Towards a regional ocean forecasting system for the IBI (Iberia-Biscay-Ireland area): developments and improvements within the ECOOP project framework

The regional ocean operational system remains a key element in downscaling from large scale (global or basin scale) systems to coastal ones. It enables the transition between systems in which the resolution and the resolved physics are quite different. Indeed, coastal applications need a system to predict local high frequency events (inferior to the day) such as storm surges, while deep sea applications need a system to predict large scale lower frequency ocean features. In the framework of the ECOOP project, a regional system for the Iberia-Biscay-Ireland area has been upgraded from an existing V0 version to a V2. This paper focuses on the improvements from the V1 system, for which the physics are close to a large scale basin system, to the V2 for which the physics are more adapted to shelf and coastal issues. Strong developments such as higher regional physics resolution in the NEMO Ocean General Circulation Model for tides, non linear free surface and adapted vertical mixing schemes among others have been implemented in the V2 version. Thus, regional thermal fronts due to tidal mixing now appear in the latest version solution and are quite well positioned. Moreover, simulation of the stratification in shelf areas is also improved in the V2

Forecasting the mixed-layer depth in the Northeast Atlantic: an ensemble approach, with uncertainties based on data from operational ocean forecasting systems

Operational systems operated by Mercator Ocean provide daily ocean forecasts, and combining these forecasts we can produce ensemble forecast and uncertainty estimates. This study focuses on the mixed-layer depth in the Northeast Atlantic near the Porcupine Abyssal Plain for May 2013. This period is of interest for several reasons: (1) four Mercator Ocean operational systems provide daily forecasts at a horizontal resolution of 1/4, 1/12 and 1/36° with different physics; (2) glider deployment under the OSMOSIS project provides observation of the changes in mixed-layer depth; (3) the ocean stratifies in May, but mixing events induced by gale force wind are observed and forecast by the systems. Statistical scores and forecast error quantification for each system and for the combined products are presented. Skill scores indicate that forecasts are consistently better than persistence, and temporal correlations between forecast and observations are greater than 0.8 even for the 4-day forecast. The impact of atmospheric forecast error, and for the wind field in particular (miss or time delay of a wind burst forecast), is also quantified in terms of occurrence and intensity of mixing or stratification events

Corrigendum to "NEMO on the shelf: assessment of the Iberia–Biscay–Ireland configuration" published in Ocean Sci., 9, 745–771, 2013

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Modelling turbulent vertical mixing sensitivity using a 1-D version of NEMO

Through two numerical experiments, a 1-D vertical model called NEMO1D was used to investigate physical and numerical turbulent-mixing behaviour. The results show that all the turbulent closures tested (<i>k</i>+</i>l</i> from Blanke and Delecluse, 1993, and two equation models: generic length scale closures from Umlauf and Burchard, 2003) are able to correctly reproduce the classical test of Kato and Phillips (1969) under favourable numerical conditions while some solutions may diverge depending on the degradation of the spatial and time discretization. The performances of turbulence models were then compared with data measured over a 1-year period (mid-2010 to mid-2011) at the PAPA station, located in the North Pacific Ocean. The modelled temperature and salinity were in good agreement with the observations, with a maximum temperature error between −2 and 2 °C during the stratified period (June to October). However, the results also depend on the numerical conditions. The vertical RMSE varied, for different turbulent closures, from 0.1 to 0.3 °C during the stratified period and from 0.03 to 0.15 °C during the homogeneous period. This 1-D configuration at the PAPA station (called PAPA1D) is now available in NEMO as a reference configuration including the input files and atmospheric forcing set described in this paper. Thus, all the results described can be recovered by downloading and launching PAPA1D. The configuration is described on the NEMO site (<a href="http://www.nemo-ocean.eu/Using-NEMO/Configurations/C1D_PAPA">http://www.nemo-ocean.eu/Using-NEMO/Configurations/C1D_PAPA</a>). This package is a good starting point for further investigation of vertical processes

References

www.geosci-model-dev-discuss.net/7/5249/2014/ doi:10.5194/gmdd-7-5249-2014 © Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License. This discussion paper is/has been under review for the journal Geoscientific Model Development (GMD). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in GMD if available. Modelling turbulent vertical mixing sensitivity using a 1-D version of NEM

Modelling the marine ecosystem of Iberia–Biscay–Ireland (IBI) European waters for CMEMS operational applications

Abstract. As part of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS), a physical–biogeochemical coupled model system has been developed to monitor and forecast the ocean dynamics and marine ecosystem of the European waters and more specifically on the Iberia–Biscay–Ireland (IBI) area. The CMEMS IBI coupled model covers the north-east Atlantic Ocean from the Canary Islands to Iceland, including the North Sea and the western Mediterranean, with a NEMO-PISCES 1∕36∘ model application. The coupled system has been providing 7 d weekly ocean forecasts for CMEMS since April 2018. Prior to its operational launch, a pre-operational qualification simulation (2010–2016) has allowed assessing the model's capacity to reproduce the main biogeochemical and ecosystem features of the IBI area. The objective of this paper is then to describe the consistency and skill assessment of the PISCES biogeochemical model using this 7-year qualification simulation. The model results are compared with available satellite estimates as well as in situ observations (ICES, EMODnet and BGC-Argo). The simulation successfully reproduces the spatial distribution and seasonal cycles of oxygen, nutrients, chlorophyll a and net primary production, and confirms that PISCES is suitable at such a resolution and can be used for operational analysis and forecast applications. This model system can be a useful tool to better understand the current state and changes in the marine biogeochemistry of European waters and can also provide key variables for developing indicators to monitor the health of marine ecosystems. These indicators may be of interest to scientists, policy makers, environmental agencies and the general public. </jats:p

Evaluation of an operational ocean model configuration at 1/12° spatial resolution for the Indonesian seas – Part 2: Biogeochemistry

Abstract. In the framework of the INDESO (Infrastructure evelopment of Space Oceanography) project, an operational ocean forecasting system was developed to monitor the state of the Indonesian seas in terms of circulation, biogeochemistry and fisheries. This forecasting system combines a suite of numerical models connecting physical and biogeochemical variables to population dynamics of large marine predators (tunas). The physical/biogeochemical coupled component (INDO12BIO configuration) covers a large region extending from the western Pacific Ocean to the Eastern Indian Ocean at 1/12° resolution. The OPA/NEMO physical ocean model and the PISCES biogeochemical model are coupled in "on-line" mode without degradation in space and time. The operational global ocean forecasting system (1/4°) operated by Mercator Ocean provides the physical forcing while climatological open boundary conditions are prescribed for the biogeochemistry. This paper describes the skill assessment of the INDO12BIO configuration. Model skill is assessed by evaluating a reference hindcast simulation covering the last 8 years (2007–2014). Model results are compared to satellite, climatological and in situ observations. Diagnostics are performed on chlorophyll a, primary production, mesozooplankton, nutrients and oxygen. Model results reproduce the main characteristics of biogeochemical tracer distributions in space and time. The seasonal cycle of chlorophyll a is in phase with satellite observations. The northern and southern parts of the archipelago present a distinct seasonal cycle, with higher chlorophyll biomass in the southern (northern) part during SE (NW) monsoon. Nutrient and oxygen concentrations are correctly reproduced in terms of horizontal and vertical distributions. The biogeochemical content of water masses entering in the archipelago as well as the water mass transformation across the archipelago conserves realistic vertical distribution in Banda Sea and at the exit of the archipelago.</jats:p

Evaluation of an operational ocean model configuration at 1/12° spatial resolution for the Indonesian seas (NEMO2.3/INDO12) – Part 2: Biogeochemistry

In the framework of the INDESO (Infrastructure Development of Space Oceanography) project, an operational ocean forecasting system was developed to monitor the state of the Indonesian seas in terms of circulation, biogeochemistry and fisheries. This forecasting system combines a suite of numerical models connecting physical and biogeochemical variables to population dynamics of large marine predators (tunas). The physical–biogeochemical coupled component (the INDO12BIO configuration) covers a large region extending from the western Pacific Ocean to the eastern Indian Ocean at 1/12° horizontal resolution. The NEMO-OPA (Nucleus for European Model of the Ocean) physical ocean model and the PISCES (Pelagic Interactions Scheme for Carbon and Ecosystem Studies) biogeochemical model are running simultaneously ("online" coupling), at the same resolution. The operational global ocean forecasting system (1/4°) operated by Mercator Océan provides the physical forcing, while climatological open boundary conditions are prescribed for the biogeochemistry.<br><br> This paper describes the skill assessment of the INDO12BIO configuration. Model skill is assessed by evaluating a reference hindcast simulation covering the last 8 years (2007–2014). Model results are compared to satellite, climatological and in situ observations. Diagnostics are performed on nutrients, oxygen, chlorophyll <i>a</i>, net primary production and mesozooplankton.<br><br> The model reproduces large-scale distributions of nutrients, oxygen, chlorophyll <i>a</i>, net primary production and mesozooplankton biomasses. Modelled vertical distributions of nutrients and oxygen are comparable to in situ data sets although gradients are slightly smoothed. The model simulates realistic biogeochemical characteristics of North Pacific tropical waters entering in the archipelago. Hydrodynamic transformation of water masses across the Indonesian archipelago allows for conserving nitrate and oxygen vertical distribution close to observations, in the Banda Sea and at the exit of the archipelago. While the model overestimates the mean surface chlorophyll <i>a</i>, the seasonal cycle is in phase with satellite estimations, with higher chlorophyll <i>a</i> concentrations in the southern part of the archipelago during the SE monsoon and in the northern part during the NW monsoon. The time series of chlorophyll <i>a</i> anomalies suggests that meteorological and ocean physical processes that drive the interannual variability of biogeochemical properties in the Indonesian region are reproduced by the model

Evaluation of an operational ocean model configuration at 1/12° spatial resolution for the Indonesian seas (NEMO2.3/INDO12) &ndash; Part 1: Ocean physics

INDO12 is a 1/12° regional version of the NEMO physical ocean model covering the whole Indonesian EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone). It has been developed and is now running every week in the framework of the INDESO (Infrastructure Development of Space Oceanography) project implemented by the Indonesian Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries.<br><br> The initial hydrographic conditions as well as open-boundary conditions are derived from the operational global ocean forecasting system at 1/4° operated by Mercator Océan. Atmospheric forcing fields (3-hourly ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) analyses) are used to force the regional model. INDO12 is also forced by tidal currents and elevations, and by the inverse barometer effect. The turbulent mixing induced by internal tides is taken into account through a specific parameterisation. In this study we evaluate the model skill through comparisons with various data sets including outputs of the parent model, climatologies, in situ temperature and salinity measurements, and satellite data. The biogeochemical model results assessment is presented in a companion paper (Gutknecht et al., 2015).<br><br> The simulated and altimeter-derived Eddy Kinetic Energy fields display similar patterns and confirm that tides are a dominant forcing in the area. The volume transport of the Indonesian throughflow (ITF) is in good agreement with the INSTANT estimates while the transport through Luzon Strait is, on average, westward but probably too weak. Compared to satellite data, surface salinity and temperature fields display marked biases in the South China Sea. Significant water mass transformation occurs along the main routes of the ITF and compares well with observations. Vertical mixing is able to modify the South and North Pacific subtropical water-salinity maximum as seen in <i>T</i>–<i>S</i> diagrams.<br><br> In spite of a few weaknesses, INDO12 proves to be able to provide a very realistic simulation of the ocean circulation and water mass transformation through the Indonesian Archipelago. Work is ongoing to reduce or eliminate the remaining problems in the second INDO12 version