Analyzing Faculty Publication Trends and Academic Rank Attainment: Haramaya University in the Spotlight

This study explores into the evolving landscape of faculty publication and academic rank attainment at Haramaya University. A comprehensive analysis was conducted, aligning the university's faculty promotion criteria with the recent Ministry of Education (MoE) standard, with a specific focus on research output. The research methodology comprised a meticulous examination of university records/archival research, including minutes documented by the university's appointment, promotion, and scholarship committee. In addition, the study enriched its insights through in-depth interviews with faculty members. The investigation explored academic promotion, gender dynamics, and the differentiation between native and expatriate faculty. The findings underscored certain disparities, particularly in terms of fields of study, nationality, and gender. A notable discrepancy was observed, with a higher proportion of male faculty members attaining promotions, a phenomenon more pronounced at elevated academic ranks such as Associate Professor and Full Professor. To address these disparities and nurture a more inclusive research environment, Haramaya university promotion policy may partially help as most of the values is given to publication, which was already fixed by the guideline prepared by Ethiopian MoE. A call for transparent promotion standards, robust mentorship programs, and focused support for women in research and leadership roles emerge as a means to bridge the gender gap in staff promotions. Furthermore, additional research and analysis must be undertaken to attain a more profound understanding of the factors influencing publishing trends, facilitate staff promotions, and ultimately advance the promotion of academic excellence

Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–18 : a modelling study

Background: High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000–18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit. Findings: The estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2 ·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1–3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4–1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7–0·9) in Mauritania to 676· 5 (513· 6–888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated rates were accordingly higher. Among second-level administrative units, Guijá District, Gaza Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV incidence (4661·7 [2544·8–8120·3]) cases per 100000 people in 2018 and Inhassunge District, Zambezia Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV mortality rate (1163·0 [679·0–1866·8]) deaths per 100 000 people. Further, the rate of reduction in HIV incidence and mortality from 2000 to 2018, as well as the ratio of new infections to the number of people living with HIV was highly variable. Although most second-level administrative units had declines in the number of new cases (3316 [81· 1%] of 4087 units) and number of deaths (3325 [81·4%]), nearly all appeared well short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths between 2010 and 2020. Interpretation: Our estimates suggest that most second-level administrative units in sub-Saharan Africa are falling short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths by 2020, which is further compounded by substantial within-country variability. These estimates will help decision makers and programme implementers expand access to ART and better target health resources to higher burden subnational areas

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

BACKGROUND: The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year. METHODS: For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol. FINDINGS: The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male. INTERPRETATION: There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

Background Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time. Methods For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dosespecific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in countryreported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development. Findings By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81.6% [95% uncertainty interval 80.4-82 .7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39.9% [37.5-42.1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38.5% [35.4-41.3] in 1980 to 83.6% [82.3-84.8] in 2019). Third- dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42.6% (41.4-44.1) in 1980 to 79.8% (78.4-81.1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56.8 million (52.6-60. 9) to 14.5 million (13.4-15.9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019. Interpretation After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Forecasting the effects of smoking prevalence scenarios on years of life lost and life expectancy from 2022 to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundSmoking is the leading behavioural risk factor for mortality globally, accounting for more than 175 million deaths and nearly 4·30 billion years of life lost (YLLs) from 1990 to 2021. The pace of decline in smoking prevalence has slowed in recent years for many countries, and although strategies have recently been proposed to achieve tobacco-free generations, none have been implemented to date. Assessing what could happen if current trends in smoking prevalence persist, and what could happen if additional smoking prevalence reductions occur, is important for communicating the effect of potential smoking policies. MethodsIn this analysis, we use the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's Future Health Scenarios platform to forecast the effects of three smoking prevalence scenarios on all-cause and cause-specific YLLs and life expectancy at birth until 2050. YLLs were computed for each scenario using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 reference life table and forecasts of cause-specific mortality under each scenario. The reference scenario forecasts what could occur if past smoking prevalence and other risk factor trends continue, the Tobacco Smoking Elimination as of 2023 (Elimination-2023) scenario quantifies the maximum potential future health benefits from assuming zero percent smoking prevalence from 2023 onwards, whereas the Tobacco Smoking Elimination by 2050 (Elimination-2050) scenario provides estimates for countries considering policies to steadily reduce smoking prevalence to 5%. Together, these scenarios underscore the magnitude of health benefits that could be reached by 2050 if countries take decisive action to eliminate smoking. The 95% uncertainty interval (UI) of estimates is based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of draws that were carried through the multistage computational framework. FindingsGlobal age-standardised smoking prevalence was estimated to be 28·5% (95% UI 27·9–29·1) among males and 5·96% (5·76–6·21) among females in 2022. In the reference scenario, smoking prevalence declined by 25·9% (25·2–26·6) among males, and 30·0% (26·1–32·1) among females from 2022 to 2050. Under this scenario, we forecast a cumulative 29·3 billion (95% UI 26·8–32·4) overall YLLs among males and 22·2 billion (20·1–24·6) YLLs among females over this period. Life expectancy at birth under this scenario would increase from 73·6 years (95% UI 72·8–74·4) in 2022 to 78·3 years (75·9–80·3) in 2050. Under our Elimination-2023 scenario, we forecast 2·04 billion (95% UI 1·90–2·21) fewer cumulative YLLs by 2050 compared with the reference scenario, and life expectancy at birth would increase to 77·6 years (95% UI 75·1–79·6) among males and 81·0 years (78·5–83·1) among females. Under our Elimination-2050 scenario, we forecast 735 million (675–808) and 141 million (131–154) cumulative YLLs would be avoided among males and females, respectively. Life expectancy in 2050 would increase to 77·1 years (95% UI 74·6–79·0) among males and 80·8 years (78·3–82·9) among females. InterpretationExisting tobacco policies must be maintained if smoking prevalence is to continue to decline as forecast by the reference scenario. In addition, substantial smoking-attributable burden can be avoided by accelerating the pace of smoking elimination. Implementation of new tobacco control policies are crucial in avoiding additional smoking-attributable burden in the coming decades and to ensure that the gains won over the past three decades are not lost. FundingBloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Machine learning algorithms for voltage stability assessment in electrical distribution systems

Abstract Voltage instability poses a significant challenge by limiting power system operation and transmission capacity. Rapid detection and effective corrective actions are essential to prevent voltage collapse. However, traditional methods for assessing voltage security margins are computationally intensive and often impractical for real-time applications. This study addresses voltage stability assessment in power systems using machine learning (ML) to overcome the computational limitations of traditional methods. By employing Linear Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting (GB), and Support Vector Machine (SVM), we predict Fast Voltage Stability Indices (FVSI) at nominal load as well as under varying loads (10–150%) in 15 kV Ethiopian distribution networks: a 35-bus Bata feeder system and a 53-bus Papyrus feeder system. RF and GB models achieved superior accuracy with R² values of 0.999 and 0.9998 respectively, significantly outperforming LR and SVM which exhibited substantial deviations. The GB model achieves the highest accuracy, with RMSE values of 0.0002 (53-bus) and 2.419e-05 (35-bus), while RF yields RMSE values of 0.0039 (53-bus) and 0.00120 (35-bus), demonstrating strong predictive performance. The FVSI threshold analysis revealed critical stability limits, with values approaching 1.0 indicating proximity to voltage collapse. The analysis identified buses 36, 32, and 21 in the 53-bus system (FVSI values: 0.087, 0.082, and 0.080) and buses 27 and 16 in the 35-bus system (FVSI values: 0.085 and 0.082) as critical instability risk points requiring immediate monitoring. These findings underscore the efficacy of ensemble methods for rapid voltage stability assessment and emphasize the need for targeted interventions in high-risk areas to bolster grid resilience in Ethiopian distribution networks

Ecological distribution, heavy metals profiling and human health risk assessment of medicinal plants used for tonsillitis and wounds treatment: A chemometric approach

Medicinal plants in Ethiopia are easily accessible, relatively low cost and trusted by the community, which drives people to use them to treat a variety of ailments for many years. For instance, Kalanchoe petition, Rhamnus prinoide & Acmella caulirhiza are the most popular medicinal plants that have been used for treating tonsillitis, while Brucea antidysenteric, Justicia shimperian, Jatropha curcas & Prunus Africana have been used for treating wounds. However, the presence of toxic chemicals like heavy metals above threshold concentrations poses a global threat to human health. This study was conducted to determine the levels of heavy metals and to evaluate non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic health impacts posed by using medicinal plants so as to create awareness among users about the chemical compositions of these plants. Five hundred grams of leaves, barks and flowers of the medicinal plants were collected randomly from ten plants from Ayehu Guwagusa and Asagirt districts, Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia in July 2022, and 0.5 g of homogenized samples were digested with HNO3 and HClO4 and the levels of metals were determined using Flame Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy (FAAS). The levels were (mg/kg) Fe: 173.6 ± 9.1-332.2 ± 9.2, Zn: 8.7 ± 0.2-40.2 ± 0.3, Cu: 29 ± 4- 84.1 ± 4.7, Mn: 17.03 ± 1.6- 77.4 ± 1.7, Ni: BDL- 41.4 ± 4.3, and Pb: 21.3 ± 15.1- 49.9 ± 9.6. Cd was found to below the detection limit. The hazard index is less than unity, ranged from 6.64 × 10−4 (J. schimperiana) to 6.43 × 10−3 (J. curcas) for all samples, indicating no significant non-carcinogenic effect on users due to heavy metals. Similarly, the carcinogenic risk values of Ni were raged from 6.64 × 10−9 in B. antidysenterica to 1.16 × 10−8 in J. curcas and for Pb it was found to be 6.04 × 10−8 in R. prinoides and 1.41 × 10−7 in J. curcas.Therefore, the results of this study indicated that the exposed populations are unlikely to experience any adverse cancer risk