Impact of snow variability on the Swiss winter tourism sector: implications in an era of climate change

With its numerous mountain regions and its well developed winter tourism infrastructures, Switzerland is a country whose tourism sector is known to be sensitive to snowpack variability. With climate change—which is predicted to have negative impacts on snow depths and duration—the need for accurately assessing the sensitivity of winter tourism consumption to changing snow conditions is reinforced. Taking advantage of newly available data on visitation rates at Swiss ski areas, we analyze the effect of snow conditions on skier visits using standard panel data regression techniques. We assume the magnitude of this effect to be conditional on the level of snowmaking investments. Higher snowmaking investments should lead to a lower sensitivity. Our results validate this hypothesis and also shed light on the competitive interactions between lower and higher lying ski areas located in the same tourism region. In fact, our results show that better snow conditions in the former reduces visitation rates in the latter. Eventually, we find that ski areas benefiting from sunny conditions tend to have, ceteris paribus, more skier visits. This suggests additional impacts if climate change were to modify sunshine duration in mountain region

Quantum mechanics and geodesic deviation in the brane world

We investigate the induced geodesic deviation equations in the brane world models, in which all the matter forces except gravity are confined on the 3-brane. Also, the Newtonian limit of induced geodesic deviation equation is studied. We show that in the first Randall-Sundrum model the Bohr-Sommerfeld quantization rule is as a result of consistency between the geodesic and geodesic deviation equations. This indicates that the path of test particle is made up of integral multiples of a fundamental Compton-type unit of length $h/mc$.Comment: 5 pages, no figure

The tobacco industry's past role in weight control related to smoking

Background: Smoking is thought to produce an appetite-suppressing effect by many smokers. Thus, the fear of body weight gain often outweighs the perception of health benefits associated with smoking cessation, particularly in adolescents. We examined whether the tobacco industry played a role in appetite and body weight control related to smoking and smoking cessation. Methods: We performed a systematic search within the archives of six major US and UK tobacco companies (American Tobacco, Philip Morris, RJ Reynolds, Lorillard, Brown & Williamson and British American Tobacco) that were Defendants in tobacco litigation settled in 1998. Findings are dated from 1949 to 1999. Results: The documents revealed the strategies planned and used by the industry to enhance effects of smoking on weight and appetite, mostly by chemical modifications of cigarettes contents. Appetite-suppressant molecules, such as tartaric acid and 2-acetylpyridine were added to some cigarettes. Conclusion: These tobacco companies played an active and not disclaimed role in the anti-appetite effects of smoking, at least in the past, by adding appetite-suppressant molecules into their cigarette

Leptin and smoking cessation: secondary analyses of a randomized controlled trial assessing physical activity as an aid for smoking cessation.

BACKGROUND: Smokers have a lower body weight compared to non-smokers. Smoking cessation is associated with weight gain in most cases. A hormonal mechanism of action might be implicated in weight variations related to smoking, and leptin might be implicated. We made secondary analyses of an RCT, with a hypothesis-free exploratory approach to study the dynamic of leptin following smoking cessation. METHODS: We measured serum leptin levels among 271 sedentary smokers willing to quit who participated in a randomized controlled trial assessing a 9-week moderate-intensity physical activity intervention as an aid for smoking cessation. We adjusted leptin for body fat levels. We performed linear regressions to test for an association between leptin levels and the study group over time. RESULTS: One year after smoking cessation, the mean serum leptin change was +3.23 mg/l (SD 4.89) in the control group and +1.25 mg/l (SD 4.86) in the intervention group (p of the difference < 0.05). When adjusted for body fat levels, leptin was higher in the control group than in the intervention group (p of the difference < 0.01). The mean weight gain was +2.91 (SD 6.66) Kg in the intervention and +3.33 (SD 4.47) Kg in the control groups, respectively (p not significant). CONCLUSIONS: Serum leptin levels significantly increased after smoking cessation, in spite of substantial weight gain. The leptin dynamic might be different in chronic tobacco users who quit smoking, and physical activity might impact the dynamic of leptin in such a situation. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT00521391

Evaluation de l'impact des nouvelles Directives et recommandations architecturales des établissements médico-sociaux vaudois (DAEMS) sur la satisfaction des usagers

L'environnement construit contribue à influencer la santé des individus, selon l'Organisation Mondiale de la Santé. L'architecture des établissements médico-sociaux (EMS) peut, elle aussi, produire un impact sur le bien-être et la satisfaction des résident-e-s et des autres usagers. Dans le canton de Vaud, des normes architecturales de construction des EMS (les Directives et recommandations architecturales des établissements médico-sociaux, DAEMS) ont été créées en 2003 afin d'optimiser la conception des EMS par rapport aux besoins des usagers. Notre étude a pour but de vérifier si les EMS construits selon les DAEMS sont associés avec une satisfaction accrue des usagers par rapport aux EMS qui n'ont pas été construits selon ces directives. "Le but de la présente étude est de vérifier si le fait de construire les EMS selon les DAEMS est associé avec une plus grande satisfaction chez les usagers par rapport aux EMS qui n'ont pas été construits selon les DAEMS. Nous avons effectué une comparaison de la satisfaction auprès des trois-publics qui sont les principaux usagers des EMS, à savoir les résident-e-s, leurs proches de référence, et les professionnel-le-s en EMS. Trente EMS ont participé à l'étude, à savoir dix construits selon les DAEMS (EMS « DAEMS »), et vingt qui n'ont pas été construits selon les DAEMS (EMS « non-DAEMS »). Ce rapport a été défini pour garantir une bonne validité statistique des résultats

Seasonal variation of overall and cardiovascular mortality: a study in 19 countries from different geographic locations.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) mortality has been shown to follow a seasonal pattern. Several studies suggested several possible determinants of this pattern, including misclassification of causes of deaths. We aimed at assessing seasonality in overall, CVD, cancer and non-CVD/non-cancer mortality using data from 19 countries from different latitudes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Monthly mortality data were compiled from 19 countries, amounting to over 54 million deaths. We calculated ratios of the observed to the expected numbers of deaths in the absence of a seasonal pattern. Seasonal variation (peak to nadir difference) for overall and cause-specific (CVD, cancer or non-CVD/non-cancer) mortality was analyzed using the cosinor function model. Mortality from overall, CVD and non-CVD/non-cancer showed a consistent seasonal pattern. In both hemispheres, the number of deaths was higher than expected in winter. In countries close to the Equator the seasonal pattern was considerably lower for mortality from any cause. For CVD mortality, the peak to nadir differences ranged from 0.185 to 0.466 in the Northern Hemisphere, from 0.087 to 0.108 near the Equator, and from 0.219 to 0.409 in the Southern Hemisphere. For cancer mortality, the seasonal variation was nonexistent in most countries. CONCLUSIONS: In countries with seasonal variation, mortality from overall, CVD and non-CVD/non-cancer show a seasonal pattern with mortality being higher in winter than in summer. Conversely, cancer mortality shows no substantial seasonality

Impact of snow variability on the Swiss winter tourism sector: implications in an era of climate change

With its numerous mountain regions and its well developed winter tourism infrastructures, Switzerland is a country whose tourism sector is known to be sensitive to snowpack variability. With climate change—which is predicted to have negative impacts on snow depths and duration—the need for accurately assessing the sensitivity of winter tourism consumption to changing snow conditions is reinforced. Taking advantage of newly available data on visitation rates at Swiss ski areas, we analyze the effect of snow conditions on skier visits using standard panel data regression techniques. We assume the magnitude of this effect to be conditional on the level of snowmaking investments. Higher snowmaking investments should lead to a lower sensitivity. Our results validate this hypothesis and also shed light on the competitive interactions between lower and higher lying ski areas located in the same tourism region. In fact, our results show that better snow conditions in the former reduces visitation rates in the latter. Eventually, we find that ski areas benefiting from sunny conditions tend to have, ceteris paribus, more skier visits. This suggests additional impacts if climate change were to modify sunshine duration in mountain regions

Adapting ski area operations to a warmer climate in the Swiss Alps through snowmaking investments and efficiency improvements

Economic consequences of climate change for the Swiss winter tourism have been assessed in two studies. Though estimates of the potential annual costs highly differ between them, they however agree on two points. On the one hand, winter tourism will be one of the most affected economic sectors. On the other hand, impacts of climate change on this sector will be very disruptive. In this context, adaptation strategies must play an important role in the Swiss winter tourism sector in order to alleviate these impacts. When thinking of technical adaptation measures, snowmaking facilities very often come to the fore. Hence, our first task in this thesis work was to picture the achieved level of investments towards this kind of facility. The umbrella organization of the cableway sector indicates that 42 km2 (19% of the total slopes' area) which represents roughly 1400 km of ski slopes could already be snowed artificially in 2005. In the three most important Swiss ski regions (Valais, Grisons and Bern), we found that the percentage of the total slopes' area that could be snowed in 2005 was lying in the same range (i.e. from 18% to 22%). With respect to the numerous investments that will probably be planned in the years to come, an important issue deals with the commitment of cantonal authorities in the adaptation process carried out by the ski area operation companies located on their territory. Are these commitments different from one canton to another and how could they evolve in the short and mid-term? What are the consequences of regional differences in the authorities' commitments for the companies' vulnerability towards climate change? Among the reviewed cantons, we found that Bern is clearly the canton where the investments are less dependent to the authorities' support. On the contrary, Fribourg, Vaud, Ticino and (to a lesser extent) Saint-Gall are the cantons in which ski area operation companies are most dependent on authorities' support for their snowmaking investments. Based on these results, it was however difficult to determine clear-cut consequences for the vulnerability of companies located in different regions. In addition, we found that companies with transport revenues ranging between 1 to 5 Mio CHF have constituted the core of the beneficiaries. While small companies are generally not eligible for large support towards snowmaking investments, the highest companies of the sector were only rarely recipient of authorities' support mainly because they did not need it to finance their investment. Despite the different forms and features of financial support provided in the different cantons, we have also derived a unique value for the financial support provided at the cantonal and federal levels towards snowmaking investments in Switzerland. This overall financial support (overall equivalent subsidy) has been estimated at 12.5 Mio CHF (state at the end of 2006). After having analyzed to which extent public authorities have already supported snowmaking investments and verified under which conditions these facilities will continue to be supported in the future, a crucial question was then to determine whether snowmaking investments could actually reduce the potential costs of climate change. This question arises since snowmaking facilities implies large investment and operating costs. In order to answer this question, several statistical models of the ski area operation companies' operating results have been assessed. While such models were only estimated with the data concerning the 2003/04 and 2004/05 winter seasons, estimation results derived from them nonetheless prepare the ground for assessing more precisely the impacts of snowmaking investments under climate change. First, our results show that the partial effect of snowmaking investments on EBITDA is positive but tends to decrease for higher level of investments. Secondly, we were also able to show to which extent additional snowmaking investments could have potentially improved the financial situation of Swiss ski area operation companies. Under the conditions of the winter season 2003/04, 69.5% of the Swiss companies operating more than 15 kilometers of ski slopes would have increased their net income with a one kilometer increase in snowmaking facilities. Because we have tried to explain or predict the companies' EBITDA, variables other than those related to snowmaking investments were added in our statistical models. This feature has allowed us discussing ongoing issues such as the impacts of horizontal reconfiguration, modernization of the transport facilities and increase in the ski resorts' lodging capacity on the ski area operation companies' profitability. Besides snowmaking facilities, we have also analyzed efficiency improvements of companies as another potential adaptation measure to climate change. For a sample of 20 valaisan companies, we have evaluated their performance using a DEA approach. However, few firms were rated as inefficient when making use of this approach. This result is mainly due to the limited number of companies included in our analysis. Indeed, gathering data was not an easy task for this research