Natural History of Tuberculosis: Duration and Fatality of Untreated Pulmonary Tuberculosis in HIV Negative Patients: A Systematic Review

Background The prognosis, specifically the case fatality and duration, of untreated tuberculosis is important as many patients are not correctly diagnosed and therefore receive inadequate or no treatment. Furthermore, duration and case fatality of tuberculosis are key parameters in interpreting epidemiological data. Methodology and Principal Findings To estimate the duration and case fatality of untreated pulmonary tuberculosis in HIV negative patients we reviewed studies from the pre-chemotherapy era. Untreated smear-positive tuberculosis among HIV negative individuals has a 10-year case fatality variously reported between 53% and 86%, with a weighted mean of 70%. Ten-year case fatality of culture-positive smear-negative tuberculosis was nowhere reported directly but can be indirectly estimated to be approximately 20%. The duration of tuberculosis from onset to cure or death is approximately 3 years and appears to be similar for smear-positive and smear-negative tuberculosis. Conclusions Current models of untreated tuberculosis that assume a total duration of 2 years until self-cure or death underestimate the duration of disease by about one year, but their case fatality estimates of 70% for smear-positive and 20% for culture-positive smear-negative tuberculosis appear to be satisfactory

Mental Representations of Weekdays

Keeping social appointments involves keeping track of what day it is. In practice, mismatches between apparent day and actual day are common. For example, a person might think the current day is Wednesday when in fact it is Thursday. Here we show that such mismatches are highly systematic, and can be traced to specific properties of their mental representations. In Study 1, mismatches between apparent day and actual day occurred more frequently on midweek days (Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday) than on other days, and were mainly due to intrusions from immediately neighboring days. In Study 2, reaction times to report the current day were fastest on Monday and Friday, and slowest midweek. In Study 3, participants generated fewer semantic associations for "Tuesday", "Wednesday" and "Thursday" than for other weekday names. Similarly, Google searches found fewer occurrences of midweek days in webpages and books. Analysis of affective norms revealed that participants' associations were strongly negative for Monday, strongly positive for Friday, and graded over the intervening days. Midweek days are confusable because their mental representations are sparse and similar. Mondays and Fridays are less confusable because their mental representations are rich and distinctive, forming two extremes along a continuum of change

Mood and the Market: Can Press Reports of Investors’ Mood Predict Stock Prices?

We examined whether press reports on the collective mood of investors can predict changes in stock prices. We collected data on the use of emotion words in newspaper reports on traders’ affect, coded these emotion words according to their location on an affective circumplex in terms of pleasantness and activation level, and created indices of collective mood for each trading day. Then, by using time series analyses, we examined whether these mood indices, depicting investors’ emotion on a given trading day, could predict the next day’s opening price of the stock market. The strongest findings showed that activated pleasant mood predicted increases in NASDAQ prices, while activated unpleasant mood predicted decreases in NASDAQ prices. We conclude that both valence and activation levels of collective mood are important in predicting trend continuation in stock prices

Combine or Separate Future Pain? The Impact of Current Pain on Decisions about Future Dental Treatments

Patients are often given the option of undergoing future painful treatments in one or multiple sessions (e.g., extracting two wisdom teeth on one or two different days). In a randomized controlled field experiment, we investigated the impact of transient pain on patients’ decision to combine or separate future periodontal treatments. The main results show that most patients preferred to have the future treatments take place in one session when they made their choice after a painless examination (i.e., general clinical exam). However, the patients’ preference for combining the future treatments did not differ from chance when the choice was made immediately following a painful examination (i.e., pocketing and bleeding on probing exam). The impact of pain on decision making is observed within and between participants. Current pain seems to lead patients to question their ability to endure future painful treatments in one session

Are bans on political parties bound to turn out badly? A comparative investigation of three 'intolerant' democracies: Turkey, Spain, and Belgium

The banning of particular political parties in democratic states is commonly opposed not just on philosophical grounds but also with the practical argument that bans will prove pointless, counterproductive or endanger hard-won achievements. This paper questions that common wisdom — summed up in Hirschman's perversity, futility and jeopardy theses. It conducts a comparative empirical investigation of the consequences of recent bans on 'extremist' parties in three self-styled European democracies — Turkey, Spain and Belgium. It finds that those consequences were not as dire as predicted. This suggests that banning such parties, while by no means always the only or the right thing to do, is not necessarily a mistake, at least on practical rather than normative grounds