Recent variability of the global ocean carbon sink

We present a new observation-based estimate of the global oceanic carbon dioxide (CO2) sink and its temporal variation on a monthly basis from 1998 through 2011 and at a spatial resolution of 1×1. This sink estimate rests upon a neural network-based mapping of global surface ocean observations of the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) from the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas database. The resulting pCO2 has small biases when evaluated against independent observations in the different ocean basins, but larger randomly distributed differences exist particularly in high latitudes. The seasonal climatology of our neural network-based product agrees overall well with the Takahashi et al. (2009) climatology, although our product produces a stronger seasonal cycle at high latitudes. From our global pCO2 product, we compute a mean net global ocean (excluding the Arctic Ocean and coastal regions) CO2 uptake flux of −1.42 ± 0.53 Pg C yr−1, which is in good agreement with ocean inversion-based estimates. Our data indicate a moderate level of interannual variability in the ocean carbon sink (±0.12 Pg C yr−1, 1𝜎) from 1998 through 2011, mostly originating from the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and associated with the El Nino–Southern Oscillation. Accounting for steady state riverine and Arctic Ocean carbon fluxes our estimate further implies a mean anthropogenic CO2 uptake of −1.99 ± 0.59 Pg C yr−1 over the analysis period. From this estimate plus the most recent estimates for fossil fuel emissions and atmospheric CO2 accumulation, we infer a mean global land sink of −2.82 ± 0.85 Pg C yr−1 over the 1998 through 2011 period with strong interannual variation

Closing the global radiocarbon budget 1945-2005

The global radiocarbon cycle of the last 60 years was simulated with the Global RAdioCarbon Exploration Model (GRACE). The total radiocarbon production by atmospheric nuclear bomb tests was determined using available stratospheric and tropospheric radiocarbon (14C) observations as constraints. To estimate the range of uncertainty in the explosive force of atmospheric nuclear bomb tests and their respective 14C yield factor, we applied different published bomb test compilations. Furthermore, to account for a possible small bias in the available stratospheric excess radiocarbon observations, we tested the different bomb test compilations with both uncorrected and corrected stratospheric 14C observations. For each of these scenarios of the total bomb 14C burden, the model simulated the distribution of excess radiocarbon among the stratosphere, troposphere, biosphere, and ocean carbon reservoirs. With a global bomb 14C production of 598—632*10^26 atoms (99-105 kmol) 14C between 1945 and 1980, simulated excess radiocarbon inventories are in good agreement with all available stratospheric and tropospheric radiocarbon observations as well as with the latest estimates of the ocean excess radiocarbon inventories during the GEOSECS and WOCE surveys from Peacock (2004) and Key et al. (2004). For the very first time, our model is thus capable of closing the excess radiocarbon budget on the basis of our current knowledge of exchange rates and reservoir sizes in the global carbon system

Global monthly averaged CO 2 fluxes recovered using a geostatistical inverse modeling approach: 2. Results including auxiliary environmental data

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/94853/1/jgrd14632.pd

Attribution of divergent northern vegetation growth responses to lengthening non-frozen seasons using satellite optical-NIR and microwave remote sensing

The non-frozen (NF) season duration strongly influences the northern carbon cycle where frozen (FR) temperatures are a major constraint to biological processes. The landscape freeze-thaw (FT) signal from satellite microwave remote sensing provides a surrogate measure of FR temperature constraints to ecosystem productivity, trace gas exchange, and surface water mobility. We analysed a new global satellite data record of daily landscape FT dynamics derived from temporal classification of overlapping SMMR and SSM/I 37 GHz frequency brightness temperatures (Tb). The FT record was used to quantify regional patterns, annual variability, and trends in the NF season over northern (≥45°N) vegetated land areas. The ecological significance of these changes was evaluated against satellite normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) anomalies, estimated moisture and temperature constraints to productivity determined from meteorological reanalysis, and atmospheric CO2 records. The FT record shows a lengthening (2.4 days decade-1; p < 0.005) mean annual NF season trend (1979-2010) for the high northern latitudes that is 26% larger than the Northern Hemisphere trend. The NDVI summer growth response to these changes is spatially complex and coincides with local dominance of cold temperature or moisture constraints to productivity. Longer NF seasons are predominantly enhancing productivity in cold temperature-constrained areas, whereas these effects are reduced or reversed in more moisture-constrained areas. Longer NF seasons also increase the atmospheric CO2 seasonal amplitude by enhancing both regional carbon uptake and emissions. We find that cold temperature constraints to northern growing seasons are relaxing, whereas potential benefits for productivity and carbon sink activity are becoming more dependent on the terrestrial water balance and supply of plant-available moisture needed to meet additional water use demands under a warming climate. © 2014 Taylor & Francis

A global evaluation of the regional spatial variability of column integrated CO 2 distributions

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/95294/1/jgrd14612.pd

Maximum likelihood estimation of covariance parameters for Bayesian atmospheric trace gas surface flux inversions

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/94664/1/jgrd12182.pd

Exploring the sensitivity of interannual basin-scale air-sea CO2 fluxes to variability in atmospheric dust deposition using ocean carbon cycle models and atmospheric CO2 inversions

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 112 (2007): G02012, doi:10.1029/2006JG000236.Estimates of sources/sinks of carbon dioxide (CO2) at the Earth's surface are commonly made using atmospheric CO2 inverse modeling, terrestrial and oceanic biogeochemical modeling, and inventory-based studies. In this study, we compare sea-air CO2 fluxes from the Time-Dependent Inverse (TDI) atmosphere model and the marine Biogeochemical Elemental Cycling (BEC) model to study the processes involved in ocean carbon cycling at subbasin scales. A dust generation and transport model, based on analyzed meteorology and terrestrial vegetation cover, is also used to estimate the interannual variability in dust and iron deposition to different ocean basins. Overall, a fairly good agreement is established between the TDI and BEC model results for the net annual patterns and seasonal cycle of sea-air CO2 exchange. Sensitivity studies with the ocean biogeochemical model using increased or reduced atmospheric iron inputs indicate the relative sensitivity of air-sea CO2 exchange. The simulated responses to changes in iron inputs are not instantaneous (peak response after ∼2−3 years). The TDI model derived seasonal cycles for the Southern Ocean (South Atlantic) are better matched by the BEC model by increasing (decreasing) iron inputs through atmospheric aerosols. Our results suggest that some of the interannual variability in TDI model air-sea CO2 fluxes during the past decade may be explainable by dust variability that relaxes/increases iron limitation in high-nitrate, low-chlorophyll (HNLC) ocean regions.S. C. Doney and N. Mahowald acknowledge support from NASA grant NNG05GG30G. J. K. Moore was funded by NSF grant OCE-0452972

Contribution of ocean, fossil fuel, land biosphere, and biomass burning carbon fluxes to seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric CO2

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 113 (2008): G01010, doi:10.1029/2007JG000408.Seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations was simulated using fluxes from fossil fuel, ocean and terrestrial biogeochemical models, and a tracer transport model with time-varying winds. The atmospheric CO2 variability resulting from these surface fluxes was compared to observations from 89 GLOBALVIEW monitoring stations. At northern hemisphere stations, the model simulations captured most of the observed seasonal cycle in atmospheric CO2, with the land tracer accounting for the majority of the signal. The ocean tracer was 3–6 months out of phase with the observed cycle at these stations and had a seasonal amplitude only ∼10% on average of observed. Model and observed interannual CO2 growth anomalies were only moderately well correlated in the northern hemisphere (R ∼ 0.4–0.8), and more poorly correlated in the southern hemisphere (R < 0.6). Land dominated the interannual variability (IAV) in the northern hemisphere, and biomass burning in particular accounted for much of the strong positive CO2 growth anomaly observed during the 1997–1998 El Niño event. The signals in atmospheric CO2 from the terrestrial biosphere extended throughout the southern hemisphere, but oceanic fluxes also exerted a strong influence there, accounting for roughly half of the IAV at many extratropical stations. However, the modeled ocean tracer was generally uncorrelated with observations in either hemisphere from 1979–2004, except during the weak El Niño/post-Pinatubo period of the early 1990s. During that time, model results suggested that the ocean may have accounted for 20–25% of the observed slowdown in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate.We acknowledge the support of NASA grant NNG05GG30G and NSF grant ATM0628472

An intercomparison of inverse models for estimating sources and sinks of CO2 using GOSAT measurements

This study presents the outcome of an inverse modeling intercomparison experiment on the use of total column CO2 retrievals from Greenhouse Gas Observing Satellite (GOSAT) for quantifying global sources and sinks of CO2. Eight research groups submitted inverse modeling results for the first year of GOSAT measurements. Inversions were carried out using only GOSAT data, a combination of GOSAT and surface measurements, and using only surface measurements. As expected, the most robust flux estimates are obtained at large scales (e.g., within 20% of the annual flux at the global scale), and they quickly diverge toward the scale of the subcontinental TRANSCOM regions and beyond (to >100% of the annual flux). We focus our analysis on a shift in the CO2 uptake over land from the Tropics toward the Northern Hemisphere Extra tropics of ∼1 PgC/yr when GOSAT data are used in the inversions. This shift is largely driven by TRANSCOM regions Europe and Northern Africa, showing, respectively, an increased uptake and release of 0.7 and 0.9 PgC/yr. Inversions using GOSAT data show a reduced gradient between midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and the Tropics, consistent with the latitudinal shift in carbon uptake. However, the reduced gradients degrade the agreement with background aircraft and surface measurements. To narrow the range of inversion-derived flux, estimates will require further efforts to understand the differences not only between the retrieval schemes but also between inverse models, as their contributions to the overall uncertainty are estimated to be of similar magnitude

Africa and the global carbon cycle

The African continent has a large and growing role in the global carbon cycle, with potentially important climate change implications. However, the sparse observation network in and around the African continent means that Africa is one of the weakest links in our understanding of the global carbon cycle. Here, we combine data from regional and global inventories as well as forward and inverse model analyses to appraise what is known about Africa's continental-scale carbon dynamics. With low fossil emissions and productivity that largely compensates respiration, land conversion is Africa's primary net carbon release, much of it through burning of forests. Savanna fire emissions, though large, represent a short-term source that is offset by ensuing regrowth. While current data suggest a near zero decadal-scale carbon balance, interannual climate fluctuations (especially drought) induce sizeable variability in net ecosystem productivity and savanna fire emissions such that Africa is a major source of interannual variability in global atmospheric CO(2). Considering the continent's sizeable carbon stocks, their seemingly high vulnerability to anticipated climate and land use change, as well as growing populations and industrialization, Africa's carbon emissions and their interannual variability are likely to undergo substantial increases through the 21st century