Event series prediction via non-homogeneous Poisson process modelling

Data streams whose events occur at random arrival times rather than at the regular, tick-tock intervals of traditional time series are increasingly prevalent. Event series are continuous, irregular and often highly sparse, differing greatly in nature to the regularly sampled time series traditionally the concern of hard sciences. As mass sets of such data have become more common, so interest in predicting future events in them has grown. Yet repurposing of traditional forecasting approaches has proven ineffective, in part due to issues such as sparsity, but often due to inapplicable underpinning assumptions such as stationarity and ergodicity. In this paper we derive a principled new approach to forecasting event series that avoids such assumptions, based upon: 1. the processing of event series datasets in order to produce a parameterized mixture model of non-homogeneous Poisson processes; and 2. application of a technique called parallel forecasting that uses these processes’ rate functions to directly generate accurate temporal predictions for new query realizations. This approach uses forerunners of a stochastic process to shed light on the distribution of future events, not for themselves, but for realizations that subsequently follow in their footsteps

AMP: a new time-frequency feature extraction method for intermittent time-series data

The characterisation of time-series data via their most salient features is extremely important in a range of machine learning task, not least of all with regards to classification and clustering. While there exist many feature extraction techniques suitable for non-intermittent time-series data, these approaches are not always appropriate for intermittent time-series data, where intermittency is characterized by constant values for large periods of time punctuated by sharp and transient increases or decreases in value. Motivated by this, we present aggregation, mode decomposition and projection (AMP) a feature extraction technique particularly suited to intermittent time-series data which contain time-frequency patterns. For our method all individual time-series within a set are combined to form a non-intermittent aggregate. This is decomposed into a set of components which represent the intrinsic time-frequency signals within the data set. Individual time-series can then be _t to these components to obtain a set of numerical features that represent their intrinsic time-frequency patterns. To demonstrate the effectiveness of AMP, we evaluate against the real word task of clustering intermittent time-series data. Using synthetically generated data we show that a clustering approach which uses the features derived from AMP significantly outperforms traditional clustering methods. Our technique is further exemplified on a real world data set where AMP can be used to discover groupings of individuals which correspond to real world sub-populations

Children’s and adults’ understanding of death: Cognitive, parental, and experiential influences

This study explored the development of understanding of death in a sample of 4- to 11-year-old British children and adults (N = 136). It also investigated four sets of possible influences on this development: parents’ religion and spiritual beliefs, cognitive ability, socioeconomic status, and experience of illness and death. Participants were interviewed using the “death concept” interview that explores understanding of the subcomponents of inevitability, universality, irreversibility, cessation, and causality of death. Children understood key aspects of death from as early as 4 or 5 years, and with age their explanations of inevitability, universality, and causality became increasingly biological. Understanding of irreversibility and the cessation of mental and physical processes also emerged during early childhood, but by 10 years many children’s explanations reflected not an improved biological understanding but rather the coexistence of apparently contradictory biological and supernatural ideas—religious, spiritual, or metaphysical. Evidence for these coexistent beliefs was more prevalent in older children than in younger children and was associated with their parents’ religious and spiritual beliefs. Socioeconomic status was partly related to children’s biological ideas, whereas cognitive ability and experience of illness and death played less important roles. There was no evidence for coexistent thinking among adults, only a clear distinction between biological explanations about death and supernatural explanations about the afterlife

Efficacy of daratumumab combination regimen in patients with multiple myeloma : A combined analysis of phase III randomized controlled trials

Open Access via the Jis Wiley AgreementPeer reviewedPublisher PD

The characterisation of microsatellite markers reveals tetraploidy in the Greater Water Parsnip, Sium latifolium (Apiaceae).

BACKGROUND: The Greater Water Parsnip, Sium latifolium (Apiaceae), is a marginal aquatic perennial currently endangered in England and consequently the focus of a number of conservation translocation projects. Microsatellite markers were developed for S. latifolium to facilitate comparison of genetic diversity and composition between natural and introduced populations. RESULTS: We selected 65 S. latifolium microsatellite (MiSeq) sequences and designed primer pairs for these. Primer sets were tested in 32 individuals. We found 15 polymorphic loci that amplified consistently. For the selected 15 loci, the number of alleles per locus ranged from 8 to 17. For all loci, S. latifolium individuals displayed up to four alleles indicating polyploidy in this species. CONCLUSIONS: These are the first microsatellite loci developed for S. latifolium and each individual displayed 1-4 alleles per locus, suggesting polyploidy in this species. These markers provide a valuable resource in evaluating the population genetic composition of this endangered species and thus will be useful for guiding conservation and future translocations of the species

Phenotypic Characterization of EIF2AK4 Mutation Carriers in a Large Cohort of Patients Diagnosed Clinically With Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension.

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a rare disease with an emerging genetic basis. Heterozygous mutations in the gene encoding the bone morphogenetic protein receptor type 2 (BMPR2) are the commonest genetic cause of PAH, whereas biallelic mutations in the eukaryotic translation initiation factor 2 alpha kinase 4 gene (EIF2AK4) are described in pulmonary veno-occlusive disease/pulmonary capillary hemangiomatosis. Here, we determine the frequency of these mutations and define the genotype-phenotype characteristics in a large cohort of patients diagnosed clinically with PAH. METHODS: Whole-genome sequencing was performed on DNA from patients with idiopathic and heritable PAH and with pulmonary veno-occlusive disease/pulmonary capillary hemangiomatosis recruited to the National Institute of Health Research BioResource-Rare Diseases study. Heterozygous variants in BMPR2 and biallelic EIF2AK4 variants with a minor allele frequency of <1:10 000 in control data sets and predicted to be deleterious (by combined annotation-dependent depletion, PolyPhen-2, and sorting intolerant from tolerant predictions) were identified as potentially causal. Phenotype data from the time of diagnosis were also captured. RESULTS: Eight hundred sixty-four patients with idiopathic or heritable PAH and 16 with pulmonary veno-occlusive disease/pulmonary capillary hemangiomatosis were recruited. Mutations in BMPR2 were identified in 130 patients (14.8%). Biallelic mutations in EIF2AK4 were identified in 5 patients with a clinical diagnosis of pulmonary veno-occlusive disease/pulmonary capillary hemangiomatosis. Furthermore, 9 patients with a clinical diagnosis of PAH carried biallelic EIF2AK4 mutations. These patients had a reduced transfer coefficient for carbon monoxide (Kco; 33% [interquartile range, 30%-35%] predicted) and younger age at diagnosis (29 years; interquartile range, 23-38 years) and more interlobular septal thickening and mediastinal lymphadenopathy on computed tomography of the chest compared with patients with PAH without EIF2AK4 mutations. However, radiological assessment alone could not accurately identify biallelic EIF2AK4 mutation carriers. Patients with PAH with biallelic EIF2AK4 mutations had a shorter survival. CONCLUSIONS: Biallelic EIF2AK4 mutations are found in patients classified clinically as having idiopathic and heritable PAH. These patients cannot be identified reliably by computed tomography, but a low Kco and a young age at diagnosis suggests the underlying molecular diagnosis. Genetic testing can identify these misclassified patients, allowing appropriate management and early referral for lung transplantation

Chemotactic synthetic vesicles: Design and applications in blood-brain barrier crossing

In recent years, scientists have created artificial microscopic and nanoscopic self-propelling particles, often referred to as nano- or microswimmers, capable of mimicking biological locomotion and taxis. This active diffusion enables the engineering of complex operations that so far have not been possible at the micro- and nanoscale. One of the most promising tasks is the ability to engineer nanocarriers that can autonomously navigate within tissues and organs, accessing nearly every site of the human body guided by endogenous chemical gradients. We report a fully synthetic, organic, nanoscopic system that exhibits attractive chemotaxis driven by enzymatic conversion of glucose. We achieve this by encapsulating glucose oxidase alone or in combination with catalase into nanoscopic and biocompatible asymmetric polymer vesicles (known as polymersomes). We show that these vesicles self-propel in response to an external gradient of glucose by inducing a slip velocity on their surface, which makes them move in an extremely sensitive way toward higher-concentration regions. We finally demonstrate that the chemotactic behavior of these nanoswimmers, in combination with LRP-1 (low-density lipoprotein receptor–related protein 1) targeting, enables a fourfold increase in penetration to the brain compared to nonchemotactic systems. recent years, </span

Towards a global assessment of pyrogenic carbon from vegetation fires

16 páginas.-- 4 figuras.-- 183 referencias.The production of pyrogenic carbon (PyC; a continuum of organic carbon (C) ranging from partially charred biomass and charcoal to soot) is a widely acknowledged C sink, with the latest estimates indicating that ~50% of the PyC produced by vegetation fires potentially sequesters C over centuries. Nevertheless, the quantitative importance of PyC in the global C balance remains contentious, and therefore, PyC is rarely considered in global C cycle and climate studies. Here we examine the robustness of existing evidence and identify the main research gaps in the production, fluxes and fate of PyC from vegetation fires. Much of the previous work on PyC production has focused on selected components of total PyC generated in vegetation fires, likely leading to underestimates. We suggest that global PyC production could be in the range of 116-385 Tg C yr-1, that is ~0.2-0.6% of the annual terrestrial net primary production. According to our estimations, atmospheric emissions of soot/black C might be a smaller fraction of total PyC (<2%) than previously reported. Research on the fate of PyC in the environment has mainly focused on its degradation pathways, and its accumulation and resilience either in situ (surface soils) or in ultimate sinks (marine sediments). Off-site transport, transformation and PyC storage in intermediate pools are often overlooked, which could explain the fate of a substantial fraction of the PyC mobilized annually. We propose new research directions addressing gaps in the global PyC cycle to fully understand the importance of the products of burning in global C cycle dynamics.C.S. is grateful to the Spanish Government (EX2010–0498) and to The Leverhulme Trust (Grant RPG-2014-095), J.M.R to the European Commission’s Marie-Curie Career Integration Grant (FP7-PEOPLE-2012-CIG-333784) and C.A.M. acknowledges funding from the US National Science Foundation Grant number EAR 0911685. The authors thank two anonymous reviewers, the subject editor and R. Jaffe for helpful comments and suggestions.Peer reviewe

A Highly Stable Blood Meal Alternative for Rearing \u3cem\u3eAedes\u3c/em\u3e and \u3cem\u3eAnopheles\u3c/em\u3e Mosquitoes

We investigated alternatives to whole blood for blood feeding of mosquitoes with a focus on improved stability and compatibility with mass rearing programs. In contrast to whole blood, an artificial blood diet of ATP-supplemented plasma was effective in maintaining mosquito populations and was compatible with storage for extended periods refrigerated, frozen, and as a lyophilized powder. The plasma ATP diet supported rearing of both Anopheles and Aedes mosquitoes. It was also effective in rearing Wolbachia-infected Aedes mosquitoes, suggesting compatibility with vector control efforts