Precise Propagation of Upper and Lower Probability Bounds in System P

In this paper we consider the inference rules of System P in the framework of coherent imprecise probabilistic assessments. Exploiting our algorithms, we propagate the lower and upper probability bounds associated with the conditional assertions of a given knowledge base, automatically obtaining the precise probability bounds for the derived conclusions of the inference rules. This allows a more flexible and realistic use of System P in default reasoning and provides an exact illustration of the degradation of the inference rules when interpreted in probabilistic terms. We also examine the disjunctive Weak Rational Monotony of System P+ proposed by Adams in his extended probability logic.Comment: 8 pages -8th Intl. Workshop on Non-Monotonic Reasoning NMR'2000, April 9-11, Breckenridge, Colorad

Probabilistic entailment in the setting of coherence: The role of quasi conjunction and inclusion relation

In this paper, by adopting a coherence-based probabilistic approach to default reasoning, we focus the study on the logical operation of quasi conjunction and the Goodman-Nguyen inclusion relation for conditional events. We recall that quasi conjunction is a basic notion for defining consistency of conditional knowledge bases. By deepening some results given in a previous paper we show that, given any finite family of conditional events F and any nonempty subset S of F, the family F p-entails the quasi conjunction C(S); then, given any conditional event E|H, we analyze the equivalence between p-entailment of E|H from F and p-entailment of E|H from C(S), where S is some nonempty subset of F. We also illustrate some alternative theorems related with p-consistency and p-entailment. Finally, we deepen the study of the connections between the notions of p-entailment and inclusion relation by introducing for a pair (F,E|H) the (possibly empty) class K of the subsets S of F such that C(S) implies E|H. We show that the class K satisfies many properties; in particular K is additive and has a greatest element which can be determined by applying a suitable algorithm

Algebraic aspects and coherence conditions for conjunctions among conditional events

We deepen the study of a notion of conjunction among conditional events, introduced in previous papers in theframework of coherence. This notion of conjunction, differently from other approaches, is given in the setting ofconditional random quantities. We show that some well known properties which are satisfied by conjunctionsof unconditional events are also satisfied by conjunctions of conditional events. In particular we examine anadditive property and a decomposition formula, by also obtaining a generalized inclusion-exclusion formula. Then,by exploiting the notion of conjunction, we introduce the set of constituents generated bynconditional events.Moreover, under logical independence, we give a necessary and sufficient condition of coherence for the previsionassessments on a familyFconstituted bynconditional events and all possible conjunctions among some of them.This condition of coherence has a simple geometrical characterization in terms of a suitable convex hull. Such acharacterization amounts to the solvability of a linear system as in the case of unconditional events. Then, weillustrate the set of all coherent assessments on the familyFby a list of linear inequalities on the componentsof the prevision assessment. Finally, given a coherent assessmentMonF, we show that every possible value ofthe random vector associated withFis itself a particular coherent assessment onF

EFEKTIVITAS RUBRIK KABAR CIMAHI HARIAN UMUM GALAMEDIA DALAM MEMENUHI KEBUTUHAN INFORMASI WARGA KOTA CIMAHI

Penelitian ini berjudul “Efektivitas Rubrik Kabar Cimahi Harian Umum Galamedia Dalam Memenuhi Kebutuhan Informasi Warga Kota Cimahi”. Objek dari penelitian ini adalah media cetak Harian Umum Galamedia. Dan pembaca yaitu warga Kota Cimahi sebagai responden. Jumlah responden dalam penelitian ini ialah sebanyak 100 orang. Tujuan dari diadakan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui efektivitas rubrik Kabar Cimahi Harian Umum Galamedia dalam memenuhi kebutuhan informasi warga Kota Cimahi serta hambatan-hambatan yang dialami redaksi Harian Umum Galamedia ketika memberikan informasi pada pembacanya. Dan juga usaha-usaha yang dilakukan untuk mengatasi hambatan-hambatan tersebut. Teori yang digunakan adalah Uses and Gratification. Serta metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah kuantitatif dengan pendekatan deskriptif. Dalam metode penelitian ini, peneliti menggunakan beberapa tahapan yaitu studi kepustakaan dan studi lapangan dengan cara penyebaran angket kepada responden, observasi dan juga wawancara dengan pihak redaksi Harian Umum Galamedia. Dari hasil penelitian yang dilakukan, rubrik Kabar Cimahi Harian Umum Galamedia dalam memenuhi kebutuhan informasi warga Kota Cimahi sudah cukup efektif. Namun masih banyak kekurangan dan hambatan yang terasa oleh pihak redaksi Harian Umum Galamedia sendiri. Diantaranya yaitu kurangnya sumber daya manusia serta kemampuan perusahaan dalam mendukung kerja redaksi. Rekomendasi peneliti agar pihak Harian Umum Galamedia tetap menjaga kinerja serta kesinambungan antara pihak redaksi dan perusahaan guna terciptanya kerjasama yang baik. Menambah sumber daya manusia adalah salah satu hal yang harus dipertimbangkan, agar tenaga, kreatifitas serta usaha akan lebih menghasilkan lagi dan dapat memberikan informasi dan berita yang lebih baik lagi bagi pembaca sehingga pembaca dapat terpenuhi lagi kebutuhan informasiny

Conjunction, disjunction and iterated conditioning of conditional events

Starting from a recent paper by S. Kaufmann, we introduce a notion of conjunction of two conditional events and then we analyze it in the setting of coherence. We give a representation of the conjoined conditional and we show that this new object is a conditional random quantity, whose set of possible values normally contains the probabilities assessed for the two conditional events. We examine some cases of logical dependencies, where the conjunction is a conditional event; moreover, we give the lower and upper bounds on the conjunction. We also examine an apparent paradox concerning stochastic independence which can actually be explained in terms of uncorrelation. We briefly introduce the notions of disjunction and iterated conditioning and we show that the usual probabilistic properties still hold

Detection of subclinical hypotony maculopathy with OCT III after filtration surgery

PURPOSE: To detect nondiagnostic hypotony maculopathy by OCT III after filtration surgery. METHODS: After surgery, patients with intraocular pressure less than 9 mmHg were submitted to OCT III examination. RESULTS: Seven (87.50%) patients with previous diagnosis of open angle glaucoma and one (12.50%) of them with acute angle closure glaucoma. Two patients (25.00%) presented hypotony maculopathy on OCT III examination. CONCLUSION: OCT III examination seems to be a good diagnostic method to detect subclinical hypotony maculopathy after filtration surgery.OBJETIVO: Detectar possíveis sinais de maculopatia hipotônica subclínica por meio da OCT III em pacientes submetidos à cirurgia filtrante. MÉTODOS: Pacientes que realizaram procedimento cirúrgico filtrante com pressão intra-ocular menor que 9 mmHg submeteram-se ao exame OCT III. RESULTADOS: Sete (87,50%) pacientes apresentaram diagnóstico prévio de glaucoma crônico simples e 1 (12,50%) de glaucoma agudo de ângulo fechado. Apenas duas pacientes (25,00%) apresentaram maculopatia hipotônica detectada pela OCT III. CONCLUSÃO: A OCT III parece ser um bom método diagnóstico de maculopatia hipotônica subclínica em pacientes submetidos à cirurgia filtrante convencional.Complexo Hospitalar Padre BentoCHPBUniversidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP) Setor de GlaucomaCHPB Setor de GlaucomaUNIFESPUNIFESP, Setor de GlaucomaUNIFESPSciEL

Kawasaki disease: clinical experience in a university hospital

OBJETIVO: A doença de Kawasaki é uma vasculite sistêmica aguda de etiologia desconhecida. Seu diagnóstico baseia-se em critérios clínicos. O objetivo deste estudo foi descrever os casos de pacientes com doença de Kawasaki internados no Hospital Universitário da Universidade de São Paulo entre janeiro/2000 e junho/2008. MÉTODOS: Dentre todos os pacientes internados na Enfermaria de Pediatria no período acima, foram selecionados aqueles cujo CID de alta foi doença de Kawasaki. Realizou-se estudo descritivo por meio da análise dos prontuários dessas crianças. RESULTADOS: Foram encontrados 18 casos. A média de internações foi de 2,1 casos/ano. A idade variou de três meses a nove anos. A proporção meninos:meninas foi 1:1,25. Receberam outros diagnósticos prévios 17 pacientes, sendo escarlatina em 2/3 dos casos. O tempo de febre antes do diagnóstico variou de cinco a 11 dias. Nove crianças apresentaram quatro sinais sugestivos de doença de Kawasaki; oito apresentaram cinco sinais e uma apresentou dois sinais, o que foi considerado doença de Kawasaki incompleta. Receberam gamaglobulina 15 crianças (entre o sexto e o décimo dias de evolução) e 11 (73%) ficaram afebris após infusão da medicação. Os demais tiveram febre até 24 horas após a administração. Todos os pacientes realizaram ecocardiograma e três apresentaram aneurisma leve da coronária. CONCLUSÕES: A doença de Kawasaki é habitualmente confundida com outras doenças, o que causa retardo no tratamento e aumento no risco de complicações cardíacas.OBJECTIVE: Kawasaki disease is an acute systemic vasculitis of unknown etiology. Its diagnosis is based on clinical criteria. This study aimed to describe Kawasaki disease cases treated at the University Hospital of Universidade de São Paulo, from January/2000 to June/2008. METHODS: Among all patients admitted to the pediatric ward during this period, patients whose discharge ICD was Kawasaki disease were selected. A descriptive study was carried out by analyzing the records of these children. RESULTS: 18 cases were found, with an average of 2.1 cases/year. Patients varied from three to nine years old. The boys/girls ratio was 1/1.25. Seventeen patients had previously been misdiagnosed with other diseases, being 2/3 of them scarlet fever. Prior to diagnosis, fever had persisted for five to 11 days. Nine patients showed four suggestive signs of Kawasaki disease, eight patients showed five signs, and one patient had two suggestive signs, which was considered as incomplete Kawasaki disease. Gammaglobulin was administered to 15 children (between the 6th-10th day of the disease), with 11 (73%) of them having no fever following the administration. The other ones had fever for up to 24 hours following gammaglobolin use. All patients were evaluated by echocardiograms, and three of them showed mild coronary aneurysm. CONCLUSIONS: Kawasaki disease is usually misdiagnosed, thereby delaying treatment and increasing the risk of heart

Crises focais benignas do adolescente: disfunção neuropsicológica leve em pacientes da comunidade

RATIONALE: Benign focal seizures of adolescence (BFSA) described by Loiseau et al in 1972, is considered a rare entity, but maybe underdiagnosed. Although mild neuropsychological deficits have been reported in patients with benign epilepsies of childhood, these evaluations have not so far been described in BFSA. The aim of this study is to evaluate neuropsychological functions in BFSA with new onset seizures (<12 months). METHODS: Eight patients with BFSA (according to Loiseau et al, 1972, focal or secondarily tonic clonic generalized seizures between the ages of 10-18 yrs., normal neurologic examination, normal EEG or with mild focal abnormalities) initiated in the last 12 months were studied between July 2008 to May 2009. They were referred from the Pediatric Emergency Section of the Hospital Universitário of the University of Sao Paulo, a secondary care regionalized facility located in a district of middle-low income in Sao Paulo city, Brazil. The study was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Institution. All patients performed neurological, EEG, brain CT and neuropsychological evaluation which consisted of Raven's Special Progressive Matrices - General and Special Scale (according to different ages), Wechsler Children Intelligence Scale-WISC III with ACID Profile, Trail Making Test A/B, Stroop Test, Bender Visuo-Motor Test, Rey Complex Figure, Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test-RAVLT, Boston Naming Test, Fluency Verbal for phonological and also conceptual patterns - FAS/Animals and Hooper Visual Organization Test. For academic achievement, we used a Brazilian test for named "Teste do Desempenho Escolar", which evaluates abilities to read, write and calculate according to school grade. RESULTS: There were 2 boys and 6 girls, with ages ranging from 10 yrs. 9 m to 14 yrs. 3 m. Most (7/8) of the patients presented one to two seizures and only three of them received antiepileptic drugs (AEDs). Six had mild EEG focal abnormalities and all had normal brain CT. All were literate, attended regular public schools and scored in a median range for IQ, and seven showed discrete higher scores for the verbal subtests. There were low scores for attention in different modalities in six patients, mainly in alternated attention as well as inhibitory subtests (Stroop test and Trail Making Test part B). Four of the latter cases who showed impairment both in alternated and inhibitory attention were not taking AEDs. Visual memory was impaired in five patients (Rey Complex Figure). Executive functions analysis showed deficits in working memory in five, mostly observed in Digits Indirect Order and Arithmetic tests (WISC III). Reading and writing skills were below the expected average for school grade in six patients according to the achievement scholar performance test utilized. One patient of this series who had the best scores in all tests was taking phenobarbital. CONCLUSIONS: Neuropsychological imbalance between normal IQ and mild dysfunctions such as in attention domain and in some executive abilities like working memory and planning, as well as difficulties in visual memory and in reading and writing, were described in this group of patients with BFSA from community. This may reflect mild higher level neurological dysfunctions in adolescence idiopathic focal seizures probably caused by an underlying dysmaturative epileptogenic process. Although academic problems often have multiple causes, a specific educational approach may be necessary in these adolescents, in order to improve their scholastic achievements, helping in this way, to decrease the stigma associated to epileptic seizures in the community.INTRODUÇÃO: Crises focais benignas do adolescente (CFBA) descritas por Loiseau et al. em 1972, são consideradas raras, mas podem ser subdiagnosticadas. Déficits neuropsicológicos leves foram relatados em pacientes com epilepsias benignas da infância, mas até o momento tais avaliações não foram descritas na CFBA. O objetivo deste estudo é avaliar as funções neuropsicológicas na CFBA de início recente (<12 meses). MÉTODOS: Oito pacientes com CFBA (segundo Loiseau et al. 1972, caracterizada por crises focais ou secundariamente tonico-clonico-generalizadas entre as idades de 10 a 18 anos), iniciadas nos últimos 12 meses, com exame neurológico normal, EEG normal ou com anormalidades focais, tomografia de crânio normal no período de Julho de 2008 a Maio de 2009. Os pacientes foram encaminhados do Setor de Emergência Pediátrica do Hospital Universitário da Universidade de São Paulo, que é hospital de atendimento secundário regionalizado localizado em um distrito de classe média da cidade de São Paulo, SP. O projeto foi aprovado pelo Comitê de Ética da Instituição. Todos pacientes realizaram exame neurológico, EEG e tomografia de crânio. A avaliação neuropsicológica consistiu dos seguintes testes: Matrizes Progressivas Especiais do Raven - Escala Geral e Especial (de acordo com as diferentes idades), Escala de Inteligência Wechsler para crianças - WISC III - com perfil ACID, Teste Trail Making A/B, Teste de Stroop, Teste Visuo-Motor de Bender, Figura Complexa de Rey, Teste de Aprendizado Auditivo Verbal de Rey - RAVLT, Teste de Nomeação de Boston, Teste de Fluência Verbal para padrões fonológicos e conceptuais-FAS/Animais e Teste de Organizacão Visual de Hooper. Para o desempenho escolar, foi usado o teste brasileiro chamado "Teste do Desempenho Escolar", que avalia as habilidades de leitura, escrita de acordo com o grau de escolaridade. RESULTADOS: Foram estudados seis pacientes do sexo feminino e dois, do masculino, com idades variando de 10 anos e 9 meses a 14 anos e 3 meses. A maioria (7/8) dos pacientes apresentou uma a duas crises e somente três receberam drogas antiepilépticas (DAEs). Seis pacientes apresentaram anormalidades focais leves no EEG. Todos estavam alfabetizados, frequentavam escolas regulares do sistema público e apresentaram avaliação de Quociente Intelectual na faixa média para idade e sete mostravam discretos valores maiores nos subtestes verbais. Havia valores menores para atenção em diferentes modalidades em seis pacientes, especialmente na atenção alternada e no controle inibitório (Testes Stroop-like e Trail Making parte B). Quatro dos últimos casos que mostraram prejuízo tanto na atenção alternada como inibitória não estavam tomando DAEs. A memória visual estava prejudicada em cinco pacientes (Figura Complexa de Rey). As funções executivas mostraram déficits na memória operacional em cinco, especialmente observados nos subtestes de Aritmética e na Ordem Indireta de Dígitos (WISC III). A leitura e escrita estavam abaixo da média esperada para a série escolar segundo o teste de desempenho escolar utilizado, em seis pacientes. Um dos pacientes que apresentava os maiores valores do grupo em todos os testes estava recebendo fenobarbital. CONCLUSÕES: Uma desproporção entre QI normal e disfunções neuropsicológicas leves tais como na esfera atencional e em algumas funções executivas como memória operacional e planejamento de ação, assim como na memória visual e problemas acadêmicos na leitura e escrita, foram descritos neste grupo de pacientes com CBFA da comunidade. Isto pode refletir disfunções neuropsicológicas leves em pacientes com crises idiopáticas do adolescente provavelmente causadas por um processo epileptogênico dismaturativo sobrejacente. Embora problemas acadêmicos escolares frequentemente apresentem múltiplas causas, uma abordagem educacional específica pode ser necessária nestes adolescentes, a fim de melhorar seu desempenho, ajudando desta forma a minimizar o estigma associado às crises epilépticas na comunidade