A new approach to the evaluation and selection of leading indicators

This note examines how the DEM/USD rate and US short-term and long-term interest rates respond to the release of payroll announcements. In contrast to a recent paper by Edison (1997), who employs a linear econometric model, we test the influence of news by comparing the absolute values of the percentage change between the means of symmetrically sampled values of daily exchange rate and interest rates before and after the announcement day to the distribution of absolute changes in means for all periods excluding non-farm payroll news. We find a highly significant reaction for both the DEM/USD rate and bond yields, depending on the window size. Short-term US interest rates, by contrast are hardly affected. Finally, the reaction of inflation indexed bond yields to news announcements is investigated.. --leading indicator,turning point,prediction

Stability issues in German money multiplier forecasts

This paper investigates the stability of the German money supply focusing on the period 1991 - 1998. It is shown that the standard ARIMA-Transfer model approach in the literature needs to be augmented by a cointegration term to adequately model the dynamics of money supply in Germany. Additional analysis with regard to the influence of financial innovations on the control of money supply yields evidence that the influence of financial innovations on the multiplier has increased steadily during the observation period. --Money Supply,Financial Innovation,Forecasting Money Multiplier

Programming CUDA and OpenCL: A Case Study Using Modern C++ Libraries

We present a comparison of several modern C++ libraries providing high-level interfaces for programming multi- and many-core architectures on top of CUDA or OpenCL. The comparison focuses on the solution of ordinary differential equations and is based on odeint, a framework for the solution of systems of ordinary differential equations. Odeint is designed in a very flexible way and may be easily adapted for effective use of libraries such as Thrust, MTL4, VexCL, or ViennaCL, using CUDA or OpenCL technologies. We found that CUDA and OpenCL work equally well for problems of large sizes, while OpenCL has higher overhead for smaller problems. Furthermore, we show that modern high-level libraries allow to effectively use the computational resources of many-core GPUs or multi-core CPUs without much knowledge of the underlying technologies.Comment: 21 pages, 4 figures, submitted to SIAM Journal of Scientific Computing and accepte

Landscape survey in the Tienshan Mountains, Kyrgyzstan

Die Naturraumerkundung nach KOPP, JÄGER & SUCCOW (1982) ist ein umfassendes landschaftsökologisches Methodenkonzept, auf welchem die forstliche Standortserkundung in Ostdeutschland basiert (siehe KOPP & SCHWANECKE 1994, SCHULZE & KOPP 1995) und auch bereits bei der Moorforschung breite Anwendung gefunden hat (siehe SUCCOW 1988, SUCCOW & JOOSTEN 2001). Mit der Naturraumerkundung lassen sich die Zusammenhänge zwischen Standort, Vegetation und Nutzung sehr gut erfassen, und bezüglich ökologischer Funktionen und Nutzbarkeit interpretieren. Deshalb wird die Methode auch bei anwendungsorientierten landschaftsökologischen Untersuchungen im Tienschan eingesetzt (GOTTSCHLING 2003). Im Folgenden werden Erfahrungen mit der in Mitteleuropa entwickelten Naturraumerkundung unter den Bedingungen des Tienschan-Gebirges in Mittelasien dargestellt.Landscape survey as described by KOPP et al. 1982 is a convenient methodology for analyzing the relationship between geo-structural qualities of sites (climate, relief, soil, soil water), vegetation and land use. The method has previously mainly been used in Central Europe. Experiences gathered while applying the method under the conditions of Tienshan Mountains are discussed. In the Tienshan, the climatic and ecological conditions vary within short distances because of the mountainous environment, particularly with altitude and the exposition of slopes. A sharp ecological transition can be observed between north slopes, with spruce forest (Picea schrenkiana) on dystric cambisol and south slopes, with steppe on calcic chernosem. An important principle of the described method is a coordinated classification of climate, soil, relief, soil water and vegetation. The classification units are linked to “landscape forms” in topic dimension and the “landscape mosaics” in choric dimension, which characterise the heterogeneity of the mosaics. Another principle of the method is the distinction of basic natural qualities of the site and the qualities of its present condition, which may have been changed. The comparison of basic qualities of geo-structured sites allows the identification of the natural vegetation on chosen sites. This can be used, for example, to identify well adapted sites for afforestation of pasture land

Approximation properties of the neuro-fuzzy minimum function

The integration of fuzzy logic systems and neural networks in data driven nonlinear modeling applications has generally been limited to functions based upon the multiplicative fuzzy implication rule for theoretical and computational reasons. We derive a universal approximation result for the minimum fuzzy implication rule as well as a differentiable substitute function that allows fast optimization and function approximation with neuro-fuzzy networks. --Fuzzy Logic,Neural Networks,Nonlinear Modeling,Optimization

Closed form integration of artificial neural networks with some applications

Many economic and econometric applications require the integration of functions lacking a closed form antiderivative, which is therefore a task that can only be solved by numerical methods. We propose a new family of probability densities that can be used as substitutes and have the property of closed form integrability. This is especially advantageous in cases where either the complexity of a problem makes numerical function evaluations very costly, or fast information extraction is required for time-varying environments. Our approach allows generally for nonparametric maximum likelihood density estimation and may thus find a variety of applications, two of which are illustrated briefly: Estimation of Value at Risk based on approximations to the density of stock returns; Recovering risk neutral densities for the valuation of options from the option price - strike price relation. --Option Pricing,Neural Networks,Nonparametric Density Estimation

Approximation properties of the neuro-fuzzy minimum function

The integration of fuzzy logic systems and neural networks in data driven nonlinear modeling applications has generally been limited to functions based upon the multiplicative fuzzy implication rule for theoretical and computational reasons. We derive a universal approximation result for the minimum fuzzy implication rule as well as a differentiable substitute function that allows fast optimization and function approximation with neuro-fuzzy networks

Stability issues in German money multiplier forecasts

This paper investigates the stability of the German money supply focusing on the period 1991 - 1998. It is shown that the standard ARIMA-Transfer model approach in the literature needs to be augmented by a cointegration term to adequately model the dynamics of money supply in Germany. Additional analysis with regard to the influence of financial innovations on the control of money supply yields evidence that the influence of financial innovations on the multiplier has increased steadily during the observation period

Isolation of three novel rat and mouse papillomaviruses and their genomic characterization.

Despite a growing knowledge about the biological diversity of papillomaviruses (PV), only little is known about non-human PV in general and about PV mice models in particular. We cloned and sequenced the complete genomes of two novel PV types from the Norway rat (Rattus norvegicus; RnPV2) and the wood mouse (Apodemus sylvaticus; AsPV1) as well as a novel variant of the recently described MmuPV1 (originally designated as MusPV) from a house mouse (Mus musculus; MmuPV1 variant). In addition, we conducted phylogenetic analyses using a systematically representative set of 79 PV types, including the novel sequences. As inferred from concatenated amino acid sequences of six proteins, MmuPV1 variant and AsPV1 nested within the Beta+Xi-PV super taxon as members of the Pi-PV. RnPV2 is a member of the Iota-PV that has a distant phylogenetic position from Pi-PV. The phylogenetic results support a complex scenario of PV diversification driven by different evolutionary forces including co-divergence with hosts and adaptive radiations to new environments. PV types particularly isolated from mice and rats are the basis for new animal models, which are valuable to study PV induced tumors and new treatment options

Status, distribution and use of threatened tree species in the walnut-fruit forests of Kyrgyzstan

Information is lacking on the status of threatened tree species in Central Asia. This paper aims to provide preliminary information for 10 fruit and nut tree species of Kyrgyzstan. A field survey was conducted throughout the range of walnut-fruit forests in this country, supported by a socio-economic survey. Results indicated that species differed markedly in abundance. Whereas Malus sieversii was found in all locations, four species (Crataegus pontica,Pistacia vera,Pyrus korshinskyi and Sorbus persica) were only found in a minority (≤ 30%) of sites. Four species showed evidence of a bimodal distribution of stem diameters, which could be attributed to fuelwood harvesting, as indicated by the socio-economic survey. A majority of respondents reported a decline in the available grazing resource, a decline in the availability of harvested fruits and an increase in time required to collect fuelwood over the past decade. These results suggest that unsustainable land-use practices may be impacting negatively on populations of threatened fruit tree species. These results highlight the need to regulate local forest use to ensure that threatened fruit and nut tree species are effectively conserved, and the need for targeted actions to conserve the most threatened species, such as P. korshinskyi. © 2014 © 2014 Taylor & Francis