Optimal experiment design in a filtering context with application to sampled network data

We examine the problem of optimal design in the context of filtering multiple random walks. Specifically, we define the steady state E-optimal design criterion and show that the underlying optimization problem leads to a second order cone program. The developed methodology is applied to tracking network flow volumes using sampled data, where the design variable corresponds to controlling the sampling rate. The optimal design is numerically compared to a myopic and a naive strategy. Finally, we relate our work to the general problem of steady state optimal design for state space models.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOAS283 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Regularized estimation in sparse high-dimensional time series models

Many scientific and economic problems involve the analysis of high-dimensional time series datasets. However, theoretical studies in high-dimensional statistics to date rely primarily on the assumption of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) samples. In this work, we focus on stable Gaussian processes and investigate the theoretical properties of $\ell _1$-regularized estimates in two important statistical problems in the context of high-dimensional time series: (a) stochastic regression with serially correlated errors and (b) transition matrix estimation in vector autoregressive (VAR) models. We derive nonasymptotic upper bounds on the estimation errors of the regularized estimates and establish that consistent estimation under high-dimensional scaling is possible via $\ell_1$-regularization for a large class of stable processes under sparsity constraints. A key technical contribution of the work is to introduce a measure of stability for stationary processes using their spectral properties that provides insight into the effect of dependence on the accuracy of the regularized estimates. With this proposed stability measure, we establish some useful deviation bounds for dependent data, which can be used to study several important regularized estimates in a time series setting.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/15-AOS1315 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Discovering Graphical Granger Causality Using the Truncating Lasso Penalty

Components of biological systems interact with each other in order to carry out vital cell functions. Such information can be used to improve estimation and inference, and to obtain better insights into the underlying cellular mechanisms. Discovering regulatory interactions among genes is therefore an important problem in systems biology. Whole-genome expression data over time provides an opportunity to determine how the expression levels of genes are affected by changes in transcription levels of other genes, and can therefore be used to discover regulatory interactions among genes. In this paper, we propose a novel penalization method, called truncating lasso, for estimation of causal relationships from time-course gene expression data. The proposed penalty can correctly determine the order of the underlying time series, and improves the performance of the lasso-type estimators. Moreover, the resulting estimate provides information on the time lag between activation of transcription factors and their effects on regulated genes. We provide an efficient algorithm for estimation of model parameters, and show that the proposed method can consistently discover causal relationships in the large $p$, small $n$ setting. The performance of the proposed model is evaluated favorably in simulated, as well as real, data examples. The proposed truncating lasso method is implemented in the R-package grangerTlasso and is available at http://www.stat.lsa.umich.edu/~shojaie.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures, 1 tabl