Emergent global patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic general ecosystem model

Anthropogenic activities are causing widespread degradation of ecosystems worldwide, threatening the ecosystem services upon which all human life depends. Improved understanding of this degradation is urgently needed to improve avoidance and mitigation measures. One tool to assist these efforts is predictive models of ecosystem structure and function that are mechanistic: based on fundamental ecological principles. Here we present the first mechanistic General Ecosystem Model (GEM) of ecosystem structure and function that is both global and applies in all terrestrial and marine environments. Functional forms and parameter values were derived from the theoretical and empirical literature where possible. Simulations of the fate of all organisms with body masses between 10 µg and 150,000 kg (a range of 14 orders of magnitude) across the globe led to emergent properties at individual (e.g., growth rate), community (e.g., biomass turnover rates), ecosystem (e.g., trophic pyramids), and macroecological scales (e.g., global patterns of trophic structure) that are in general agreement with current data and theory. These properties emerged from our encoding of the biology of, and interactions among, individual organisms without any direct constraints on the properties themselves. Our results indicate that ecologists have gathered sufficient information to begin to build realistic, global, and mechanistic models of ecosystems, capable of predicting a diverse range of ecosystem properties and their response to human pressures

Feasibility of trial procedures for a randomised controlled trial of a community based group exercise intervention for falls prevention for visually impaired older people: the VIOLET study

Background Visually impaired older people (VIOP) have a higher risk of falling than their sighted peers, and are likely to avoid physical activity. The aim was to adapt the existing Falls Management Exercise (FaME) programme for VIOP, delivered in the community, and to investigate the feasibility of conducting a definitive randomised controlled trial (RCT) of this adapted intervention. Methods Two-centre randomised mixed methods pilot trial and economic evaluation of the adapted group-based FaME programme for VIOP versus usual care. A one hour exercise programme ran weekly over 12 weeks at the study sites (Newcastle and Glasgow), delivered by third sector (voluntary and community) organisations. Participants were advised to exercise at home for an additional two hours over the week. Those randomised to the usual activities group received no intervention. Outcome measures were completed at baseline, 12 and 24 weeks. The potential primary outcome was the Short Form Falls Efficacy Scale – International (SFES-I). Participants’ adherence was assessed by reviewing attendance records and self-reported compliance to the home exercises. Adherence with the course content (fidelity) by instructors was assessed by a researcher. Adverse events were collected in a weekly phone call. Results Eighteen participants, drawn from community-living VIOP were screened; 68 met the inclusion criteria; 64 participants were randomised with 33 allocated to the intervention and 31 to the usual activities arm. 94% of participants provided data at the 12 week visit and 92% at 24 weeks. Adherence was high. The intervention was found to be safe with 76% attending nine or more classes. Median time for home exercise was 50 min per week. There was little or no evidence that fear of falling, balance and falls risk, physical activity, emotional, attitudinal or quality of life outcomes differed between trial arms at follow-up. Conclusions The intervention, FaME, was implemented successfully for VIOP and all progression criteria for a main trial were met. The lack of difference between groups on fear of falling was unsurprising given it was a pilot study but there may have been other contributory factors including suboptimal exercise dose and apparent low risk of falls in participants. These issues need addressing for a future trial

Thyroid and pituitary gland development from hatching through metamorphosis of a teleost flatfish, the Atlantic halibut

Fish larval development, not least the spectacular process of flatfish metamorphosis, appears to be under complex endocrine control, many aspects of which are still not fully elucidated. In order to obtain data on the functional development of two major endocrine glands, the pituitary and the thyroid, during flatfish metamorphosis, histology, immunohistochemistry and in situ hybridization techniques were applied on larvae of the Atlantic halibut (Hippoglossus hippoglossus), a large, marine flatfish species, from hatching through metamorphosis. The material was obtained from a commercial hatchery. Larval age is defined as day-degrees (D =accumulated daily temperature from hatching). Sporadic thyroid follicles are first detected in larvae at 142 D (27 days post-hatch), prior to the completion of yolk sack absorption. Both the number and activity of the follicles increase markedly after yolk sack absorption and continue to do so during subsequent development. The larval triiodothyronine (T3) and thyroxine (T4) content increases, subsequent to yolk absorption, and coincides with the proliferation of thyroid follicles. A second increase of both T3 and T4 occurs around the start of metamorphosis and the T3 content further increases at the metamorphic climax. Overall, the T3 content is lower than T4. The pituitary gland can first be distinguished as a separate organ at the yolk sack stage. During subsequent development, the gland becomes more elongated and differentiates into neurohypophysis (NH), pars distalis (PD) and pars intermedia (PI). The first sporadic endocrine pituitary cells are observed at the yolk sack stage, somatotrophs (growth hormone producing cells) and somatolactotrophs (somatolactin producing cells) are first observed at 121 D (23 days post-hatch), and lactotrophs (prolactin producing cells) at 134 D (25 days post-hatch). Scarce thyrotrophs are evident after detection of the first thyroid follicles (142 D ), but coincident with a phase in which follicle number and activity increase (260 D ). The somatotrophs are clustered in the medium ventral region of the PD, lactotrophs in the anterior part of the PD and somatolactotrophs are scattered in the mid and posterior region of the pituitary. At around 600 D , coinciding with the start of metamorphosis, somatolactotrophs are restricted to the interdigitating tissue of the NH. During larval development, the pituitary endocrine cells become more numerous. The present data on thyroid development support the notion that thyroid hormones may play a significant role in Atlantic halibut metamorphosis. The time of appearance and the subsequent proliferation of pituitary somatotrophs, lactotrophs, somatolactotrophs and thyrotrophs indicate at which stages of larval development and metamorphosis these endocrine cells may start to play active regulatory roles.This work has been carried out within the projects ‘‘Endocrine Control as a Determinant of Larval Quality in Fish Aquaculture’’ (CT-96-1422) and ‘‘Arrested development: The Molecular and Endocrine Basis of Flatfish Metamorphosis’’ (Q5RS-2002-01192), with financial support from the Commission of the European Communities. However, it does not necessarily reflect the Commission’s views and in no way anticipates its future policy in this area. This project was further supported by the Swedish Council for Agricultural and Forestry Research and Pluriannual funding to CCMAR by the Portuguese Science and Technology Council

A randomised controlled trial of the effects of albendazole in pregnancy on maternal responses to mycobacterial antigens and infant responses to bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) immunisation [ISRCTN32849447]

Background: Maternal schistosomiasis and filariasis have been shown to influence infant responses to neonatal bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) immunisation but the effects of maternal hookworm, and of de-worming in pregnancy, are unknown. Methods: In Entebbe, Uganda, we conducted a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of a single dose of 400 mg of albendazole in the second trimester of pregnancy. Neonates received BCG. Interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) and interleukin (IL)-5 responses to a mycobacterial antigen (crude culture filtrate proteins (CFP) of Mycobacterium tuberculosis) were measured in a whole blood assay. We analysed results for binary variables using χ2 tests and logistic regression. We analysed continuous variables using Wilcoxon's tests. Results: Maternal hookworm was associated with reduced maternal IFN-γ responses to CFP (adjusted odds ratio for IFN-γ > median response: 0.14 (95% confidence interval 0.02–0.83, p = 0.021). Conversely, maternal hookworm was associated with subsequent increased IFN-γ responses in their one-year-old infants (adjusted OR 17.65 (1.20–258.66; p = 0.013)). Maternal albendazole tended to reduce these effects. Conclusion: Untreated hookworm infection in pregnancy was associated with reduced maternal IFN-γ responses to mycobacterial antigens, but increased responses in their infants one year after BCG immunisation. The mechanisms of these effects, and their implications for protective immunity remain, to be determined. </p

Recent Walker Circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming

An unprecedented strengthening of Pacific trade winds since the late 1990s (ref. 1) has caused widespread climate perturbations, including rapid sea-level rise in the western tropical Pacific, strengthening of Indo-Pacific ocean currents, and an increased uptake of heat in the equatorial Pacific thermocline. The corresponding intensification of the atmospheric Walker circulation is also associated with sea surface cooling in the eastern Pacific, which has been identified as one of the contributors to the current pause in global surface warming. In spite of recent progress in determining the climatic impacts of the Pacific trade wind acceleration, the cause of this pronounced trend in atmospheric circulation remains unknown. Here we analyse a series of climate model experiments along with observational data to show that the recent warming trend in Atlantic sea surface temperature and the corresponding trans-basin displacements of the main atmospheric pressure centres were key drivers of the observed Walker circulation intensification, eastern Pacific cooling, North American rainfall trends and western Pacific sea-level rise. Our study suggests that global surface warming has been partly offset by the Pacific climate response to enhanced Atlantic warming since the early 1990s

An empirical model for probabilistic decadal prediction: global attribution and regional hindcasts

Empirical models, designed to predict surface variables over seasons to decades ahead, provide useful benchmarks for comparison against the performance of dynamical forecast systems; they may also be employable as predictive tools for use by climate services in their own right. A new global empirical decadal prediction system is presented, based on a multiple linear regression approach designed to produce probabilistic output for comparison against dynamical models. A global attribution is performed initially to identify the important forcing and predictor components of the model . Ensemble hindcasts of surface air temperature anomaly fields are then generated, based on the forcings and predictors identified as important, under a series of different prediction ‘modes’ and their performance is evaluated. The modes include a real-time setting, a scenario in which future volcanic forcings are prescribed during the hindcasts, and an approach which exploits knowledge of the forced trend. A two-tier prediction system, which uses knowledge of future sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, is also tested, but within a perfect knowledge framework. Each mode is designed to identify sources of predictability and uncertainty, as well as investigate different approaches to the design of decadal prediction systems for operational use. It is found that the empirical model shows skill above that of persistence hindcasts for annual means at lead times of up to 10 years ahead in all of the prediction modes investigated. It is suggested that hindcasts which exploit full knowledge of the forced trend due to increasing greenhouse gases throughout the hindcast period can provide more robust estimates of model bias for the calibration of the empirical model in an operational setting. The two-tier system shows potential for improved real-time prediction, given the assumption that skilful predictions of large-scale modes of variability are available. The empirical model framework has been designed with enough flexibility to facilitate further developments, including the prediction of other surface variables and the ability to incorporate additional predictors within the model that are shown to contribute significantly to variability at the local scale. It is also semi-operational in the sense that forecasts have been produced for the coming decade and can be updated when additional data becomes available

Detection and attribution of human influence on regional precipitation

Understanding how human influence on climate is affecting precipitation around the world is immensely important for defining mitigation policies, and for adaptation planning. Yet despite increasing evidence for the influence of climate change on global patterns of precipitation, and expectations that significant changes in regional precipitation should have already occurred as a result of human influence on climate, compelling evidence of anthropogenic fingerprints on regional precipitation is obscured by observational and modelling uncertainties and is likely to remain so using current methods for years to come. This is in spite of substantial ongoing improvements in models, new reanalyses and a satellite record that spans over thirty years. If we are to quantify how human-induced climate change is affecting the regional water cycle, we need to consider novel ways of identifying the effects of natural and anthropogenic influences on precipitation that take full advantage of our physical expectations

Predicting the seasonal evolution of southern African summer precipitation in the DePreSys3 prediction system

We assess the ability of the DePreSys3 prediction system to predict austral summer precipitation (DJF) over southern Africa, defined as the African continent south of 15°S. DePresys3 is a high resolution prediction system (at a horizontal resolution of ~ 60 km in the atmosphere in mid-latitudes and of the quarter degree in the Ocean) and spans the long period 1959–2016. We find skill in predicting interannual precipitation variability, relative to a long-term trend; the anomaly correlation skill score over southern Africa is greater than 0.45 for the first summer (i.e. lead month 2–4), and 0.37 over Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Zambia for the second summer (i.e. lead month 14–16). The skill is related to the successful prediction of the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the successful simulation of ENSO teleconnections to southern Africa. However, overall skill is sensitive to the inclusion of strong La-Nina events and also appears to change with forecast epoch. For example, the skill in predicting precipitation over Mozambique is significantly larger for the first summer in the 1990–2016 period, compared to the 1959–1985 period. The difference in skill in predicting interannual precipitation variability over southern Africa in different epochs is consistent with a change in the strength of the observed teleconnections of ENSO. After 1990, and consistent with the increased skill, the observed impact of ENSO appears to strengthen over west Mozambique, in association with changes in ENSO related atmospheric convergence anomalies. However, these apparent changes in teleconnections are not captured by the ensemble-mean predictions using DePreSys3. The changes in the ENSO teleconnection are consistent with a warming over the Indian Ocean and modulation of ENSO properties between the different epochs, but may also be associated with unpredictable atmospheric variability

Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics

Dynamical processes in the atmosphere and ocean are central to determining the large-scale drivers of regional climate change, yet their predictive understanding is poor. Here, we identify three frontline challenges in climate dynamics where significant progress can be made to inform adaptation: response of storms, blocks and jet streams to external forcing; basin-to-basin and tropical–extratropical teleconnections; and the development of non-linear predictive theory. We highlight opportunities and techniques for making immediate progress in these areas, which critically involve the development of high-resolution coupled model simulations, partial coupling or pacemaker experiments, as well as the development and use of dynamical metrics and exploitation of hierarchies of models