and spectral analysis of these data have been carried out. Results. We found that the quiescent emission of these sources is characterized by both complex timing and spectral variability, with multiple small flares occurring sporadically after periods of lower X-ray emission. Some evidence is found in the XMM-Newton spectra of a soft component below ~2 keV, similar to that observed in the two supergiant fast X-ray transients AXJ1845.0-0433 and IGRJ16207-5129 and in many other high mass X-ray binaries. Conclusions.We suggest some possible interpretations of the timing and spectral properties of the quiescent emission of XTEJ1739- 302 and IGR J08408-4503 in the context of the different theoretical models proposed to interpret the behavior of the supergiant fast X-ray transients.Comment: 13 pages, 14 figures. Accepted for publication in A&A. V2: Corrected few typo

Diagnosing transient ionization in dynamic events

The present study aims to provide a diagnostic line ratio that will enable the observer to determine whether a plasma is in a state of transient ionization. We use the Atomic Data and Analysis Structure (ADAS) to calculate line contribution functions for two lines, Si IV 1394 A and O IV 1401 A, formed in the solar transition region. The generalized collisional-radiative theory is used. It includes all radiative and electron collisional processes, except for photon-induced processes. State-resolved direct ionization and recombination to and from the next ionization stage are also taken into account. For dynamic bursts with a decay time of a few seconds, the Si IV 1394 A line can be enhanced by a factor of 2-4 in the first fraction of a second with the peak in the line contribution function occurring initially at a higher electron temperature due to transient ionization compared to ionization equilibrium conditions. On the other hand, the O IV 1401 A does not show such any enhancement. Thus the ratio of these two lines, which can be observed with the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph, can be used as a diagnostic of transient ionization. We show that simultaneous high-cadence observations of two lines formed in the solar transition region may be used as a direct diagnostic of whether the observed plasma is in transient ionization. The ratio of these two lines can change by a factor of four in a few seconds owing to transient ionization alone.Comment: 3 pages, in press A&

Le strategie comunicative di Cosa nostra: una ricerca empirica

The following article proposes an empirical study to explore communication strategies in Cosa Nostra. Psychological studies on the characteristics of the language used within the criminal organization are undoubtedly recent, but crucial to thoroughly understand the characteristics of the implicit and explicit communication it adopts in the various contexts it works, as well as the power and value they assume. The data we have obtained from some videos concerning interviews and police interrogations to men of honor have been analyzed through a method which refers to the grounds of qualitative research in clinical psychology, the Grounded Theory (Glaser, Strauss; 1967). The analysis we have carried out and its relevant data show us a world of Mafia where the care for linguistic choices, for both form and contents, is characterized as a crucial activity, even when words are replaced by silence or gestures

One year of CNR-IMAA multi-wavelength Raman lidar measurements in coincidence with CALIPSO overpasses: Level 1 products comparison

At CNR-IMAA, an aerosol lidar system has operated since May 2000 in the framework of EARLINET (European Aerosol Research Lidar Network), the first lidar network for tropospheric aerosol study on a continental scale. High quality multi-wavelength measurements make this system a reference point for the validation of data products provided by CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations), the first satellite-borne lidar specifically designed for aerosol and cloud study. Since 14 June 2006, dedicated measurements have been performed at CNR-IMAA in coincidence with CALIPSO overpasses. For the first time, results on 1-year comparisons between ground-based multi-wavelength Raman lidar measurements and corresponding CALIPSO lidar Level 1 profiles are presented. A methodology for the comparison is presented and discussed in detail. Night-time cases are considered to take advantage from Raman capability of the ground based lidar. Cases with the detection of cirrus clouds in CALIPSO data are separately analysed for taking into account multiple scattering effects. For cirrus cloud cases, few cases are available to draw any conclusions. For clear sky conditions, the comparison shows good performances of the CALIPSO on-board lidar: the mean relative difference between the ground-based and CALIPSO Level 1 measurements is always within its standard deviation at all altitudes, with a mean difference in the 3–8 km altitude range of (−2±12)%. At altitude ranges corresponding to the typical PBL height observed at CNR-IMAA, a mean difference of (−24±20)% is observed in CALIPSO data, probably due to the difference in the aerosol content at the location of PEARL and CALIPSO ground-track location. Finally, the mean differences are on average lower at all altitude ranges for the closest overpasses (at about 40 km) respect to the 80-km overpasses

XMM-Newton observations of IGRJ18410-0535: The ingestion of a clump by a supergiant fast X-ray transient

IGRJ18410-0535 is a supergiant fast X-ray transients. This subclass of supergiant X-ray binaries typically undergoes few- hour-long outbursts reaching luminosities of 10^(36)-10^(37) erg/s, the occurrence of which has been ascribed to the combined effect of the intense magnetic field and rotation of the compact object hosted in them and/or the presence of dense structures ("clumps") in the wind of their supergiant companion. IGR J18410-0535 was observed for 45 ks by XMM-Newton as part of a program designed to study the quiescent emission of supergiant fast X-ray transients and clarify the origin of their peculiar X-ray variability. We carried out an in-depth spectral and timing analysis of these XMM-Newton data. IGR J18410-0535 underwent a bright X-ray flare that started about 5 ks after the beginning of the observation and lasted for \sim15 ks. Thanks to the capabilities of the instruments on-board XMM-Newton, the whole event could be followed in great detail. The results of our analysis provide strong convincing evidence that the flare was produced by the accretion of matter from a massive clump onto the compact object hosted in this system. By assuming that the clump is spherical and moves at the same velocity as the homogeneous stellar wind, we estimate a mass and radius of Mcl \simeq1.4\times10^(22) g and Rcl \simeq8\times10^(11) cm. These are in qualitative agreement with values expected from theoretical calculations. We found no evidence of pulsations at \sim4.7 s after investigating coherent modulations in the range 3.5 ms-100 s. A reanalysis of the archival ASCA and Swift data of IGR J18410-0535, for which these pulsations were previously detected, revealed that they were likely to be due to a statistical fluctuation and an instrumental effect, respectively.Comment: Accepted for publication on A&A. V2: Inserted correct version of Fig.1

Adipose-derived stem cells: true or false? A different point of view

SPECIAL EDITORIA