Certified Roundoff Error Bounds Using Semidefinite Programming.

Roundoff errors cannot be avoided when implementing numerical programs with finite precision. The ability to reason about rounding is especially important if one wants to explore a range of potential representations, for instance for FPGAs or custom hardware implementation. This problem becomes challenging when the program does not employ solely linear operations as non-linearities are inherent to many interesting computational problems in real-world applications. Existing solutions to reasoning are limited in the presence of nonlinear correlations between variables, leading to either imprecise bounds or high analysis time. Furthermore, while it is easy to implement a straightforward method such as interval arithmetic, sophisticated techniques are less straightforward to implement in a formal setting. Thus there is a need for methods which output certificates that can be formally validated inside a proof assistant. We present a framework to provide upper bounds on absolute roundoff errors. This framework is based on optimization techniques employing semidefinite programming and sums of squares certificates, which can be formally checked inside the Coq theorem prover. Our tool covers a wide range of nonlinear programs, including polynomials and transcendental operations as well as conditional statements. We illustrate the efficiency and precision of this tool on non-trivial programs coming from biology, optimization and space control. Our tool produces more precise error bounds for 37 percent of all programs and yields better performance in 73 percent of all programs

Repetitive arm functional tasks after stroke (RAFTAS): a pilot randomised controlled trial

Background Repetitive functional task practise (RFTP) is a promising treatment to improve upper limb recovery following stroke. We report the findings of a study to determine the feasibility of a multi-centre randomised controlled trial to evaluate this intervention. Methods A pilot randomised controlled trial was conducted. Patients with new reduced upper limb function were recruited within 14 days of acute stroke from three stroke units in North East England. Participants were randomised to receive a four week upper limb RFTP therapy programme consisting of goal setting, independent activity practise, and twice weekly therapy reviews in addition to usual post stroke rehabilitation, or usual post stroke rehabilitation. The recruitment rate; adherence to the RFTP therapy programme; usual post stroke rehabilitation received; attrition rate; data quality; success of outcome assessor blinding; adverse events; and the views of study participants and therapists about the intervention were recorded. Results Fifty five eligible patients were identified, 4-6% of patients screened at each site. Twenty four patients participated in the pilot study. Two of the three study sites met the recruitment target of 1-2 participants per month. The median number of face to face therapy sessions received was 6 [IQR 3-8]. The median number of daily repetitions of activities recorded was 80 [IQR 39-80]. Data about usual post stroke rehabilitation were available for 18/24 (75%). Outcome data were available for 22/24 (92%) at one month and 20/24 (83%) at three months. Outcome assessors were unblinded to participant group allocation for 11/22 (50%) at one month and 6/20 (30%) at three months. Four adverse events were considered serious as they resulted in hospitalisation. None were related to study treatment. Feedback from patients and local NHS therapists about the RFTP programme was mainly positive. Conclusions A multi-centre randomised controlled trial to evaluate an upper limb RFTP therapy programme provided early after stroke is feasible and acceptable to patients and therapists, but there are issues which needed to be addressed when designing a Phase III study. A Phase III study will need to monitor and report not only recruitment and attrition but also adherence to the intervention, usual post stroke rehabilitation received, and outcome assessor blinding

Large-scale replication study reveals a limit on probabilistic prediction in language comprehension

Do people routinely pre-activate the meaning and even the phonological form of upcoming words? The most acclaimed evidence for phonological prediction comes from a 2005 Nature Neuroscience publication by DeLong, Urbach and Kutas, who observed a graded modulation of electrical brain potentials (N400) to nouns and preceding articles by the probability that people use a word to continue the sentence fragment (‘cloze’). In our direct replication study spanning 9 laboratories (N=334), pre-registered replication-analyses and exploratory Bayes factor analyses successfully replicated the noun-results but, crucially, not the article-results. Pre-registered single-trial analyses also yielded a statistically significant effect for the nouns but not the articles. Exploratory Bayesian single-trial analyses showed that the article-effect may be non-zero but is likely far smaller than originally reported and too small to observe without very large sample sizes. Our results do not support the view that readers routinely pre-activate the phonological form of predictable words

Design of a randomized controlled trial for multiple cancer risk behaviors among Spanish-speaking Mexican-origin smokers

Background: Smoking, poor diet, and physical inactivity account for as much as 60% of cancer risk. Latinos experience profound disparities in health behaviors, as well as the cancers associated with them. Currently, there is a dearth of controlled trials addressing these health behaviors among Latinos. Further, to the best of our knowledge, no studies address all three behaviors simultaneously, are culturally sensitive, and are guided by formative work with the target population. Latinos represent 14% of the U. S. population and are the fastest growing minority group in the country. Efforts to intervene on these important lifestyle factors among Latinos may accelerate the elimination of cancer-related health disparities

Boost Camp’, a universal school-based transdiagnostic prevention program targeting adolescent emotion regulation; evaluating the effectiveness by a clustered RCT : a protocol paper

Abstract Background The transition from childhood into adolescence can be considered as a critical developmental period. Moreover, adolescence is associated with a decreased use of adaptive emotion regulation strategies and an increased use of maladaptive emotion regulation strategies increasing the risk of emotional problems. Targeting emotion regulation is therefore seen as an innovative prevention approach. The present study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of Boost camp, an innovative school-based prevention program targeting ER, on adolescents’ emotion regulation skills and emotional wellbeing. Also secondary outcomes and possible moderators will be included. Methods The aim is to reach 300 adolescents (16 class groups, 6 schools) in their first year of high school. A clustered Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) with two conditions, intervention (n = 150) and control (n = 150), will be set up. Adolescents in the intervention condition will receive 14 lessons over the course of 2 days, followed by Booster sessions, and will be compared with adolescents in a non-intervention control group. The outcomes will be measured by self-report questionnaires at baseline, immediately after Boost camp, and at three and 6 months follow-up. Discussion Data-collection is planned to be completed in May 2018. Data-analyses will be finished the end of 2018. The presented paper describes the Boost camp program and the clustered RCT design to evaluate its effectiveness. It is expected that Boost camp will have beneficial effects. If found effective, Boost camp will have the potential to increase adolescent’s ER and well-being, and reduce the risk to become adults in need. The trials is registered on the 13th of June 2017 in ISRCTN registry [ISRCTN68235634]

The consumer scam: an agency-theoretic approach

Despite the extensive body of literature that aims to explain the phenomenon of consumer scams, the structure of information in scam relationships remains relatively understudied. The purpose of this article is to develop an agency-theoretical approach to the study of information in perpetrator-victim interactions. Drawing a distinction between failures of observation and failures of judgement in the pre-contract phase, we introduce a typology and a set of propositions that explain the severity of adverse selection problems in three classes of scam relationships. Our analysis provides a novel, systematic explanation of the structure of information that facilitates scam victimisation, while also enabling critical scrutiny of a core assumption in agency theory regarding contract design. We highlight the role of scam perpetrators as agents who have access to private information and exercise considerable control over the terms and design of scam relationships. Focusing on the consumer scam context, we question a theoretical assumption, largely taken for granted in the agency literature, that contact design is necessarily in the purview of the uninformed principal

The impact of ambient temperature on mortality among the urban population in Skopje, Macedonia during the period 1996–2000

BACKGROUND: This study assesses the relationship between daily numbers of deaths and variations in ambient temperature within the city of Skopje, R. Macedonia. METHODS: The daily number of deaths from all causes, during the period 1996–2000, as well as those deaths from cardiovascular diseases, occurring within the city of Skopje were related to the average daily temperature on the same day using Multiple Regression statistical analyses. Temperature was measured within the regression model as two complementary variables: 'Warm' and 'Cold'. Excess winter mortality was calculated as winter deaths (deaths occurring in December to March) minus the average of non-winter deaths (April to July of the current year and August to November of the previous year). RESULTS: In this study the average daily total of deaths was 7% and 13% greater in the cold when compared to the whole period and warm period respectively. The same relationship was noticed for deaths caused by cardiovascular diseases. The Regression Beta Coefficient (b = -0.19) for the total mortality as a function of the temperature in Skopje during the period 1996–2000 was statistically significant with negative connotation as was the circulatory mortality due to average temperature (statistically significant regression Beta coefficient (b = -0.24)). A measure of this increase is provided, on an annual basis, in the form of the excess winter mortality figure. CONCLUSION: Mortality with in the city of Skopje displayed a marked seasonality, with peaks in the winter and relative troughs in the summer