Nonlinear regional warming with increasing CO₂ concentration

When considering adaptation measures and global climate mitigation goals, stakeholders need regional-scale climate projections, including the range of plausible warming rates. To assist these stakeholders, it is important to understand whether some locations may see disproportionately high or low warming from additional forcing above targets such as 2 K (ref. 1). There is a need to narrow uncertainty2 in this nonlinear warming, which requires understanding how climate changes as forcings increase from medium to high levels. However, quantifying and understanding regional nonlinear processes is challenging. Here we show that regional-scale warming can be strongly superlinear to successive CO2 doublings, using five different climate models. Ensemble-mean warming is superlinear over most land locations. Further, the inter-model spread tends to be amplified at higher forcing levels, as nonlinearities grow—especially when considering changes per kelvin of global warming. Regional nonlinearities in surface warming arise from nonlinearities in global-mean radiative balance, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, surface snow/ice cover and evapotranspiration. For robust adaptation and mitigation advice, therefore, potentially avoidable climate change (the difference between business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios) and unavoidable climate change (change under strong mitigation scenarios) may need different analysis methods

Pathogen- and Host-Directed Antileishmanial Effects Mediated by Polyhexanide (PHMB)

BACKGROUND:Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical disease caused by protozoan parasites of the genus Leishmania. CL causes enormous suffering in many countries worldwide. There is no licensed vaccine against CL, and the chemotherapy options show limited efficacy and high toxicity. Localization of the parasites inside host cells is a barrier to most standard chemo- and immune-based interventions. Hence, novel drugs, which are safe, effective and readily accessible to third-world countries and/or drug delivery technologies for effective CL treatments are desperately needed. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:Here we evaluated the antileishmanial properties and delivery potential of polyhexamethylene biguanide (PHMB; polyhexanide), a widely used antimicrobial and wound antiseptic, in the Leishmania model. PHMB showed an inherent antileishmanial activity at submicromolar concentrations. Our data revealed that PHMB kills Leishmania major (L. major) via a dual mechanism involving disruption of membrane integrity and selective chromosome condensation and damage. PHMB's DNA binding and host cell entry properties were further exploited to improve the delivery and immunomodulatory activities of unmethylated cytosine-phosphate-guanine oligodeoxynucleotides (CpG ODN). PHMB spontaneously bound CpG ODN, forming stable nanopolyplexes that enhanced uptake of CpG ODN, potentiated antimicrobial killing and reduced host cell toxicity of PHMB. CONCLUSIONS:Given its low cost and long history of safe topical use, PHMB holds promise as a drug for CL therapy and delivery vehicle for nucleic acid immunomodulators

P. falciparum and P. vivax Epitope-Focused VLPs Elicit Sterile Immunity to Blood Stage Infections

In order to design P. falciparum preerythrocytic vaccine candidates, a library of circumsporozoite (CS) T and B cell epitopes displayed on the woodchuck hepatitis virus core antigen (WHcAg) VLP platform was produced. To test the protective efficacy of the WHcAg-CS VLPs, hybrid CS P. berghei/P. falciparum (Pb/Pf) sporozoites were used to challenge immunized mice. VLPs carrying 1 or 2 different CS repeat B cell epitopes and 3 VLPs carrying different CS non-repeat B cell epitopes elicited high levels of anti-insert antibodies (Abs). Whereas, VLPs carrying CS repeat B cell epitopes conferred 98% protection of the liver against a 10,000 Pb/Pf sporozoite challenge, VLPs carrying the CS non-repeat B cell eptiopes were minimally-to-non-protective. One-to-three CS-specific CD4/CD8 T cell sites were also fused to VLPs, which primed CS-specific as well as WHcAg-specific T cells. However, a VLP carrying only the 3 T cell domains failed to protect against a sporozoite challenge, indicating a requirement for anti-CS repeat Abs. A VLP carrying 2 CS repeat B cell epitopes and 3 CS T cell sites in alum adjuvant elicited high titer anti-CS Abs (endpoint dilution titer \u3e1x106) and provided 80–100% protection against blood stage malaria. Using a similar strategy, VLPs were constructed carrying P. vivax CS repeat B cell epitopes (WHc-Pv-78), which elicited high levels of anti-CS Abs and conferred 99% protection of the liver against a 10,000 Pb/Pv sporozoite challenge and elicited sterile immunity to blood stage infection. These results indicate that immunization with epitope-focused VLPs carrying selected B and T cell epitopes from the P.falciparum and P. vivax CS proteins can elicit sterile immunity against blood stage malaria. Hybrid WHcAg-CS VLPs could provide the basis for a bivalent P. falciparum/P. vivax malaria vaccine

Uncertainties in steric sea level change estimation during the satellite altimeter era: concepts and practices

This article presents a review of current practice in estimating steric sea level change, focussed on the treatment of uncertainty. Steric sea level change is the contribution to the change in sea level arising from the dependence of density on temperature and salinity. It is a significant component of sea level rise and a reflection of changing ocean heat content. However tracking these steric changes remains still a significant challenge for the scientific community. We review the importance of understanding the uncertainty in estimates of steric sea level change. Relevant concepts of uncertainty are discussed and illustrated with the example of observational uncertainty propagation from a single profile of temperature and salinity measurements to steric height. We summarise and discuss the recent literature on methodologies and techniques used to estimate steric sea level in the context of the treatment of uncertainty. Our conclusions are that progress in quantifying steric sea level uncertainty will benefit from: greater clarity and transparency in published discussions of uncertainty, including exploitation of international standards for quantifying and expressing uncertainty in measurement; and the development of community ‘recipes’ for quantifying the error covariances in observations and from sparse sampling, and for estimating and propagating uncertainty across spatio-temporal scales

An ensemble of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses from the MyOcean project

A set of four eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses produced in the framework of the MyOcean project have been compared over the altimetry period 1993–2011. The main differences among the reanalyses used here come from the data assimilation scheme implemented to control the ocean state by inserting reprocessed observations of sea surface temperature (SST), in situ temperature and salinity profiles, sea level anomaly and sea-ice concentration. A first objective of this work includes assessing the interannual variability and trends for a series of parameters, usually considered in the community as essential ocean variables: SST, sea surface salinity, temperature and salinity averaged over meaningful layers of the water column, sea level, transports across pre-defined sections, and sea ice parameters. The eddy-permitting nature of the global reanalyses allows also to estimate eddy kinetic energy. The results show that in general there is a good consistency between the different reanalyses. An intercomparison against experiments without data assimilation was done during the MyOcean project and we conclude that data assimilation is crucial for correctly simulating some quantities such as regional trends of sea level as well as the eddy kinetic energy. A second objective is to show that the ensemble mean of reanalyses can be evaluated as one single system regarding its reliability in reproducing the climate signals, where both variability and uncertainties are assessed through the ensemble spread and signal-to-noise ratio. The main advantage of having access to several reanalyses differing in the way data assimilation is performed is that it becomes possible to assess part of the total uncertainty. Given the fact that we use very similar ocean models and atmospheric forcing, we can conclude that the spread of the ensemble of reanalyses is mainly representative of our ability to gauge uncertainty in the assimilation methods. This uncertainty changes a lot from one ocean parameter to another, especially in global indices. However, despite several caveats in the design of the multi-system ensemble, the main conclusion from this study is that an eddy-permitting multi-system ensemble approach has become mature and our results provide a first step towards a systematic comparison of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses aimed at providing robust conclusions on the recent evolution of the oceanic state

Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact

Although there is a strong policy interest in the impacts of climate change corresponding to different degrees of climate change, there is so far little consistent empirical evidence of the relationship between climate forcing and impact. This is because the vast majority of impact assessments use emissions-based scenarios with associated socio-economic assumptions, and it is not feasible to infer impacts at other temperature changes by interpolation. This paper presents an assessment of the global-scale impacts of climate change in 2050 corresponding to defined increases in global mean temperature, using spatially-explicit impacts models representing impacts in the water resources, river flooding, coastal, agriculture, ecosystem and built environment sectors. Pattern-scaling is used to construct climate scenarios associated with specific changes in global mean surface temperature, and a relationship between temperature and sea level used to construct sea level rise scenarios. Climate scenarios are constructed from 21 climate models to give an indication of the uncertainty between forcing and response. The analysis shows that there is considerable uncertainty in the impacts associated with a given increase in global mean temperature, due largely to uncertainty in the projected regional change in precipitation. This has important policy implications. There is evidence for some sectors of a non-linear relationship between global mean temperature change and impact, due to the changing relative importance of temperature and precipitation change. In the socio-economic sectors considered here, the relationships are reasonably consistent between socio-economic scenarios if impacts are expressed in proportional terms, but there can be large differences in absolute terms. There are a number of caveats with the approach, including the use of pattern-scaling to construct scenarios, the use of one impacts model per sector, and the sensitivity of the shape of the relationships between forcing and response to the definition of the impact indicator

Steric sea level variability (1993-2010) in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses and objective analyses

Quantifying the effect of the seawater density changes on sea level variability is of crucial importance for climate change studies, as the sea level cumulative rise can be regarded as both an important climate change indicator and a possible danger for human activities in coastal areas. In this work, as part of the Ocean Reanalysis Intercomparison Project, the global and regional steric sea level changes are estimated and compared from an ensemble of 16 ocean reanalyses and 4 objective analyses. These estimates are initially compared with a satellite-derived (altimetry minus gravimetry) dataset for a short period (2003–2010). The ensemble mean exhibits a significant high correlation at both global and regional scale, and the ensemble of ocean reanalyses outperforms that of objective analyses, in particular in the Southern Ocean. The reanalysis ensemble mean thus represents a valuable tool for further analyses, although large uncertainties remain for the inter-annual trends. Within the extended intercomparison period that spans the altimetry era (1993–2010), we find that the ensemble of reanalyses and objective analyses are in good agreement, and both detect a trend of the global steric sea level of 1.0 and 1.1 ± 0.05 mm/year, respectively. However, the spread among the products of the halosteric component trend exceeds the mean trend itself, questioning the reliability of its estimate. This is related to the scarcity of salinity observations before the Argo era. Furthermore, the impact of deep ocean layers is non-negligible on the steric sea level variability (22 and 12 % for the layers below 700 and 1500 m of depth, respectively), although the small deep ocean trends are not significant with respect to the products spread

Addressing the needs of children with disabilities experiencing disaster or terrorism

Purpose of review: This paper reviews the empirical literature on psychosocial factors relating to children with disabilities in the context of disaster or terrorism. Recent findings: Research indicates individuals with disabilities experience increased exposure to hazards due to existing social disparities and barriers associated with disability status. However, studies on the psychological effects of disaster/terrorism on children with preexisting disabilities are exceedingly few and empirical evidence of the effectiveness of trauma-focused therapies for this population is limited. Secondary adversities, including social stigma and health concerns, also compromise the recovery of these children post-disaster/terrorism. Schools and teachers appear to be particularly important in the recovery of children with disabilities to disaster. Disasters, terrorism, and war all contribute to the incidence of disability, as well as disproportionately affect children with preexisting disabilities. Summary: Disaster preparedness interventions and societal changes are needed to decrease the disproportionate environmental and social vulnerability of children with disabilities to disaster and terrorism

T-helper 1 versus T-helper 2 lymphocyte immunodysregulation is the central factor in genesis of Burkitt lymphoma: hypothesis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The HIV epidemic has challenged our previous understanding of endemic Burkitt's lymphoma. Despite the strong association of Burkitt's lymphoma and HIV infection in the Developed world, and against previous postulations that the cancer is due to immunosupression among African children, the HIV epidemic in the Malaria belt has not been associated with a corresponding increase in incidence of childhood Burkitt's lymphoma. Even outside the context of HIV infection, there is substantial evidence for a strong but skewed immune response towards a TH2 response in genesis of Burkitt lymphoma.</p> <p>Presentation of the hypothesis</p> <p>Rather than a global and/or profound immunosupression, the final common pathway in genesis of Burkitt's lymphoma is the dysregulation of the immune response towards a TH2 response dominated by B-lymphocytes, and the concomitant suppression of the TH1 cell-mediated immune surveillance, driven by various viral/parasitic/bacterial infections.</p> <p>Testing the hypothesis</p> <p>Case control studies comparing TH2 and TH1 immune responses in Burkitt lymphoma of different etiological types (sporadic, HIV-related, endemic and post-transplant) to demonstrate significant dominance of TH2 immune response in presence of poor CMI response as a common factor. Immunological profiling to evaluate differences between immune states that are associated (such as recurrent Malaria infection) and those that are not associated (such as severe protein-energy malnutrition) with Burkitt lymphoma. Prospective cohorts profiling chronology of immunological events leading to Burkitt lymphoma in children with EBV infection.</p> <p>Implications of the hypothesis</p> <p>The dysregulation of the immune response may be the missing link in our understanding of Burkitt lymphomagenesis. This will provide possibilities for determination of risk and for control of development of malignancy in individuals/populations exposed to the relevant infections.</p

School Effects on the Wellbeing of Children and Adolescents

Well-being is a multidimensional construct, with psychological, physical and social components. As theoretical basis to help understand this concept and how it relates to school, we propose the Self-Determination Theory, which contends that self-determined motivation and personality integration, growth and well-being are dependent on a healthy balance of three innate psychological needs of autonomy, relatedness and competence. Thus, current indicators involve school effects on children’s well-being, in many diverse modalities which have been explored. Some are described in this chapter, mainly: the importance of peer relationships; the benefits of friendship; the effects of schools in conjunction with some forms of family influence; the school climate in terms of safety and physical ecology; the relevance of the teacher input; the school goal structure and the implementation of cooperative learning. All these parameters have an influence in promoting optimal functioning among children and increasing their well-being by meeting the above mentioned needs. The empirical support for the importance of schools indicates significant small effects, which often translate into important real-life effects as it is admitted at present. The conclusion is that schools do make a difference in children’s peer relationships and well-being