Predicting the long-term impact of antiretroviral therapy scale-up on population incidence of tuberculosis.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on long-term population-level tuberculosis disease (TB) incidence in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We used a mathematical model to consider the effect of different assumptions about life expectancy and TB risk during long-term ART under alternative scenarios for trends in population HIV incidence and ART coverage. RESULTS: All the scenarios we explored predicted that the widespread introduction of ART would initially reduce population-level TB incidence. However, many modelled scenarios projected a rebound in population-level TB incidence after around 20 years. This rebound was predicted to exceed the TB incidence present before ART scale-up if decreases in HIV incidence during the same period were not sufficiently rapid or if the protective effect of ART on TB was not sustained. Nevertheless, most scenarios predicted a reduction in the cumulative TB incidence when accompanied by a relative decline in HIV incidence of more than 10% each year. CONCLUSIONS: Despite short-term benefits of ART scale-up on population TB incidence in sub-Saharan Africa, longer-term projections raise the possibility of a rebound in TB incidence. This highlights the importance of sustaining good adherence and immunologic response to ART and, crucially, the need for effective HIV preventive interventions, including early widespread implementation of ART

Towards segmentation and spatial alignment of the human embryonic brain using deep learning for atlas-based registration

We propose an unsupervised deep learning method for atlas based registration to achieve segmentation and spatial alignment of the embryonic brain in a single framework. Our approach consists of two sequential networks with a specifically designed loss function to address the challenges in 3D first trimester ultrasound. The first part learns the affine transformation and the second part learns the voxelwise nonrigid deformation between the target image and the atlas. We trained this network end-to-end and validated it against a ground truth on synthetic datasets designed to resemble the challenges present in 3D first trimester ultrasound. The method was tested on a dataset of human embryonic ultrasound volumes acquired at 9 weeks gestational age, which showed alignment of the brain in some cases and gave insight in open challenges for the proposed method. We conclude that our method is a promising approach towards fully automated spatial alignment and segmentation of embryonic brains in 3D ultrasound

V_H replacement in rearranged immunoglobulin genes

Examples suggesting that all or part of the V<sub>H</sub> segment of a rearranged V<sub>H</sub>DJ<sub>H</sub> may be replaced by all or part of another V<sub>H</sub> have been appearing since the 1980s. Evidence has been presented of two rather different types of replacement. One of these has gained acceptance and has now been clearly demonstrated to occur. The other, proposed more recently, has not yet gained general acceptance because the same effect can be produced by polymerase chain reaction artefact. We review both types of replacement including a critical examination of evidence for the latter. The first type involves RAG proteins and recombination signal sequences (RSS) and occurs in immature B cells. The second was also thought to be brought about by RAG proteins and RSS. However, it has been reported in hypermutating cells which are not thought to express RAG proteins but in which activation-induced cytidine deaminase (AID) has recently been shown to initiate homologous recombination. Re-examination of the published sequences reveals AID target sites in V<sub>H</sub>-V<sub>H</sub> junction regions and examples that resemble gene conversion

Noisy Monte Carlo: Convergence of Markov chains with approximate transition kernels

Monte Carlo algorithms often aim to draw from a distribution $\pi$ by simulating a Markov chain with transition kernel $P$ such that $\pi$ is invariant under $P$. However, there are many situations for which it is impractical or impossible to draw from the transition kernel $P$. For instance, this is the case with massive datasets, where is it prohibitively expensive to calculate the likelihood and is also the case for intractable likelihood models arising from, for example, Gibbs random fields, such as those found in spatial statistics and network analysis. A natural approach in these cases is to replace $P$ by an approximation $\hat{P}$. Using theory from the stability of Markov chains we explore a variety of situations where it is possible to quantify how 'close' the chain given by the transition kernel $\hat{P}$ is to the chain given by $P$. We apply these results to several examples from spatial statistics and network analysis.Comment: This version: results extended to non-uniformly ergodic Markov chain

Incidence of WHO stage 3 and 4 conditions following initiation of Anti-Retroviral Therapy in resource limited settings

To determine the incidence of WHO clinical stage 3 and 4 conditions during early anti-retroviral therapy (ART) in resource limited settings (RLS)

Who will use pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and why?: Understanding PrEP awareness and acceptability amongst men who have sex with men in the UK – a mixed methods study

Background: Recent clinical trials suggest that pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) may reduce HIV transmission by up to 86% for men who have sex with men (MSM), whilst relatively high levels of PrEP acceptability have been reported to date. This study examines PrEP awareness amongst sub-groups of MSM communities and acceptability amongst MSM in a low prevalence region (Scotland, UK), using a mixed methods design. Methods: Quantitative surveys of n = 690 MSM recruited online via social and sociosexual media were analysed using descriptive statistics and multivariate logistic regression. In addition, n = 10 in-depth qualitative interviews with MSM were analysed thematically. Results: Under one third (29.7%) of MSM had heard of PrEP, with awareness related to living in large cities, degree level education, commercial gay scene use and reporting an HIV test in the last year. Just under half of participants (47.8%) were likely to use PrEP if it were available but there was no relationship between PrEP acceptability and previous PrEP awareness. Younger men (18–25 years) and those who report higher risk UAI were significantly more likely to say they would use PrEP. Qualitative data described specific PrEP scenarios, illustrating how risk, patterns of sexual practice and social relationships could affect motivation for and nature of PrEP use. Conclusion: These findings suggest substantial interest PrEP amongst MSM reporting HIV risk behaviours in Scotland. Given the Proud results, there is a strong case to investigate PrEP implementation within the UK. However, it appears that disparities in awareness have already emerged along traditional indicators of inequality. Our research identifies the need for comprehensive support when PrEP is introduced, including a key online component, to ensure equity of awareness across diverse MSM communities (e.g. by geography, education, gay scene use and HIV proximity), as well as to responding to the diverse informational and sexual health needs of all MSM communities

Tuberculosis retreatment 'others' in comparison with classical retreatment cases; a retrospective cohort review.

BACKGROUND: Many of the countries in sub-Saharan Africa are still largely dependent on microscopy as the mainstay for diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) including patients with previous history of TB treatment. The available guidance in management of TB retreatment cases is focused on bacteriologically confirmed TB retreatment cases leaving out those classified as retreatment 'others'. Retreatment 'others' refer to all TB cases who were previously treated but with unknown outcome of that previous treatment or who have returned to treatment with bacteriologically negative pulmonary or extra-pulmonary TB. This study was conducted in 11 regional referral hospitals (RRHs) serving high burden TB districts in Uganda to determine the profile and treatment success of TB retreatment 'others' in comparison with the classical retreatment cases. METHODS: A retrospective cohort review of routinely collected National TB and Leprosy Program (NTLP) facility data from 1 January to 31 December 2010. This study uses the term classical retreatment cases to refer to a combined group of bacteriologically confirmed relapse, return after failure and return after loss to follow-up cases as a distinct group from retreatment 'others'. Distribution of categorical characteristics were compared using Chi-squared test for difference between proportions. The log likelihood ratio test was used to assess the independent contribution of type of retreatment, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status, age group and sex to the models. RESULTS: Of the 6244 TB cases registered at the study sites, 733 (11.7%) were retreatment cases. Retreatment 'others' constituted 45.5% of retreatment cases. Co-infection with HIV was higher among retreatment 'others' (70.9%) than classical retreatment cases (53.5%). Treatment was successful in 410 (56.2%) retreatment cases. Retreatment 'others' were associated with reduced odds of success (AOR = 0.44, 95% CI 0.22,0.88) compared to classical cases. Lost to follow up was the commonest adverse outcome (38% of adverse outcomes) in all retreatment cases. Type of retreatment case, HIV status, and age were independently associated with treatment success. CONCLUSION: TB retreatment 'others' constitute a significant proportion of retreatment cases, with higher HIV prevalence and worse treatment success. There is need to review the diagnosis and management of retreatment 'others'

Fitness differences suppress the number of mating types in evolving isogamous species

Sexual reproduction is not always synonymous with the existence of two morphologically different sexes; isogamous species produce sex cells of equal size, typically falling into multiple distinct self-incompatible classes, termed mating types. A long-standing open question in evolutionary biology is: what governs the number of these mating types across species? Simple theoretical arguments imply an advantage to rare types, suggesting the number of types should grow consistently; however, empirical observations are very different. While some isogamous species exhibit thousands of mating types, such species are exceedingly rare, and most have fewer than 10. In this paper, we present a mathematical analysis to quantify the role of fitness variation—characterized by different mortality rates—in determining the number of mating types emerging in simple evolutionary models. We predict that the number of mating types decreases as the variance of mortality increases

The intellectual influence of economic journals: quality versus quantity

The evaluation of scientific output has a key role in the allocation of research funds and academic positions. Decisions are often based on quality indicators for academic journals, and over the years, a handful of scoring methods have been proposed for this purpose. Discussing the most prominent methods (de facto standards) we show that they do not distinguish quality from quantity at article level. The systematic bias we find is analytically tractable and implies that the methods are manipulable. We introduce modified methods that correct for this bias, and use them to provide rankings of economic journals. Our methodology is transparent; our results are replicable

Simple, Fast and Accurate Implementation of the Diffusion Approximation Algorithm for Stochastic Ion Channels with Multiple States

The phenomena that emerge from the interaction of the stochastic opening and closing of ion channels (channel noise) with the non-linear neural dynamics are essential to our understanding of the operation of the nervous system. The effects that channel noise can have on neural dynamics are generally studied using numerical simulations of stochastic models. Algorithms based on discrete Markov Chains (MC) seem to be the most reliable and trustworthy, but even optimized algorithms come with a non-negligible computational cost. Diffusion Approximation (DA) methods use Stochastic Differential Equations (SDE) to approximate the behavior of a number of MCs, considerably speeding up simulation times. However, model comparisons have suggested that DA methods did not lead to the same results as in MC modeling in terms of channel noise statistics and effects on excitability. Recently, it was shown that the difference arose because MCs were modeled with coupled activation subunits, while the DA was modeled using uncoupled activation subunits. Implementations of DA with coupled subunits, in the context of a specific kinetic scheme, yielded similar results to MC. However, it remained unclear how to generalize these implementations to different kinetic schemes, or whether they were faster than MC algorithms. Additionally, a steady state approximation was used for the stochastic terms, which, as we show here, can introduce significant inaccuracies. We derived the SDE explicitly for any given ion channel kinetic scheme. The resulting generic equations were surprisingly simple and interpretable - allowing an easy and efficient DA implementation. The algorithm was tested in a voltage clamp simulation and in two different current clamp simulations, yielding the same results as MC modeling. Also, the simulation efficiency of this DA method demonstrated considerable superiority over MC methods.Comment: 32 text pages, 10 figures, 1 supplementary text + figur