Global environmental effects of impact-generated aerosols: Results from a general circulation model

Cooling and darkening at Earth's surface are expected to result from the interception of sunlight by the high altitude worldwide dust cloud generated by impact of a large asteroid or comet, according to the one-dimensional radioactive-convective atmospheric model (RCM) of Pollack et al. An analogous three-dimensional general circulation model (GCM) simulation obtains the same basic result as the RCM but there are important differences in detail. In the GCM simulation the heat capacity of the oceans, not included in the RCM, substantially mitigates land surface cooling. On the other hand, the GCM's low heat capacity surface allows surface temperatures to drop much more rapidly than reported by Pollack et al. These two differences between RCM and GCM simulations were noted previously in studies of nuclear winter; GCM results for comet/asteroid winter, however, are much more severe than for nuclear winter because the assumed aerosol amount is large enough to intercept all sunlight falling on Earth. In the simulation the global average of land surface temperature drops to the freezing point in just 4.5 days, one-tenth the time required in the Pollack et al. simulation. In addition to the standard case of Pollack et al., which represents the collision of a 10-km diameter asteroid with Earth, additional scenarios are considered ranging from the statistically more frequent impacts of smaller asteroids to the collision of Halley's comet with Earth. In the latter case the kinetic energy of impact is extremely large due to the head-on collision resulting from Halley's retrograde orbit

Impact of cloud-borne aerosol representation on aerosol direct and indirect effects

International audienceAerosol particles attached to cloud droplets are much more likely to be removed from the atmosphere and are much less efficient at scattering sunlight than if unattached. Models used to estimate direct and indirect effects of aerosols employ a variety of representations of such cloud-borne particles. Here we use a global aerosol model with a relatively complete treatment of cloud-borne particles to estimate the sensitivity of simulated aerosol, cloud and radiation fields to various approximations to the representation of cloud-borne particles. We find that neglecting transport of cloud-borne particles introduces little error, but that diagnosing cloud-borne particles produces global mean biases of 20% and local errors of up to 40% for aerosol, droplet number, and direct and indirect radiative forcing. Aerosol number, aerosol optical depth and droplet number are significantly underestimated in regions and seasons where and when wet removal is primarily by stratiform rather than convective clouds (polar regions during winter), but direct and indirect effects are less biased because of the limited sunlight there and then. A treatment that predicts the total mass concentration of cloud-borne particles for each mode yields smaller errors and runs 20% faster than the complete treatment. The errors are much smaller than current estimates of uncertainty in direct and indirect effects of aerosols, which suggests that the treatment of cloud-borne aerosol is not a significant source of uncertainty in estimates of direct and indirect effects

Dust-wind interactions can intensify aerosol pollution over eastern China.

Eastern China has experienced severe and persistent winter haze episodes in recent years due to intensification of aerosol pollution. In addition to anthropogenic emissions, the winter aerosol pollution over eastern China is associated with unusual meteorological conditions, including weaker wind speeds. Here we show, based on model simulations, that during years with decreased wind speed, large decreases in dust emissions (29%) moderate the wintertime land-sea surface air temperature difference and further decrease winds by -0.06 (±0.05) m s-1 averaged over eastern China. The dust-induced lower winds enhance stagnation of air and account for about 13% of increasing aerosol concentrations over eastern China. Although recent increases in anthropogenic emissions are the main factor causing haze over eastern China, we conclude that natural emissions also exert a significant influence on the increases in wintertime aerosol concentrations, with important implications that need to be taken into account by air quality studies

Indirect radiative forcing by ion-mediated nucleation of aerosol

A clear understanding of particle formation mechanisms is critical for assessing aerosol indirect radiative forcing and associated climate feedback processes. Recent studies reveal the importance of ion-mediated nucleation (IMN) in generating new particles and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in the atmosphere. Here we implement the IMN scheme into the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). Our simulations show that, compared to globally averaged results based on H<sub>2</sub>SO<sub>4</sub>-H<sub>2</sub>O binary homogeneous nucleation (BHN), the presence of ionization (i.e., IMN) halves H<sub>2</sub>SO<sub>4</sub> column burden, but increases the column integrated nucleation rate by around one order of magnitude, total particle number burden by a factor of ~3, CCN burden by ~10% (at 0.2% supersaturation) to 65% (at 1.0% supersaturation), and cloud droplet number burden by ~18%. Compared to BHN, IMN increases cloud liquid water path by 7.5%, decreases precipitation by 1.1%, and increases total cloud cover by 1.9%. This leads to an increase of total shortwave cloud radiative forcing (SWCF) by 3.67 W m<sup>−2</sup> (more negative) and longwave cloud forcing by 1.78 W m<sup>−2</sup> (more positive), with large spatial variations. The effect of ionization on SWCF derived from this study (3.67 W m<sup>−2</sup>) is a factor of ~3 higher that of a previous study (1.15 W m<sup>−2</sup>) based on a different ion nucleation scheme and climate model. Based on the present CAM5 simulation, the 5-yr mean impacts of solar cycle induced changes in ionization rates on CCN and cloud forcing are small (~−0.02 W m<sup>−2</sup>) but have larger inter-annual (from −0.18 to 0.17 W m<sup>−2</sup>) and spatial variations

The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Overview and description of models, simulations and climate diagnostics

The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) consists of a series of time slice experiments targeting the long-term changes in atmospheric composition between 1850 and 2100, with the goal of documenting composition changes and the associated radiative forcing. In this overview paper, we introduce the ACCMIP activity, the various simulations performed (with a requested set of 14) and the associated model output. The 16 ACCMIP models have a wide range of horizontal and vertical resolutions, vertical extent, chemistry schemes and interaction with radiation and clouds. While anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions were specified for all time slices in the ACCMIP protocol, it is found that the natural emissions are responsible for a significant range across models, mostly in the case of ozone precursors. The analysis of selected present-day climate diagnostics (precipitation, temperature, specific humidity and zonal wind) reveals biases consistent with state-of-the-art climate models. The model-to-model comparison of changes in temperature, specific humidity and zonal wind between 1850 and 2000 and between 2000 and 2100 indicates mostly consistent results. However, models that are clear outliers are different enough from the other models to significantly affect their simulation of atmospheric chemistry

A Simple Model of Global Aerosol Indirect Effects

Most estimates of the global mean indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth's energy balance are from simulations by global models of the aerosol lifecycle coupled with global models of clouds and the hydrologic cycle. Extremely simple models have been developed for integrated assessment models, but lack the flexibility to distinguish between primary and secondary sources of aerosol. Here a simple but more physically based model expresses the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) using analytic representations of cloud and aerosol distributions and processes. Although the simple model is able to produce estimates of AIEs that are comparable to those from some global aerosol models using the same global mean aerosol properties, the estimates by the simple model are sensitive to preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei concentration, preindustrial accumulation mode radius, width of the accumulation mode, size of primary particles, cloud thickness, primary and secondary anthropogenic emissions, the fraction of the secondary anthropogenic emissions that accumulates on the coarse mode, the fraction of the secondary mass that forms new particles, and the sensitivity of liquid water path to droplet number concentration. Estimates of present-day AIEs as low as 5 W/sq m and as high as 0.3 W/sq m are obtained for plausible sets of parameter values. Estimates are surprisingly linear in emissions. The estimates depend on parameter values in ways that are consistent with results from detailed global aerosol-climate simulation models, which adds to understanding of the dependence on AIE uncertainty on uncertainty in parameter values

Emission-Induced Nonlinearities in the Global Aerosol System: Results from the ECHAM5-HAM Aerosol-Climate Model

In a series of simulations with the global ECHAM5-HAM aerosol-climate model, the response to changes in anthropogenic emissions is analyzed. Traditionally, additivity is assumed in the assessment of the aerosol climate impact, as the underlying bulk aerosol models are largely constrained to linearity. The microphysical aerosol module HAM establishes degrees of freedom for nonlinear responses of the aerosol system. In this study’s results, aerosol column mass burdens respond nonlinearly to changes in anthropogenic emissions, manifested in alterations of the aerosol lifetimes. Specific emission changes induce modifications of aerosol cycles with unaltered emissions, indicating a microphysical coupling of the aerosol cycles. Anthropogenic carbonaceous emissions disproportionately contribute to the accumulation mode numbers close to the source regions. In contrast, anthropogenic sulfuric emissions less than proportionally contribute to the accumulation mode numbers close to the source regions and disproportionately contribute in remote regions. The additivity of the aerosol system is analyzed by comparing the changes from a simulation with emission changes for several compounds with the sum of changes of single simulations, in each of which one of the emission changes was introduced. Close to the anthropogenic source regions, deviations from additivity are found at up to 30% and 15% for the accumulation mode number burden and aerosol optical thickness, respectively. These results challenge the traditional approach of assessing the climate impact of aerosols separately for each component and demand for integrated assessments and emission strategies

Global volcanic aerosol properties derived from emissions, 1990-2014, using CESM1(WACCM)

Accurate representation of global stratospheric aerosols from volcanic and non-volcanic sulfur emissions is key to understanding the cooling effects and ozone-losses that may be linked to volcanic activity. Attribution of climate variability to volcanic activity is of particular interest in relation to the post-2000 slowing in the rate of global average temperature increases. We have compiled a database of volcanic SO2 emissions and plume altitudes for eruptions from 1990 to 2014, and developed a new prognostic capability for simulating stratospheric sulfate aerosols in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We used these combined with other non-volcanic emissions of sulfur sources to reconstruct global aerosol properties from 1990 to 2014. Our calculations show remarkable agreement with ground-based lidar observations of stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD), and with in situ measurements of stratospheric aerosol surface area density (SAD). These properties are key parameters in calculating the radiative and chemical effects of stratospheric aerosols. Our SAOD calculations represent a clear improvement over available satellite-based analyses, which generally ignore aerosol extinction below 15 km, a region that can contain the vast majority of stratospheric aerosol extinction at mid- and high-latitudes. Our SAD calculations greatly improve on that provided for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative, which misses about 60% of the SAD measured in situ on average during both volcanically active and volcanically quiescent periods