Employment Inequalities

This paper documents the employment disadvantage faced by the less qualified part of the labor force and examines the factors that influence the differing extent of this disadvantage across OECD countries. We argue that employment rates for quartiles of the population ranked by educational qualification provide the best measure of employment disadvantage. We show that differences in these employment rates for the most- and least-educated quartiles vary substantially within Europe, but are not on average higher than those in the USA. The least qualified suffer the greatest employment disadvantage in countries in which the overall employment rates are low and, for men, the literacy test scores for the least qualified are relatively low. A high level of imports from the South appears to be associated with greater employment disadvantage, but there is no discernible tendency for a high level of wage dispersion, low benefits, or weak employment protection legislation to be associated with greater employment disadvantage. Labor market flexibility has not been the route by which some OECD countries have managed to minimize the employment disadvantage of the least qualified.

"Employment Inequalities"

This paper documents the employment disadvantage faced by the less qualified part of the labor force and examines the factors that influence the differing extent of this disadvantage across OECD countries. We argue that employment rates for quartiles of the population ranked by educational qualification provide the best m easure of employment disadvantage. We show that differences in these employment rates for the most- and least-educated quartiles vary substantially within Europe, but are not on average higher than those in the USA. The least qualified suffer the greatest employment disadvantage in countries in which the overall employment rates are low and, for men, the literacy test scores for the least qualified are relatively low. A high level of imports from the South appears to be associated with greater employment disadvantage, but there is no discernible tendency for a high level of wage dispersion, low benefits, or weak employment protection legislation to be associated with greater employment disadvantage. Labor market flexibility has not been the route by which some OECD countries have managed to minimize the employment disadvantage of the least qualified

Unemployment and inequality

Analysis of contemporary unemployment has increasingly focussed on the position of the least skilled. The deterioration in their labour market position is first situated in the context of structural trends in the labour market. The development of labour market inequality in the 1980s is summarised and the deteriorating employment position of the unskilled, both in terms of registered unemployment, withdrawal from the labour market and falling relative earnings is documented. Explanations for these trends are discussed, with the distinction being drawn between those which focus on changes in technology and trade patterns and those which see declining overall demand for labour as the primary factor. Alternative policy responses are surveyed, with emphasis on their distributional implications. -- Analysen über die aktuelle Arbeitslosigkeit konzentrieren sich zunehmend auf die Situation der geringer Qualifizierten. Die Verschlechterung ihrer Arbeitsmarktposition rührt vor allem von den strukturellen Veränderungen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt her. Die Entwicklung der Ungleichheit auf dem Arbeitsmarkt wahrend der 80er Jahre wird zusammenfassend dargestellt und gleichzeitig die Verschlechterung der Arbeitsmarktposition der Ungelernten an Hand der Indikatoren ,,Registrierte Arbeitslosigkeit, ,,Rückzug vom Arbeitsmarkt und ,,Fallende relative Einkommen dokumentiert. Erklärungen für diese Trends werden diskutiert, wobei ein Unterschied gemacht wird zwischen denjenigen Erklärungen, die sich auf Veränderungen in Technologie- und Handelsmustern konzentrieren und den Erklärungen, die in der allgemein zurückgehenden Nachfrage nach Arbeit den Hauptgrund sehen. Unterschiedliche Politikreaktionen werden, vor allem im Hinblick auf ihre Verteilungswirkungen, vorgestellt.

Social democracy and full employment

Full employment was the centrepiece of the economic policy of social democracy in the post-war period. Whilst the role of Keynesianism in policy making may be exaggerated, it offered the prospect of maintaining full employment without any section of society having to pay. Problems with the foreign balance and with the budget deficits, however, may require that some part of society has to pay with reduced consumption for full employment. This will tend to sharpen the distributive conflicts which, as Kalecki argued, are endemic to full employment capitalism and which eventually rendered it unsustainable by undermining profitability and the dynamism of private investment. The demand necessary to sustain full employment can be maintained by a balanced budget expansion provided the political support can be secured for the higher taxation and provided the institutions for containing distributional conflict can be developed. -- Vollbeschäftigung war das Hauptziel sozialdemokratischer Wirtschaftspolitik in der Nachkriegsära. Auch wenn die Rolle des Keynesianismus hinsichtlich der praktischen Politik überschätzt werden könnte, so stellte er doch in Aussicht, Vollbeschäftigung zu erhalten, ohne daß dies auf Kosten eines Teils der Gesellschaft ging. Im Falle einer unausgeglichenen Außenhandelsbilanz und bei Haushaltsdefiziten könnte es natürlich dazu kommen, daß für einige Gruppen in der Gesellschaft Vollbeschäftigung nur um den Preis eines verminderten Konsumniveaus zu haben ist. Dies könnte dann zu einer Verschärfung von Verteilungskonflikten führen, die, so Kalecki, zu einem Vollbeschäftigungskapitalismus gehören und die schließlich ein Stadium erreichen könnten, in dem durch Aushöhlung der Profitabilität und der Investitionsdynamik die Selbsterhaltungskräfte verschwänden. Die für die Sicherung der Vollbeschäftigung notwendige Nachfrage kann durch eine ausgewogene Budgetausweitung erhalten bleiben, vorausgesetzt, die notwendige politische Unterstützung für eine höhere Besteuerung kann gesichert und institutionelle Regelungen für eine Eindämmung der Verteilungskonflikte können entwickelt werden.

Export Market Performance of OECD countries: an empirical examination of the role of cost competitiveness

This paper investigates the relationship between export market shares and relative unit labour costs using a long panel of twelve manufacturing industries across fourteen OECD countries. We ask two questions: (a) how sensitive are export market shares to changes in relative costs and (b) what determines the degree of sensitivity? Although both costs and embodied technology are important, we find that neither can fully explain changing export positions. We explore whether the residual country-specific trends might be linked to Ѥeep' structural features of economies such as human capital investment and national ownership patterns. On the second question, the sensitivity of exports to labour costs is lower in high tech industries and in core ERM countries. The industry elasticities have increased over time, especially in industries subject to increasing product market competition. We discuss the implications of these findings for European Monetary Union.

Predicting Criminal Recidivism in Paroled Queensland Prisoners: Findings From a Multinomial Ordered Probit Model

A multinomial ordered probit model is used to predict post-release performance in a sample of Queensland prisoners released between January 1992 and December 1994. Post-release performance is defined in terms of the seriousness of parole breaches and/or reoffences over the length of the parole period or until April 1996. The paper examines two issues. First, it evaluates the statistical significance of a number of custodial and socioeconomic variables on the likelihood of a parole breach or reoffence. Factors analysed include family composition, age, occupation, ethnicity, the number of events in custody, the number of prison violations and the length of sentence of the most recent custodial episode. Second, the study compares the role of these factors in determining either breaches of parole or the more serious outcome of readmittance through criminal activity. All other things being equal, the elasticity of readmission with respect to the set of explanatory variables varies markedly according to whether readmission is through a parole breach or through actual recidivist behaviour

Are Protective Labor Market Institutions Really at the Root of Unemployment? A Critical Perspective on the Statistical Evidence

This report debunks the myth that labor market protections, such as unions and unemployment benefits, are responsible for high European unemployment rates.

Export Market Performance of OECD countries: an empirical examination of the role of cost competitiveness

This paper investigates the relationship between export market shares and relative unit labour costs using a long panel of twelve manufacturing industries across fourteen OECD countries. We ask two questions: (a) how sensitive are export market shares to changes in relative costs and (b) what determines the degree of sensitivity? Although both costs and embodied technology are important, we find that neither can fully explain changing export positions. We explore whether the residual country-specific trends might be linked to Ѥeep' structural features of economies such as human capital investment and national ownership patterns. On the second question, the sensitivity of exports to labour costs is lower in high tech industries and in core ERM countries. The industry elasticities have increased over time, especially in industries subject to increasing product market competition. We discuss the implications of these findings for European Monetary Union

The longitudinal association between external locus of control, social cognition and adolescent psychopathology

Purpose To investigate the longitudinal associations between social cognitive ability an external locus of control (externality) and adolescent psychopathology. Methods 7058 participants from a prospective population-based cohort provided data on externality, social communication and emotion perception between 7 to 16 years and psychotic experiences and depressive symptoms at 12 and 18 years. Bivariate probit modelling was used to investigate associations between these risk factors and psychopathological outcomes. Results Externality was associated with psychopathology at 12 (psychotic experiences OR1.23 95%CI 1.14,1.33; depression OR1.12 95%CI 1.02,1.22) and 18 years (psychotic experiences OR1.38 95% CI1.23,1.55; depression OR1.40 95% CI1.28,1.52). Poor social communication was associated with depression at both ages (12 years OR1.22 95%CI 1.11,1.34; 18 years OR1.21 95%CI 1.10,1.33) and marginally associated with psychotic experiences. There was marginal evidence of a larger association between externality and psychotic experiences at 12 years (p=0.06) and between social communication and depression at 12 years (p=0.03). Conclusions Externality was more strongly associated with psychotic experiences. At 18 years change in externality between 8 and 16 years was associated with a larger increase in the risk of depression. Poor social communication was more strongly associated with depression