Global Continua of Positive Equilibria for some Quasilinear Parabolic Equation with a Nonlocal Initial Condition

This paper is concerned with a quaslinear parabolic equation including a nonlinear nonlocal initial condition. The problem arises as equilibrium equation in population dynamics with nonlinear diffusion. We make use of global bifurcation theory to prove existence of an unbounded continuum of positive solutions

An affordable, quality-assured community-based system for high-resolution entomological surveillance of vector mosquitoes that reflects human malaria infection risk patterns.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: More sensitive and scalable entomological surveillance tools are required to monitor low levels of transmission that are increasingly common across the tropics, particularly where vector control has been successful. A large-scale larviciding programme in urban Dar es Salaam, Tanzania is supported by a community-based (CB) system for trapping adult mosquito densities to monitor programme performance. Methodology An intensive and extensive CB system for routine, longitudinal, programmatic surveillance of malaria vectors and other mosquitoes using the Ifakara Tent Trap (ITT-C) was developed in Urban Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and validated by comparison with quality assurance (QA) surveys using either ITT-C or human landing catches (HLC), as well as a cross-sectional survey of malaria parasite prevalence in the same housing compounds. RESULTS: Community-based ITT-C had much lower sensitivity per person-night of sampling than HLC (Relative Rate (RR) [95% Confidence Interval (CI)] = 0.079 [0.051, 0.121], P < 0.001 for Anopheles gambiae s.l. and 0.153 [0.137, 0.171], P < 0.001 for Culicines) but only moderately differed from QA surveys with the same trap (0.536 [0.406,0.617], P = 0.001 and 0.747 [0.677,0.824], P < 0.001, for An. gambiae or Culex respectively). Despite the poor sensitivity of the ITT per night of sampling, when CB-ITT was compared with QA-HLC, it proved at least comparably sensitive in absolute terms (171 versus 169 primary vectors caught) and cost-effective (153US$versus 187US$ per An. gambiae caught) because it allowed more spatially extensive and temporally intensive sampling (4284 versus 335 trap nights distributed over 615 versus 240 locations with a mean number of samples per year of 143 versus 141). Despite the very low vectors densities (Annual estimate of about 170 An gambiae s.l bites per person per year), CB-ITT was the only entomological predictor of parasite infection risk (Odds Ratio [95% CI] = 4.43[3.027,7. 454] per An. gambiae or Anopheles funestus caught per night, P =0.0373). Discussion and conclusion CB trapping approaches could be improved with more sensitive traps, but already offer a practical, safe and affordable system for routine programmatic mosquito surveillance and clusters could be distributed across entire countries by adapting the sample submission and quality assurance procedures accordingly

The central image of a gravitationally lensed quasar

A galaxy can act as a gravitational lens, producing multiple images of a background object. Theory predicts there should be an odd number of images but, paradoxically, almost all observed lenses have 2 or 4 images. The missing image should be faint and appear near the galaxy's center. These ``central images'' have long been sought as probes of galactic cores too distant to resolve with ordinary observations. There are five candidates, but in one case the third image is not necessarily a central image, and in the others, the central component might be a foreground source rather than a lensed image. Here we report the most secure identification of a central image, based on radio observations of PMN J1632-0033, one of the latter candidates. Lens models incorporating the central image show that the mass of the lens galaxy's central black hole is less than 2 x 10^8 M_sun, and the galaxy's surface density at the location of the central image is more than 20,000 M_sun per square parsec, in agreement with expectations based on observations of galaxies hundreds of times closer to the Earth.Comment: Nature, in press [7 pp, 2 figs]. Standard media embargo applies before publicatio

An Extended Model for the Evolution of Prebiotic Homochirality: A Bottom-Up Approach to the Origin of Life

A generalized autocatalytic model for chiral polymerization is investigated in detail. Apart from enantiomeric cross-inhibition, the model allows for the autogenic (non-catalytic) formation of left and right-handed monomers from a substrate with reaction rates $\epsilon_L$ and $\epsilon_R$, respectively. The spatiotemporal evolution of the net chiral asymmetry is studied for models with several values of the maximum polymer length, N. For N=2, we study the validity of the adiabatic approximation often cited in the literature. We show that the approximation obtains the correct equilibrium values of the net chirality, but fails to reproduce the short time behavior. We show also that the autogenic term in the full N=2 model behaves as a control parameter in a chiral symmetry- breaking phase transition leading to full homochirality from racemic initial conditions. We study the dynamics of the N -> infinity model with symmetric ($\epsilon_L = \epsilon_R$) autogenic formation, showing that it only achieves homochirality for $\epsilon < \epsilon_c$, where $\epsilon_c$ is an N-dependent critical value. For $\epsilon \leq \epsilon_c$ we investigate the behavior of models with several values of N, showing that the net chiral asymmetry grows as tanh(N). We show that for a given symmetric autogenic reaction rate, the net chirality and the concentrations of chirally pure polymers increase with the maximum polymer length in the model. We briefly discuss the consequences of our results for the development of homochirality in prebiotic Earth and possible experimental verification of our findings

Impact of Community-Based Larviciding on the Prevalence of Malaria Infection in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

The use of larval source management is not prioritized by contemporary malaria control programs in sub-Saharan Africa despite historical success. Larviciding, in particular, could be effective in urban areas where transmission is focal and accessibility to Anopheles breeding habitats is generally easier than in rural settings. The objective of this study is to assess the effectiveness of a community-based microbial larviciding intervention to reduce the prevalence of malaria infection in Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania. Larviciding was implemented in 3 out of 15 targeted wards of Dar es Salaam in 2006 after two years of baseline data collection. This intervention was subsequently scaled up to 9 wards a year later, and to all 15 targeted wards in 2008. Continuous randomized cluster sampling of malaria prevalence and socio-demographic characteristics was carried out during 6 survey rounds (2004-2008), which included both cross-sectional and longitudinal data (N = 64,537). Bayesian random effects logistic regression models were used to quantify the effect of the intervention on malaria prevalence at the individual level. Effect size estimates suggest a significant protective effect of the larviciding intervention. After adjustment for confounders, the odds of individuals living in areas treated with larviciding being infected with malaria were 21% lower (Odds Ratio = 0.79; 95% Credible Intervals: 0.66-0.93) than those who lived in areas not treated. The larviciding intervention was most effective during dry seasons and had synergistic effects with other protective measures such as use of insecticide-treated bed nets and house proofing (i.e., complete ceiling or window screens). A large-scale community-based larviciding intervention significantly reduced the prevalence of malaria infection in urban Dar es Salaam

An eclipsing binary distance to the Large Magellanic Cloud accurate to 2 per cent

In the era of precision cosmology it is essential to determine the Hubble Constant with an accuracy of 3% or better. Currently, its uncertainty is dominated by the uncertainty in the distance to the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) which as the second nearest galaxy serves as the best anchor point of the cosmic distance scale. Observations of eclipsing binaries offer a unique opportunity to precisely and accurately measure stellar parameters and distances. The eclipsing binary method was previously applied to the LMC but the accuracy of the distance results was hampered by the need to model the bright, early-type systems used in these studies. Here, we present distance determinations to eight long-period, late- type eclipsing systems in the LMC composed of cool giant stars. For such systems we can accurately measure both the linear and angular sizes of their components and avoid the most important problems related to the hot early-type systems. Our LMC distance derived from these systems is demonstrably accurate to 2.2 % (49.97 +/- 0.19 (statistical) +/- 1.11 (systematic) kpc) providing a firm base for a 3 % determination of the Hubble Constant, with prospects for improvement to 2 % in the future.Comment: 34 pages, 5 figures, 13 tables, published in the Nature, a part of our data comes from new unpublished OGLE-IV photometric dat

Efficient importance sampling in low dimensions using affine arithmetic

Despite the development of sophisticated techniques such as sequential Monte Carlo, importance sampling (IS) remains an important Monte Carlo method for low dimensional target distributions. This paper describes a new technique for constructing proposal distributions for IS, using affine arithmetic. This work builds on the Moore rejection sampler to which we provide a comparison

Fluids in cosmology

We review the role of fluids in cosmology by first introducing them in General Relativity and then by applying them to a FRW Universe's model. We describe how relativistic and non-relativistic components evolve in the background dynamics. We also introduce scalar fields to show that they are able to yield an inflationary dynamics at very early times (inflation) and late times (quintessence). Then, we proceed to study the thermodynamical properties of the fluids and, lastly, its perturbed kinematics. We make emphasis in the constrictions of parameters by recent cosmological probes.Comment: 34 pages, 4 figures, version accepted as invited review to the book "Computational and Experimental Fluid Mechanics with Applications to Physics, Engineering and the Environment". Version 2: typos corrected and references expande

The 10th Biennial Hatter Cardiovascular Institute workshop: cellular protection—evaluating new directions in the setting of myocardial infarction, ischaemic stroke, and cardio-oncology

Due to its poor capacity for regeneration, the heart is particularly sensitive to the loss of contractile cardiomyocytes. The onslaught of damage caused by ischaemia and reperfusion, occurring during an acute myocardial infarction and the subsequent reperfusion therapy, can wipe out upwards of a billion cardiomyocytes. A similar program of cell death can cause the irreversible loss of neurons in ischaemic stroke. Similar pathways of lethal cell injury can contribute to other pathologies such as left ventricular dysfunction and heart failure caused by cancer therapy. Consequently, strategies designed to protect the heart from lethal cell injury have the potential to be applicable across all three pathologies. The investigators meeting at the 10th Hatter Cardiovascular Institute workshop examined the parallels between ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), ischaemic stroke, and other pathologies that cause the loss of cardiomyocytes including cancer therapeutic cardiotoxicity. They examined the prospects for protection by remote ischaemic conditioning (RIC) in each scenario, and evaluated impasses and novel opportunities for cellular protection, with the future landscape for RIC in the clinical setting to be determined by the outcome of the large ERIC-PPCI/CONDI2 study. It was agreed that the way forward must include measures to improve experimental methodologies, such that they better reflect the clinical scenario and to judiciously select combinations of therapies targeting specific pathways of cellular death and injury

Detection, prevalence, and transmission of avian hematozoa in waterfowl at the Arctic/sub-Arctic interface: co-infections, viral interactions, and sources of variation

Background The epidemiology of avian hematozoa at high latitudes is still not well understood, particularly in sub-Arctic and Arctic habitats, where information is limited regarding seasonality and range of transmission, co-infection dynamics with parasitic and viral agents, and possible fitness consequences of infection. Such information is important as climate warming may lead to northward expansion of hematozoa with unknown consequences to northern-breeding avian taxa, particularly populations that may be previously unexposed to blood parasites. Methods We used molecular methods to screen blood samples and cloacal/oropharyngeal swabs collected from 1347 ducks of five species during May-August 2010, in interior Alaska, for the presence of hematozoa, Influenza A Virus (IAV), and IAV antibodies. Using models to account for imperfect detection of parasites, we estimated seasonal variation in prevalence of three parasite genera (Haemoproteus, Plasmodium, Leucocytozoon) and investigated how co-infection with parasites and viruses were related to the probability of infection. Results We detected parasites from each hematozoan genus in adult and juvenile ducks of all species sampled. Seasonal patterns in detection and prevalence varied by parasite genus and species, age, and sex of duck hosts. The probabilities of infection for Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon parasites were strongly positively correlated, but hematozoa infection was not correlated with IAV infection or serostatus. The probability of Haemoproteus infection was negatively related to body condition in juvenile ducks; relationships between Leucocytozoon infection and body condition varied among host species. Conclusions We present prevalence estimates for Haemoproteus, Leucocytozoon, and Plasmodium infections in waterfowl at the interface of the sub-Arctic and Arctic and provide evidence for local transmission of all three parasite genera. Variation in prevalence and molecular detection of hematozoa parasites in wild ducks is influenced by seasonal timing and a number of host traits. A positive correlation in co-infection of Leucocytozoon and Haemoproteus suggests that infection probability by parasites in one or both genera is enhanced by infection with the other, or that encounter rates of hosts and genus-specific vectors are correlated. Using size-adjusted mass as an index of host condition, we did not find evidence for strong deleterious consequences of hematozoa infection in wild ducks.Geological Survey (U.S.) (Wildlife Program of the Ecosystem Mission Area)U.S. Fish and Wildlife ServiceDelta Waterfowl FoundationInstitute for Wetland and Waterfowl ResearchIcahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai (Center for Research on Influenza Pathogenesis)Center of Excellence for Influenza Research and Surveillance (contracts HHSN272201400008C and HHSN266200700010C