Understanding the Economic Consequences of Shifting Trends in Population Health

The public economic burden of shifting trends in population health remains uncertain. Sustained increases in obesity, diabetes, and other diseases could reduce life expectancy – with a concomitant decrease in the public-sector’s annuity burden – but these savings may be offset by worsening functional status, which increases health care spending, reduces labor supply, and increases public assistance. Using a microsimulation approach, we quantify the competing public-finance consequences of shifting trends in population health for medical care costs, labor supply, earnings, wealth, tax revenues, and government expenditures (including Social Security and income assistance). Together, the reduction in smoking and the rise in obesity have increased net public-sector liabilities by $430bn, or approximately 4% of the current debt burden. Larger effects are observed for specific public programs: annual spending is 10% higher in the Medicaid program, and 7% higher for Medicare.disability, health care costs, social security, microsimulation

International Differences in Longevity and Health and Their Economic Consequences

In 1975, 50 year-old Americans could expect to live slightly longer than their European counterparts. By 2005, American life expectancy at that age has diverged substantially compared to Europe. We find that this growing longevity gap is primarily the symptom of real declines in the health of near-elderly Americans, relative to their European peers. In particular, we use a microsimulation approach to project what US longevity would look like, if US health trends approximated those in Europe. We find that differences in health can explain most of the growing gap in remaining life expectancy. In addition, we quantify the public finance consequences of this deterioration in health. The model predicts that gradually moving American cohorts to the health status enjoyed by Europeans could save up to $1.1 trillion in discounted total health expenditures from 2004 to 2050.disability, mortality, international comparisons, microsimulation

International Differences in Longevity and Health and their Economic Consequences

In 1975, 50 year-old Americans could expect to live slightly longer than their European counterparts. By 2005, American life expectancy at that age has diverged substantially compared to Europe. We find that this growing longevity gap is primarily the symptom of real declines in the health of near-elderly Americans, relative to their European peers. In particular, we use a microsimulation approach to project what US longevity would look like, if US health trends approximated those in Europe. We find that differences in health can explain most of the growing gap in remaining life expectancy. In addition, we quantify the public finance consequences of this deterioration in health. The model predicts that gradually moving American cohorts to the health status enjoyed by Europeans could save up to $1.1 trillion in discounted total health expenditures from 2004 to 2050.disability, mortality, international comparisons, microsimulation

Titanium alloy stress corrosion cracking in presence of dinitrogen tetroxide

Study resulting in a satisfactory stress corrosion cracking test with extremely consistent results produced six new analytical methods. Methods detect and determine differences in the minor constituent composition of different types of dinitrogen tetroxide

Monitoring and impact mitigation during a 4D seismic survey near a population of gray whales off Sakhalin Island, Russia

A 4D seismic survey was conducted in 2010 near the feeding grounds of gray whales off Sakhalin Island, Russia. To minimize disruptions to the whales’ feeding activity and enhance understanding of the potential impacts of seismic surveys on gray whales Eschrichtius robustus, an extensive monitoring and mitigation plan (MMP) was developed. Typically, mitigation plans involve observers on seismic vessels to monitor for the presence of marine mammals in an exclusion zone so as to prevent physical injury to the animals. Due to the protected status of western gray whales, an additional protection zone based on a behavioural disturbance threshold of exposure of 156 dB re μPa2-s per pulse was applied for whales within their feeding habitat defined by the estimated 95% abundance contour. Real-time radio-transmitting acoustic recorders were deployed along this contour to verify modelled acoustic footprints within the feeding grounds. Shore- and vessel-based observation teams monitored for the presence and activity of whales. A real-time GIS workflow tracking procedure was developed that integrated acoustic and whale positioning data to determine if sound levels at a whales’ position within the feeding area exceeded the behavioural threshold, in which case a shut-down of the seismic source was implemented. Additionally, behaviour and distribution surveys were conducted before, during and after the seismic survey to evaluate the effectiveness of the MMP. No large changes in whale movement, respiration, or distribution patterns were observed during the seismic survey. This could be interpreted to mean that the MMP was effective in reducing the sound exposure and behavioural responses of gray whales to seismic sounds. KEY WORDS: Seismic · Mitigation · Western gray whale · Eschrichtius robustus · Sakhalin · Piltun · Sea of Okhotsk · Anthropogenic disturbanc

Understanding the Economic Consequences of Shifting Trends in Population Health

The public economic burden of shifting trends in population health remains uncertain. Sustained increases in obesity, diabetes, and other diseases could reduce life expectancy − with a concomitant decrease in the public-sector's annuity burden − but these savings may be offset by worsening functional status, which increases health care spending, reduces labor supply, and increases public assistance. Using a microsimulation approach, we quantify the competing public-finance consequences of shifting trends in population health for medical care costs, labor supply, earnings, wealth, tax revenues, and government expenditures (including Social Security and income assistance). Together, the reduction in smoking and the rise in obesity have increased net public-sector liabilities by $430bn, or approximately 4% of the current debt burden. Larger effects are observed for specific public programs: annual spending is 10% higher in the Medicaid program, and 7% higher for Medicare.disability, health care costs, social security, microsimulation

Understanding the economic consequences of shifting trends in population health

The public economic burden of shifting trends in population health remains uncertain. Sustained increases in obesity, diabetes, and other diseases could reduce life expectancy - with a concomitant decrease in the public-sector's annuity burden - but these savings may be offset by worsening functional status, which increases health care spending, reduces labor supply, and increases public assistance. Using a microsimulation approach, we quantify the competing public-finance consequences of shifting trends in population health for medical care costs, labor supply, earnings, wealth, tax revenues, and government expenditures (including Social Security and income assistance). Together, the reduction in smoking and the rise in obesity have increased net public-sector liabilities by $430bn, or approximately 4% of the current debt burden. Larger effects are observed for specific public programs: annual spending is 10% higher in the Medicaid program, and 7% higher for Medicare

Sampling cecal contents or ileocecal lymph nodes: is it different?

The objective of this study was to compare the prevalence of Salmonella enterica in swine populations estimated by sampling cecal contents versus ileocecal lymph nodes. In each of two abattoirs, four groups of pigs (n=30 pigs per group) were studied. Cecal contents and ileocecal lymph nodes were individually collected and processed for isolation and identification of S. enterica. The overall prevalence found by cecal contents was 40%, whereas by ileocecal lymph nodes it was 22.9% (p\u3c0.05). Combining results from both samples, the prevalence found was 50.8%. The relative sensitivity of cecal content sampling was 79.3%, whereas for ileocecal lymph node sampling it was 45.5%. The agreement (Kappa statistic) between both sample types was 13.1%. This study demonstrates that sampling either cecal contents or ileocecal lymph nodes affects results of S. enterica epidemiological studies. It is recommended that both samples be used

Organisational communication management during the Volkswagen diesel emissions scandal: A hermeneutic study in attribution, crisis management, and information orientation

The discovery in September 2015 of diesel emissions software cheat technology in Volkswagen (VW) cars initiated a process of organisational crisis management and damage limitation by VW, reflected in the contemporaneous intensive production of public information statements, including press releases, statements to shareholders and investors, and transcripts of oral evidence. Through taking stock of a selection of these public information statements, this article examines the organisational communication management strategies employed to respond to the crisis situation, making an integrated use of attribution, crisis management, and information orientation theories as an interpretive lens. An interpretivist, hermeneutic approach was used to carry out qualitative content analysis on selected statements issued by VW. The analysis reveals that there is a connection between statements relating to attribution and statements relating to information orientation, at the time of the crisis and in preparing future action. Priorities for action form part of the overall crisis management and image restoration approach. Proposed changes in information orientation constitute a key dimension of the company's public response to mitigate the offensiveness of the crisis. The analysis performed demonstrates the applicability of the proposed integration of attribution, crisis management, image restoration, and information orientation theories to better understand and explain how large corporations respond publicly to organisational crisis episodes, more specifically the ways in which attributions, crisis management, and image restoration strategies are related to aspects of information orientation as both components and consequences of the crisis