Inertia in the North American Electricity Industry: Can the Kyoto Protocol Objectives Be Realistically Met?

If they are to be attained, the objectives set in the Kyoto Protocol will impose fundamental changes on the structure of North America's economy. This text highlights the extent of the Kyoto challenge by clearly describing the historical inertia in terms of total market shares for different production technologies of the North American electricity industry. It also compares two potential scenarios of the industry changes needed to attain the Kyoto objectives. The results obtained suggest that it will be virtually impossible to reach the Kyoto objectives within the electricity industry.Kyoto Protocol, Electricity Industry, Technological Change

Inertia in the North American Electricity Industry: Can the Kyoto Protocol Objectives be Realistically Met?

If they are to be attained, the objectives set in the Kyoto Protocol will impose fundamental changes on the structure of North America's economy. This text highlights the extent of the Kyoto challenge by clearly describing the historical inertia in terms of total market shares for different production technologies of the North American electricity industry. It also compares two potential scenarios of the industry changes needed to attain the Kyoto objectives. The results obtained suggest that it will be virtually impossible to reach the Kyoto objectives within the electricity industry.Kyoto Protocol, Electricity Industry, Technological Change

Closing the sea surface mixed layer temperature budget from in situ observations alone: Operation Advection during BoBBLE

Sea surface temperature (SST) is a fundamental driver of tropical weather systems such as monsoon rainfall and tropical cyclones. However, understanding of the factors that control SST variability is lacking, especially during the monsoons when in situ observations are sparse. Here we use a ground-breaking observational approach to determine the controls on the SST variability in the southern Bay of Bengal. We achieve this through the first full closure of the ocean mixed layer energy budget derived entirely from in situ observations during the Bay of Bengal Boundary Layer Experiment (BoBBLE). Locally measured horizontal advection and entrainment contribute more significantly than expected to SST evolution and thus oceanic variability during the observation period. These processes are poorly resolved by state-of-the-art climate models, which may contribute to poor representation of monsoon rainfall variability. The novel techniques presented here provide a blueprint for future observational experiments to quantify the mixed layer heat budget on longer time scales and to evaluate these processes in models

Prospects for the development of odour baits to control the tsetse flies Glossina tachinoides and G. palpalis s.l.

Field studies were done of the responses of Glossina palpalis palpalis in Côte d'Ivoire, and G. p. gambiensis and G. tachinoides in Burkina Faso, to odours from humans, cattle and pigs. Responses were measured either by baiting (1.) biconical traps or (2.) electrocuting black targets with natural host odours. The catch of G. tachinoides from traps was significantly enhanced (~5×) by odour from cattle but not humans. In contrast, catches from electric targets showed inconsistent results. For G. p. gambiensis both human and cattle odour increased (>2×) the trap catch significantly but not the catch from electric targets. For G. p. palpalis, odours from pigs and humans increased (~5×) the numbers of tsetse attracted to the vicinity of the odour source but had little effect on landing or trap-entry. For G. tachinoides a blend of POCA (P = 3-n-propylphenol; O = 1-octen-3-ol; C = 4-methylphenol; A = acetone) alone or synthetic cattle odour (acetone, 1-octen-3-ol, 4-methylphenol and 3-n-propylphenol with carbon dioxide) consistently caught more tsetse than natural cattle odour. For G. p. gambiensis, POCA consistently increased catches from both traps and targets. For G. p. palpalis, doses of carbon dioxide similar to those produced by a host resulted in similar increases in attraction. Baiting traps with super-normal (~500 mg/h) doses of acetone also consistently produced significant but slight (~1.6×) increases in catches of male flies. The results suggest that odour-baited traps and insecticide-treated targets could assist the AU-Pan African Tsetse and Trypanosomiasis Eradication Campaign (PATTEC) in its current efforts to monitor and control Palpalis group tsetse in West Africa. For all three species, only ~50% of the flies attracted to the vicinity of the trap were actually caught by it, suggesting that better traps might be developed by an analysis of the visual responses and identification of any semiochemicals involved in short-range interaction

Skin Cancers Among Albinos at a University Teaching Hospital in Northwestern Tanzania: A Retrospective Review of 64 Cases.

Skin cancers are a major risk associated with albinism and are thought to be a major cause of death in African albinos. The challenges associated with the care of these patients are numerous and need to be addressed. The aim of this study was to outline the pattern and treatment outcome of skin cancers among albinos treated at our centre and to highlight challenges associated with the care of these patients and proffer solutions for improved outcome. This was a retrospective study of all albinos with a histopathological diagnosis of skin cancer seen at Bugando Medical Centre from March 2001 to February 2010. Data collected were analyzed using descriptive statistics. A total of 64 patients were studied. The male to female ratio was 1.5:1. The median age of patients was 30 years. The median duration of illness at presentation was 24 months. The commonest reason for late presentation was financial problem. Head and the neck was the most frequent site afflicted in 46(71.8%) patients. Squamous cell carcinoma was the most common histopathological type in 75% of cases. Surgical operation was the commonest modality of treatment in 60 (93.8%) patients. Radiotherapy was given in 24(37.5%) patients. Twenty-seven (42.2%) of the patients did not complete their treatment due to lack of funds. Local recurrence following surgical treatment was recorded in 6 (30.0%) patients. Only thirty-seven (61.7%) patients were available for follow-up at 6-12 months and the remaining patients were lost to follow-up. Skin cancers are the most common cancers among albinos in our environment. Albinism and exposure to ultraviolet light appears to be the most important risk factor in the development of these cancers. Late presentation and failure to complete treatment due to financial difficulties and lack of radiotherapy services at our centre are major challenges in the care of these patients. Early institution of preventive measures, early presentation and treatment, and follow-up should be encouraged in this population for better outcome

Clinical Manifestations and Case Management of Ebola Haemorrhagic Fever caused by a newly identified virus strain, Bundibugyo, Uganda, 2007-2008

A confirmed Ebola haemorrhagic fever (EHF) outbreak in Bundibugyo, Uganda, November 2007-February 2008, was caused by a putative new species (Bundibugyo ebolavirus). It included 93 putative cases, 56 laboratory-confirmed cases, and 37 deaths (CFR = 25%). Study objectives are to describe clinical manifestations and case management for 26 hospitalised laboratory-confirmed EHF patients. Clinical findings are congruous with previously reported EHF infections. The most frequently experienced symptoms were non-bloody diarrhoea (81%), severe headache (81%), and asthenia (77%). Seven patients reported or were observed with haemorrhagic symptoms, six of whom died. Ebola care remains difficult due to the resource-poor setting of outbreaks and the infection-control procedures required. However, quality data collection is essential to evaluate case definitions and therapeutic interventions, and needs improvement in future epidemics. Organizations usually involved in EHF case management have a particular responsibility in this respect

How Many Subpopulations is Too Many? Exponential Lower Bounds for Inferring Population Histories

Reconstruction of population histories is a central problem in population genetics. Existing coalescent-based methods, like the seminal work of Li and Durbin (Nature, 2011), attempt to solve this problem using sequence data but have no rigorous guarantees. Determining the amount of data needed to correctly reconstruct population histories is a major challenge. Using a variety of tools from information theory, the theory of extremal polynomials, and approximation theory, we prove new sharp information-theoretic lower bounds on the problem of reconstructing population structure -- the history of multiple subpopulations that merge, split and change sizes over time. Our lower bounds are exponential in the number of subpopulations, even when reconstructing recent histories. We demonstrate the sharpness of our lower bounds by providing algorithms for distinguishing and learning population histories with matching dependence on the number of subpopulations. Along the way and of independent interest, we essentially determine the optimal number of samples needed to learn an exponential mixture distribution information-theoretically, proving the upper bound by analyzing natural (and efficient) algorithms for this problem.Comment: 38 pages, Appeared in RECOMB 201

Recurrent Modification of a Conserved Cis-Regulatory Element Underlies Fruit Fly Pigmentation Diversity

The development of morphological traits occurs through the collective action of networks of genes connected at the level of gene expression. As any node in a network may be a target of evolutionary change, the recurrent targeting of the same node would indicate that the path of evolution is biased for the relevant trait and network. Although examples of parallel evolution have implicated recurrent modification of the same gene and cis-regulatory element (CRE), little is known about the mutational and molecular paths of parallel CRE evolution. In Drosophila melanogaster fruit flies, the Bric-à-brac (Bab) transcription factors control the development of a suite of sexually dimorphic traits on the posterior abdomen. Female-specific Bab expression is regulated by the dimorphic element, a CRE that possesses direct inputs from body plan (ABD-B) and sex-determination (DSX) transcription factors. Here, we find that the recurrent evolutionary modification of this CRE underlies both intraspecific and interspecific variation in female pigmentation in the melanogaster species group. By reconstructing the sequence and regulatory activity of the ancestral Drosophila melanogaster dimorphic element, we demonstrate that a handful of mutations were sufficient to create independent CRE alleles with differing activities. Moreover, intraspecific and interspecific dimorphic element evolution proceeded with little to no alterations to the known body plan and sex-determination regulatory linkages. Collectively, our findings represent an example where the paths of evolution appear biased to a specific CRE, and drastic changes in function were accompanied by deep conservation of key regulatory linkages. © 2013 Rogers et al

Evaluation of the diagnostic accuracy of prototype rapid tests for human African trypanosomiasis

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

The Impact of HAART on the Respiratory Complications of HIV Infection: Longitudinal Trends in the MACS and WIHS Cohorts

Objective: To review the incidence of respiratory conditions and their effect on mortality in HIV-infected and uninfected individuals prior to and during the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Design: Two large observational cohorts of HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected men (Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study [MACS]) and women (Women's Interagency HIV Study [WIHS]), followed since 1984 and 1994, respectively. Methods: Adjusted odds or hazards ratios for incident respiratory infections or non-infectious respiratory diagnoses, respectively, in HIV-infected compared to HIV-uninfected individuals in both the pre-HAART (MACS only) and HAART eras; and adjusted Cox proportional hazard ratios for mortality in HIV-infected persons with lung disease during the HAART era. Results: Compared to HIV-uninfected participants, HIV-infected individuals had more incident respiratory infections both pre-HAART (MACS, odds ratio [adjusted-OR], 2.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.2-2.7; p<0.001) and after HAART availability (MACS, adjusted-OR, 1.5; 95%CI 1.3-1.7; p<0.001; WIHS adjusted-OR, 2.2; 95%CI 1.8-2.7; p<0.001). Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease was more common in MACS HIV-infected vs. HIV-uninfected participants pre-HAART (hazard ratio [adjusted-HR] 2.9; 95%CI, 1.02-8.4; p = 0.046). After HAART availability, non-infectious lung diseases were not significantly more common in HIV-infected participants in either MACS or WIHS participants. HIV-infected participants in the HAART era with respiratory infections had an increased risk of death compared to those without infections (MACS adjusted-HR, 1.5; 95%CI, 1.3-1.7; p<0.001; WIHS adjusted-HR, 1.9; 95%CI, 1.5-2.4; p<0.001). Conclusion: HIV infection remained a significant risk for infectious respiratory diseases after the introduction of HAART, and infectious respiratory diseases were associated with an increased risk of mortality. © 2013 Gingo et al