A Comparison and Evaluation of Performances among Crop Yield Forecasting Models Based on Remote Sensing: Results from Tte Geoland Observatory of Food Monitoring

In the context of the GEOLAND EC FP6 project the comparison of different remote sensing based approaches for yield forecasting over large areas in Europe are tested and results inter-compared. In particular the methods tested include the ones in use within the MARS-Crop Yield Forecasting System as the results from the Crop Growth Monitoring System model and vegetation indicators derived from Low Resolution SPOT-VGT and NOAA Images, METEOSAT based yield forecasting and ERS-Scatterometer Crop Performance Index. Performances of the different models were tested in Spain, Belgium and Poland. The inter-comparisons of the crop yield forecasts were mainly based on the forecasting error obtained from the different approaches based on the Root Mean Square Forecast Error (RMSFE). This error was derived by comparing the predicted yields of the different models with the official yield as from official statistics (EUROSTAT). The comparison of the RMSFE was used to verify the convergence of results from the different models, the reliability of the information, i.e. precision and bias, and its precocity compared to the crop cycle. The results showed that the indicators are able to give reliable information with some differences: remote sensing indicators are more precise and accurate in southern areas (less cloud cover) while in northern areas good results are obtained under the use of better local calibrations of traditional crop yield forecasting systems and/or the use of additional information for instance remote sensing data as inputs into advanced crop modelling systems. Furthermore, in order to take care of the different time series length available, a qualitative indicator called Performance Score (Ps) was introduced. The analysis of the Ps showed that when a long time series of observation is available greater advantages are obtained from RS rather than from more advanced crop models.JRC.DDG.H.4-Monitoring agricultural resource

CGMS Version 9.2 - User Manual and Technical Documentation

Detailed information on the installation and use of the new CGMS version 9.2JRC.G.3-Monitoring agricultural resource

The Use of Remote Sensing Within the Mars Crop Yield Monitoring System of the European Commission

The objective of the Mars Crop Yield Forecasting Systems is to provide precise, scientific, traceable independent and timely forecasts for the main crops yields at EU level. The forecasts and analysis are used since 2001 as a benchmark by analysts from DG – Agriculture and Rural Development in charge of food balance estimates. The system is supported by the use of Remote Sensing data, namely SPOT-VEGETATION, NOAA-AVHRR, MSG-SEVIRI, MODIS TERRA / ACQUA and in the future ENVISAT MERIS too. So a broad spectrum from low to medium resolution data at pan-European level is covered and historical time series go back to 1987 for NOAA and 1998 for SPOT VEGETATION. In order to work with the data operationally, processing chains have been set-up to make the data consistent with our requirements concerning near real time delivery (3 days), spatial coverage (pan-Europe), projection and ten day time steps. Moreover tailored indicators like NDVI, SAVI, DMP and fAPAR are derived. The data is explored at full resolution or unmixed related to landcover types and aggregated at administrative NUTS 2 level (profile analysis of time series). Special tools to inspect and distribute the data to external users have been developed as well.JRC.DG.G.3 - Monitoring agricultural resource

A comparison and evaluation of performances among crop yield forecasting models based on remote sensing: Results from the GEOLAND Observatory of Food Monitoring

In the context of the GEOLAND EC FP6 project the comparison of different remote sensing based approaches for yield forecasting over large areas in Europe are tested and results inter-compared. In particular the methods tested include the ones in use within the MARS-Crop Yield Forecasting System as the results from a Crop Growth Monitoring model (Alterra) and vegetation indicators derived from Low Resolution VGT and NOAA Images (VITO, IGiK), METEOSAT based yield forecasting (EARS) and ERS-Scatterometer Crop Performance Index (TPF and NEO). Performances of the different models were tested in Spain, Belgium and Poland. The inter-comparison of the crop yield forecasts were mainly based on the forecasting error obtained from the different approaches based on the Root Mean Square Forecast Error (RMSFE). This error was derived by comparing the predicted yields of the different models with the official yield from EUROSTAT. The comparison of the RMSFE was used to verify the convergence of results from the different models, the reliability of the information, i.e. precision and bias, and its precocity compared to the crop cycle. The results showed that the indicators are able to give reliable information with some differences: remote sensing indicators are more precise and accurate in southern areas (less cloud cover) while in northern areas good results are obtained under the use of better local calibrations of traditional crop yield forecasting systems, the use of additional information or the additional use of remote sensing data as inputs into advanced crop modelling systems. Furthermore, in order to take care of the different time series length available, a qualitative indicator called Performance Score (Ps) was introduced. The analysis of the Ps showed that when a long time series of observation is available greater advantages are obtained from RS rather than from more advanced crop models.JRC.DG.G.3-Monitoring agricultural resource

Extraction of phenological parameters from temporally smothed vegetation indices

Within the MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (MCYFS; Royer and Genovese, 2004) of the European Commission vegetation indicators like NDVI, SAVI and fAPAR are operationally derived for daily, decadal and monthly time steps. Besides low resolution sensors as SPOT-VGT and NOAA-AVHRR, medium resolution data from TERRA/AQUA-MODIS or ENVISAT-MERIS are used at pan-European level. In case of available time-series, esp. NOAA AVHRR (since 1981) and SPOT-VGT (since 1998) difference values of the indicators (e.g. relative or absolute differences) and frequency analysis of the indicators (e.g. position in historical range or distribution) are calculated. The exploitation of the data is performed at full resolution, at grid level of the MCYFS or regional unmixed means (C-indicators) are used. Therefore a database has been set-up in order to provide the indicators based on a weighted average for each CORINE land cover class within an area of interest. The study aims to develop a strategy for an optimal use of the different sensors and thus derived indicators at different aggregation levels for the ingestion into the MCYFS. As a first step smoothing algorithms have to be applied to the time series to diminish noise effects. Therefore, existing methods as simple sliding windows, piecewise linear regression or fitting of polynomial functions are employed and compared. Thereafter the time-series analysis is performed with the aim to establish relationships between indicators profile features and the crop phenology.JRC.DDG.H.4-Monitoring agricultural resource

Scenar 2030 - Pathways for the European agriculture and food sector beyond 2020 (Summary report)

Scenar 2030 aims at identifying major future trends and driving factors for European agriculture and rural regions and the perspectives and challenges resulting from them. The use of a suite of economic simulation models allows for the construction of a well-founded and plausible reference scenario (baseline) and different policy scenarios resulting in a comprehensive set of outcomes depicting economic, social and environmental indicators.JRC.D.4-Economics of Agricultur

Impacts of Europe's Changing Climate - 2008 Indicator Based Assessment

Background and objective This report is an update and extension of the 2004 EEA report 'Impacts of Europe's changing climate'. Since 2004, there has been much progress in monitoring and assessing the impacts of climate change in Europe. The objectives of this report are to present this new information on past and projected climate change and its impacts through indicators, to identify the sectors and regions most vulnerable to climate change with a need for adaptation, and to highlight the need to enhance monitoring and reduce uncertainties in climate and impact modelling. To reflect the broadening of coverage of indicators and make use of the best available expertise, the report has been developed jointly by EEA, JRC and WHO Regional Office for Europe. Global developments in science and policy The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its 4th Assessment report reconfirmed and strengthened earlier scientific findings about key aspects of climate change. Increased monitoring and research efforts have enhanced understanding of climate change impacts and vulnerability. At the 2007 Bali climate change conference, the urgency of responding effectively to climate change through both adaptation and mitigation activities was recognised by a larger number of countries than ever before. The EU has proposed a target of a maximum global temperature increase of 2 °C above the pre-industrial level. A post-Kyoto regime that would include both adaptation and mitigation is expected to be agreed by end of 2009. There has been progress in implementing the Nairobi work programme on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, developed to help countries improve their understanding of climate change impacts. European developments in science and policy European research on impacts and vulnerability in the context of national programmes and the 5th and 6th Framework Programmes has advanced considerably, making a major contribution to international assessments such as those of the IPCC, the Arctic Impact Assessment, the UNEP Global Outlook for Ice and Snow and WHO reports. New research programmes focusing on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation are currently being developed in many member countries and in the context of the 7th Framework Programme. On the policy side, the European Commission published its Green Paper on adaptation in 2007, to be followed by a White Paper by the end of 2008 with concrete proposals for action. This report The main part of this report summarises the relevance, past trends and future projections for about 40 indicators (from 22 in the 2004 report). The indicators address atmosphere and climate, the cryosphere, marine systems, terrestrial systems and biodiversity, agriculture and forestry, soil, water quantity (including floods and droughts), water quality and fresh water ecology, and human health. After a brief introduction, several chapters deal in a general way with the changes in the climate system and the observed and projected impacts. The report ends with chapters on adaptation and the economics of climate change impacts and adaptation strategies and policies, and data availability and uncertainty.JRC.H.7-Land management and natural hazard

Electrical stimulation of non-classical photon emission from diamond color centers by means of sub-superficial graphitic electrodes

Focused MeV ion beams with micrometric resolution are suitable tools for the direct writing of conductive graphitic channels buried in an insulating diamond bulk, as already demonstrated for different device applications. In this work we apply this fabrication method to the electrical excitation of color centers in diamond, demonstrating the potential of electrical stimulation in diamond-based single-photon sources. Differently from optically-stimulated light emission from color centers in diamond, electroluminescence (EL) requires a high current flowing in the diamond subgap states between the electrodes. With this purpose, buried graphitic electrode pairs, 10 μm spaced, were fabricated in the bulk of a single-crystal diamond sample using a 6 MeV C microbeam. The electrical characterization of the structure showed a significant current injection above an effective voltage threshold of 150 V, which enabled the stimulation of a stable EL emission. The EL imaging allowed to identify the electroluminescent regions and the residual vacancy distribution associated with the fabrication technique. Measurements evidenced isolated electroluminescent spots where non-classical light emission in the 560-700 nm spectral range was observed. The spectral and auto-correlation features of the EL emission were investigated to qualify the non-classical properties of the color centers