Statistical paleoclimate reconstructions via Markov random fields

Understanding centennial scale climate variability requires data sets that are accurate, long, continuous and of broad spatial coverage. Since instrumental measurements are generally only available after 1850, temperature fields must be reconstructed using paleoclimate archives, known as proxies. Various climate field reconstructions (CFR) methods have been proposed to relate past temperature to such proxy networks. In this work, we propose a new CFR method, called GraphEM, based on Gaussian Markov random fields embedded within an EM algorithm. Gaussian Markov random fields provide a natural and flexible framework for modeling high-dimensional spatial fields. At the same time, they provide the parameter reduction necessary for obtaining precise and well-conditioned estimates of the covariance structure, even in the sample-starved setting common in paleoclimate applications. In this paper, we propose and compare the performance of different methods to estimate the graphical structure of climate fields, and demonstrate how the GraphEM algorithm can be used to reconstruct past climate variations. The performance of GraphEM is compared to the widely used CFR method RegEM with regularization via truncated total least squares, using synthetic data. Our results show that GraphEM can yield significant improvements, with uniform gains over space, and far better risk properties. We demonstrate that the spatial structure of temperature fields can be well estimated by graphs where each neighbor is only connected to a few geographically close neighbors, and that the increase in performance is directly related to recovering the underlying sparsity in the covariance of the spatial field. Our work demonstrates how significant improvements can be made in climate reconstruction methods by better modeling the covariance structure of the climate field.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOAS794 in the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Maintenance of polymorphism in the orb weaving spider species Agalenatea redii (Araneae, Araneidae)

The maintenance of polymorphism within populations may be the consequence of several elements of species life history such as use of space, activity rhythms, predation, parasitism and reproduction. The present study focuses on the latter aspect using an orb weaving spider, Agalenatea redii, which presents five different morphs of the opisthosoma pattern in the adult stage. Over the course of four years, from 2008 to 2011, adult spiders (males, females and pairs) were observed at different sites. In 2011, we also conducted a six-week survey of a single population, observing the number of spiders of each morph and the morph of paired spiders. We collected field data on the spatial and temporal distribution of spiders based on their sex and morph. Using a distance analysis, we compared the field distribution with a simulated one in which pairs were associated at random. The results showed that although there were changes over time and space in the proportions of females of the different morphs, as well as in the proportion of the pair associations, pairing according to morphs probably occurs at random

Non-native speakers of English in the classroom: what are the effects on pupil performance?

There has been an increase in the number of children going to school in England who do not speak English as a first language. We investigate whether this has an impact on the educational outcomes of native English speakers at the end of primary school. We show that the negative correlation observed in the raw data is mainly an artefact of selection: non-native speakers are more likely to attend school with disadvantaged native speakers. We attempt to identify a causal impact of changes in the percentage of non-native speakers. Our results suggest zero effect and rule out negative effects

El Niño Modulations Over The Past Seven Centuries (Letter to the editor)

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Physiological responses of reared sea bream (Sparus aurata Linnaeus, 1758) to an Amyloodinium ocellatum outbreak

Amyloodiniosis represents a major bottleneck for semi-intensive aquaculture production in Southern Europe, causing extremely high mortalities. Amyloodinium ocellatum is a parasitic dinoflagellate that can infest almost all fish, crustacean and bivalves that live within its ecological range. Fish mortalities are usually attributed to anoxia, associated with serious gill hyperplasia, inflammation, haemorrhage and necrosis in heavy infestations; or with osmoregulatory impairment and secondary microbial infections due to severe epithelial damage in mild infestation. However, physiological information about the host responses to A.ocellatum infestation is scarce. In this work, we analysed the proteome of gilthead sea bream (Sparus aurata) plasma and relate it with haematological and immunological indicators, in order to enlighten the different physiological responses when exposed to an A.ocellatum outbreak. Using 2D-DIGE, immunological and haematological analysis and in response to the A.ocellatum contamination we have identified several proteins associated with acute-phase response, inflammation, lipid transport, homoeostasis, and osmoregulation, wound healing, neoplasia and iron transport. Overall, this preliminary study revealed that amyloodiniosis affects some fish functional pathways as revealed by the changes in the plasma proteome of S. aurata, and that the innate immunological system is not activated in the presence of the parasite.DIVERSIAQUA, Portugal [MAR2020]Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia [SFRH/BD/118601/2016]info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Cold tropical Pacific Sea surface temperatures during the late sixteenth-century North American megadrought

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 123 (2018):11.307-11.320, doi:10.1029/2018JD029323The late 16th‐century North American megadrought was notable for its persistence, extent, intensity, and occurrence after the main interval of megadrought activity during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Forcing from sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific is considered a possible driver of megadroughts, and we investigate this hypothesis for the late 16th‐century event using two new 600‐year long hydroclimate field reconstructions from Mexico and Australia. Areas represented by these reconstructions have strong teleconnections to tropical Pacific SSTs, evidenced by the leading principal component in each region explaining ∼40% of local hydroclimate variability and correlating significantly with the boreal winter (December‐January‐February) NINO 3.4 index. Using these two principal components as predictors, we develop a skillful reconstruction of the December‐January‐February NINO 3.4 index. The reconstruction reveals that the late 16th‐century megadrought likely occurred during one of the most persistent and intense periods of cold tropical Pacific SST anomalies of the last 600 years (1566–1590 C.E.; median NINO 3.4 = −0.79 K). This anomalously cold period coincided with a major filling episode for Kati Thanda‐Lake Eyre in Australia, a hydroclimate response dynamically consistent with the reconstructed SST state. These results offer new evidence that tropical Pacific forcing was an important driver of the late 16th‐century North American megadrought over the Southwest and Mexico, highlighting the large amplitude of natural variability that can occur within the climate system.2019-03-2

A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature- sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850–2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python