Closed-Form Bayesian Inferences for the Logit Model via Polynomial Expansions

Articles in Marketing and choice literatures have demonstrated the need for incorporating person-level heterogeneity into behavioral models (e.g., logit models for multiple binary outcomes as studied here). However, the logit likelihood extended with a population distribution of heterogeneity doesn't yield closed-form inferences, and therefore numerical integration techniques are relied upon (e.g., MCMC methods). We present here an alternative, closed-form Bayesian inferences for the logit model, which we obtain by approximating the logit likelihood via a polynomial expansion, and then positing a distribution of heterogeneity from a flexible family that is now conjugate and integrable. For problems where the response coefficients are independent, choosing the Gamma distribution leads to rapidly convergent closed-form expansions; if there are correlations among the coefficients one can still obtain rapidly convergent closed-form expansions by positing a distribution of heterogeneity from a Multivariate Gamma distribution. The solution then comes from the moment generating function of the Multivariate Gamma distribution or in general from the multivariate heterogeneity distribution assumed. Closed-form Bayesian inferences, derivatives (useful for elasticity calculations), population distribution parameter estimates (useful for summarization) and starting values (useful for complicated algorithms) are hence directly available. Two simulation studies demonstrate the efficacy of our approach.Comment: 30 pages, 2 figures, corrected some typos. Appears in Quantitative Marketing and Economics vol 4 (2006), no. 2, 173--20

Undergraduate medical textbooks do not provide adequate information on intravenous fluid therapy: a systematic survey and suggestions for improvement

<b>Background</b><p></p> Inappropriate prescribing of intravenous (IV) fluid, particularly 0.9% sodium chloride, causes post-operative complications. Fluid prescription is often left to junior medical staff and is frequently poorly managed. One reason for poor intravenous fluid prescribing practices could be inadequate coverage of this topic in the textbooks that are used.<p></p> <b>Methods</b><p></p> We formulated a comprehensive set of topics, related to important common clinical situations involving IV fluid therapy, (routine fluid replacement, fluid loss, fluids overload) to assess the adequacy of textbooks in common use. We assessed 29 medical textbooks widely available to students in the UK, scoring the presence of information provided by each book on each of the topics. The scores indicated how fully the topics were considered: not at all, partly, and adequately. No attempt was made to judge the quality of the information, because there is no consensus on these topics.<p></p> <b>Results</b><p></p> The maximum score that a book could achieve was 52. Three of the topics we chose were not considered by any of the books. Discounting these topics as “too esoteric”, the maximum possible score became 46. One textbook gained a score of 45, but the general score was poor (median 11, quartiles 4, 21). In particular, coverage of routine postoperative management was inadequate.<p></p> <b>Conclusions</b><p></p> Textbooks for undergraduates cover the topic of intravenous therapy badly, which may partly explain the poor knowledge and performance of junior doctors in this important field. Systematic revision of current textbooks might improve knowledge and practice by junior doctors. Careful definition of the remit and content of textbooks should be applied more widely to ensure quality and “fitness for purpose”, and avoid omission of vital knowledge

A practitioner's guide to Bayesian estimation of discrete choice dynamic programming models

This paper provides a step-by-step guide to estimating infinite horizon discrete choice dynamic programming (DDP) models using a new Bayesian estimation algorithm (Imai et al., Econometrica 77:1865–1899, 2009a) (IJC). In the conventional nested fixed point algorithm, most of the information obtained in the past iterations remains unused in the current iteration. In contrast, the IJC algorithm extensively uses the computational results obtained from the past iterations to help solve the DDP model at the current iterated parameter values. Consequently, it has the potential to significantly alleviate the computational burden of estimating DDP models. To illustrate this new estimation method, we use a simple dynamic store choice model where stores offer “frequent-buyer” type rewards programs. Our Monte Carlo results demonstrate that the IJC method is able to recover the true parameter values of this model quite precisely. We also show that the IJC method could reduce the estimation time significantly when estimating DDP models with unobserved heterogeneity, especially when the discount factor is close to 1

A systematic review of home-based dietary interventions during radiation therapy for cancer.

Purpose: Our objectives are to assess (1) the acceptability and feasibility of dietary interventions for patients undergoing radiation therapy (RT), and (2) the impact of dietary interventions on patient reported outcomes, toxicities, and survival. Methods: A PICOS/PRISMA/MOOSE selection protocol was used to include articles that evaluate adding dietary interventions to patients receiving RT. Acceptability was defined as (# accepting/# approached); feasibility was (# completing/# approached). Patient-reported outcomes were reported based on questionnaires used in each study and survival was measured from the date of diagnosis until death in each study. Level of evidence was assessed with Center for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM) criteria. Results: Sixteen articles were included; among these, 2027 patients were approached regarding the intervention, and 1661 accepted (81.9%); of these, 1543 (92.9%) completed the prescribed diet + RT course. The most common cancers included were gynecological, head and neck, and gastrointestinal. For patients with pelvic cancers, a high fiber diet may improve diarrhea (CEBM level 1b). Enteral nutrition formula, including formulas with proteins such as L-arginine, lipids such as eicosapentaenoic acids, glucids, and ribonucleotides, may help prevent of malnutrition in head and neck cancer patients undergoing RT (level 2b). Vitamin C and β-carotene may reduce of xerostomia in head and neck cancer patients; however, the studies evaluating these vitamins included vitamin E, which increases all-cause mortality (level 2b). No dietary intervention for cancer patients receiving RT has been shown to improve survival. Conclusion: There are limited data to support safe and efficacious use of dietary interventions during RT

Choice Models in Marketing: Economic Assumptions, Challenges and Trends

Direct utility models of consumer choice are reviewed and developed for understanding consumer preferences. We begin with a review of statistical models of choice, posing a series of modeling challenges that are resolved by considering economic foundations based on con-strained utility maximization. Direct utility models differ from other choice models by directly modeling the consumer utility function used to derive the likelihood of the data through Kuhn-Tucker con-ditions. Recent advances in Bayesian estimation make the estimation of these models computationally feasible, offering advantages in model interpretation over models based on indirect utility, and descriptive models that tend to be highly parameterized. Future trends are dis-cussed in terms of the antecedents and enhancements of utility function specification.

Molecular Diversity via Tetrasubstituted Alkenes Containing a Barbiturate Motif: Synthesis and Biological Activity

The synthesis of a molecularly diverse library of tetrasubstituted alkenes containing a barbiturate motif is described. Base-induced condensation of N1-substituted pyrimidine-2,4,6(1H,3H,5H)-triones with 5-(bis(methylthio)methylene)-2,2-dimethyl-1,3-dioxane-4,6-dione gave 3-substituted 5-(methylthio)-2H-pyrano[2,3-d]pyrimidine-2,4,7(1H,3H)-triones (‘pyranopyrimidinones’), regioselectively. A sequence of reactions involving ring-opening of the pyran moiety, displacement of the methylthio group with an amine, re-formation of the pyran ring, and after its final cleavage with an amine, gave tetrasubstituted alkenes (3-amino-3-(2,4,6-trioxotetrahydropyrimidin-5(2H)-ylidene)propanamides) with a diversity of substituents. Cleavage of the pyranopyrimidinones with an aniline was facilitated in 2,2,2-trifluoroethanol under microwave irradiation. Compounds were tested against Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, the yeast Schizosaccharomyces pombe, and the pathogenic fungus Candida albicans. No compounds exhibited activity against E. coli, whilst one compound was weakly active against S. aureus. Three compounds were strongly active against S. pombe, but none was active against C. albicans

A randomized, double-blind, placebo controlled safety, tolerability, and pharmacokinetic dose escalation study of a gentamicin vancomycin gel in patients undergoing colorectal surgery

BACKGROUND: Despite numerous interventions promulgated by the Surgical Care Improve Project (SCIP) and other organizations, surgical site infection (SSI) continues to be a significant medical problem. DFA-02 is a novel bioresorbable modified-release gel consisting of both gentamicin (16.8 mg/mL) and vancomycin (18.8 mg/mL) to be applied during surgical incision closure for the prevention of SSIs. The following double-blind phase 2a trial was designed to test the safety and tolerability of DFA-02. METHODS: At six US sites, the study planned to randomize 40 subjects undergoing colorectal surgery (30 with DFA-02, and eight with placebo gel) in four ascending dose cohorts (10-, 20-, 30-, and 40-mL study drug per wound). Safety was ascertained and serum pharmacokinetics (PK) was determined. RESULTS: Study enrollment was discontinued after the first three dose cohorts (10, 20, and 30 mL) as even very large incisions could not accommodate more than 20 mL of gel, leaving no scientific justification for the 40-mL cohort. DFA-02 was well tolerated and showed no evidence of local tissue reaction or impairment of wound healing. No serious AEs were deemed related to study drug. Systemic exposure to gentamicin and vancomycin remained well below levels considered to be at higher risk for oto- or nephrotoxicity. The maximal gentamicin and vancomycin levels observed were 2.36 and 0.684 μg/mL at 6 h, which were well below the prespecified stopping criteria of 12 and 20 μg/mL, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In this small phase 2a study, the study drug was well tolerated and appeared to be free of serious adverse effects. Consistent with these findings, the PK values were consistent with gradual release of the antibiotics from the gel in the surgical site. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT0149635