Leveraging improved seed technology, migration and climate information for building the adaptive capacity and resilience to climate risks in semi-arid regions

Droughts induced by climate change will most likely push dryland ecosystems beyond their biophysical thresholds and lead to long-term decline in agricultural productivity. Subsistence farming in developing countries where agricultural productivity is low will become less viable for many families already ravaged by food insecurity and poverty. This dissertation examines three ways of reducing vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate variability and building resilience in the farming communities residing in semiarid lands. These include the use of adaptive seed technology, migration as a livelihood diversification and adaptive strategy, and the use of climate information in farm decision-making. The second chapter evaluates the impact of improved adaptive seed technology on market participation and food security, using data from a representative sample of 1344 households selected across six agroecological zones in Kenya. The study employed two estimation procedures for impact evaluation: a control function regression using OLS and IV regression estimated by Heckman bivariate sample selection model and 2SLS regression. The study used percentile shares approach to describe distributional inequalities in improved seed adoption across households. Kenya has a well-developed seed system, through which adaptive maize seed has been introduced for various agro-ecological zones. Despite its success with improved maize breeding programs, Kenya is still grappling with food insecurity. The marketed share of household's maize produce, among adopters, was on average 12 percentage points higher than for the control group. This increased with adoption intensity, albeit at a decreasing rate. The top 20% of households accounted for 63% of the quantity and 65% of the area planted with improved maize. The bottom 40% only accounted for 6% of the quantity purchased and 5% of the area planted with improved maize. Adopting households were less vulnerable to food insecurity and stored maize for longer than non-adopters. Larger families participated less in the market and were more food insecure. Wealth and education are other key determinants of food security and market participation. The results of the study indicate a need for a strategic policy on food security in Kenya that considers the concentrated nature of the maize farming sector, to address the problem of food insecurity. Such a policy could aim at food self-sufficiency for small farms and promote commercial production by large-scale producers for national strategic reserves. There is also a need for post-harvest policies that promote safe on-farm grain storage for small and medium scale producers. The third chapter focuses on migration, because of the growing interest among scholars in understanding the relationship between migration and adaptation to climate change. Past studies have looked at climate change as a trigger for migration, but the focus has now shifted to looking at migration as an enabler of climate-change adaptation and a livelihood diversification strategy. However, those most vulnerable to climate variability are the poor who are less able to afford mobility and entry costs. This study adds to the literature by evaluating, in chapter 3, the impact of migration on household consumption expenditure, relative food expenditure share, dietary diversity, spending on agricultural inputs and adaptive capacity. The study used survey data collected from a representative sample of 653 households across three arid regions of Northern Namibia. The study employed a novel identification strategy in migration studies by combining the standard exogenous instruments and Lewbel's constructed instruments using heteroscedastic errors. The study found two-thirds of the sampled households to be migrant-sending households. Poverty and the lack of economic opportunities in the rural villages were the main push factors driving migration to towns and cities. Although tertiary education and technical training of the migrants are key determinants of remittances received by migrant-sending households, over three quarters of the migrants were unskilled and very few having tertiary level training. Migrant-sending households had lower consumption spending and higher food budget share, suggesting relative deprivation. Although consumption spending increased with number of migrants, quality of human capital had greater impact on well-being. Migration had a positive impact on household's adaptive capacity but an inverse relationship between number of migrants and adaptation suggests failure of local adaptive strategies. The study finds households with migrants to have a significantly higher spending on agricultural inputs than those without migrants, with tractor-hire services for land preparation being a major component. The effect of family labour loss is somehow, through remittances, countervailed and compensated by mechanization. In conclusion, migration can potentially play a bigger role as an adaptive and risk-mitigation strategy in the face of climate variability, but poverty, lack of post-school skills training, and low transition to tertiary-level training are key barriers. Developing markets for credit, inputs and farm output, and preparing migrants for participation in labour markets and self-employment through training can further enhance the impact of migration and build resilience to climate shocks. Due to selfreinforcing poverty traps in poor households, the study recommends targeted public programs that support higher education and technical training. Lastly, chapter 4 examined the role of climate information and early warning in decision-making among farming communities in rural Namibia. Improved climate forecasting has been heralded as an important risk management and mitigation tool in climate-sensitive economic sectors such as agriculture. However, Africa has not reaped the benefits of improved climate forecasting and empirical studies about its impact are scanty. Chapter 4 first discusses access to and utilization of climate information in farm decisionmaking, and then evaluates its impact on dietary diversity, food spending and adaptive capacity of the households using propensity score matching, with a sensitivity analysis for hidden bias. Only half of the farmers had access to climate information and most of them relied primarily on traditional knowledge to make decisions on crop and livestock production. Many of the households without access to climate information also had little knowledge of alternative adaptive strategies. The likelihood of receiving climate information increased with the number of migrants per household, household size, social networks, trust and participation in community decision-making processes, but declined with age. Although male heads were more likely to receive climate information, females headed most of the households. The main sources of information for farmers were radios and peer learning. Respondents expressed a low level of trust in information from available channels and most of them rated the information received as insufficient for decision-making. Although 95% of households owned mobile phones, only 5% received information through them, indicating untapped opportunity of using an ICT platform to share information with farmers. Households with climate information had more diversified diets and significantly higher food spending. These households also engaged in more adaptive strategies, but the scale of adoption was small. Community empowerment through enhanced access to extension services, information on alternative adaptive choices, and the development of markets, rural communication and transport infrastructure are prerequisites to access to and effective utilization of improved climate forecast information for successful adaptation

Correlates gender traits and mindset on the choice of physics subject at high school in Kenya

Higher education and training in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) are important for the industrial growth and development of any nation. Physics subject provides the basics for training in many STEM areas. However, failure to pursue physics to the end of high school denies learners opportunities in STEM courses. This research employed a correlational design and survey method to examine the relationship of gender traits (GT) and mindset (MS) with learners’ intention to choose physics among 378 high school students randomly sampled. The study adopted the gender traits test and mindset questionnaires. The Chi-square test for the relationship of GT and MS with the intention to choose a physics subject yielded p>0.05. These results revealed that no student is deprived of an opportunity to pursue physics to higher levels on account of their GT or MS. Thus, attempts to increase the number of learners who can potentially pursue STEM courses by studying physics in high school should focus on other known factors other than GT and MS

TH1.1: Can I speak to the manager? Unpacking intrahousehold decision-making in maize production in Kenya

Research looking at the gender gap in uptake of agricultural technologies often assumes that men and women make farm management decisions as individuals. In fact, relatively little is understood about the dynamics of agricultural decision-making for plot management within dual-adult households. This study used vignettes to examine decision-making structures related to maize production in over 600 spousal-couple households in Kenya. The results indicate a high degree of joint management of maize plots (55%), although some management decisions—notably those related to purchased inputs—are more often controlled by men, while other decisions—including those related to hiring of labor and deciding how harvested maize will be used—are disproportionately controlled by women. The high prevalence of joint decision-making underscores the importance of ensuring that both men's and women's priorities, needs, and constraints are reflected in design and marketing of interventions to support maize production, including those related to breeding, seed systems, capacity building, and agricultural extension. Furthermore, evidence that men disproportionately control the decisions that most directly impact maize production potential, and that the rationales behind decision-making structures differ according to respondent gender, point to the relevance of gender-transformative approaches that increase respect for women's knowledge and build their influence over decisions that impact production potential directly

Can I speak to the manager? The gender dynamics of decision-making in Kenyan maize plots

Gender and social inclusion efforts in agricultural development are focused on making uptake of agricultural technologies more equitable. Yet research looking at how gender relations influence technology uptake often assumes that men and women within a household make farm management decisions as individuals. Relatively little is understood about the dynamics of agricultural decision-making within dual-adult households where individuals’ management choices are likely influenced by others in the household. This study used vignettes to examine decision-making related to maize plot management in 698 dual-adult households in rural Kenya. The results indicated a high degree of joint management of maize plots (55%), although some management decisions—notably those related to purchased inputs—were slightly more likely to be controlled by men, while other decisions—including those related to hiring of labor and maize end uses—were more likely to be made by women. The prevalence of joint decision-making underscores the importance of ensuring that both men’s and women’s priorities and needs are reflected in design and marketing of interventions to support maize production, including those related to seed systems, farmer capacity building, and input delivery

Role of hybrid maize adoption on food security in Kenya: an application of two-step generalized method of moments (gmm2s)

Kenya has made significant strides in developing hybrid maize varieties and is considered a success story in the region. The number of hybrid varieties released per year has been increasing but average maize yields and consumption have been declining resulting to food insecurity in both urban and rural areas. Past studies evaluated the impact of hybrid maize on income inequality and poverty but none on food security impact in Kenya. This paper used representative data from 1344 households to answer this question. Three food security indicators are considered: Months of adequate household food provisioning (MAHFP), household food insecurity access scale (HFIAS) scores and household food insecurity access prevalence (HFIAP). The paper applies two step gmm2s specification and corresponding tests for relevance and validity of the instruments. Household food insecurity prevalence is assessed using generalized ordered logit model. Food security increase with hybrid maize adoption, maize sales, wealth, education, access to financial services and irrigation water but decline with household size. Food security also vary with agro ecological zones. Hybrid maize adoption reduces the risk of being moderately and severely food insecure by 5% and 13% respectively. Results suggest the need for policies that enhance hybrid seed adoption, surplus production, education, improve welfare and promote family planning

Can climate information salvage livelihoods in arid and semiarid lands? : an evaluation of access, use and impact in Namibia

The study evaluates the impact of climate information on adaptive capacity and food security. The survey of 653 households showed that half of the households receiving climate information rated it as insufficient for decision-making, and relied on traditional knowledge. The main channels were radio and farmer’s peers, but trust was low. Effective response to climate information for risk mitigation will require enhanced community awareness of available adaptive choices, development of market value chains, institutional support like extension services, and improvement of rural road and communication infrastructure

Harvestplus household survey, Zambia 2011, section on storage and climate

In this data base, representative georeferenced farmer survey data from Zambia from 2011 are combined with climate data to estimate storage losses, analyze their relationship with climate, and estimate the effect of climate change on storage losses. The storage loss data include importance of different pests (maize weevils and larger grain borer), and farmers’ estimates of storage loss due to both pests, in grain and cobs. The climate data include temperature (from WorldClim) and relative humidity (from CHIRTS) over the storage season in 2011

Kenya Rural Household Panel Survey - Household and maize data 2010 & 2013

Data from two CIMMYT and KALRO household surveys representative of six maize production areas or agroecological zones in Kenya. The surveys were conducted in 2010 and 2013 collected data on farmer demographics, adoption of improved technologies and practices, marketing, access to agricultural information, and farmer adaptation to climate change