Bayesian and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for identifying nonlinear systems in the presence of uncertainty

In this paper, the authors outline the general principles behind an approach to Bayesian system identification and highlight the benefits of adopting a Bayesian framework when attempting to identify models of nonlinear dynamical systems in the presence of uncertainty. It is then described how, through a summary of some key algorithms, many of the potential difficulties associated with a Bayesian approach can be overcome through the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The paper concludes with a case study, where an MCMC algorithm is used to facilitate the Bayesian system identification of a nonlinear dynamical system from experimentally observed acceleration time histories

Access to interpreting services in England: secondary analysis of national data

Background: Overcoming language barriers to health care is a global challenge. There is great linguistic diversity in the major cities in the UK with more than 300 languages, excluding dialects, spoken by children in London alone. However, there is dearth of data on the number of non-English speakers for planning effective interpreting services. The aim was to estimate the number of people requiring language support amongst the minority ethnic communities in England. Methods: Secondary analysis of national representative sample of subjects recruited to the Health Surveys for England 1999 and 2004. Results: 298,432 individuals from the four main minority ethnic communities (Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi and Chinese) who may be unable to communicate effectively with a health professional. This represents 2,520,885 general practice consultations per year where interpreting services might be required. Conclusion: Effective interpreting services are required to improve access and health outcomes of non-English speakers and thereby facilitate a reduction in health inequalities

Preserving the impossible: conservation of soft-sediment hominin footprint sites and strategies for three-dimensional digital data capture.

Human footprints provide some of the most publically emotive and tangible evidence of our ancestors. To the scientific community they provide evidence of stature, presence, behaviour and in the case of early hominins potential evidence with respect to the evolution of gait. While rare in the geological record the number of footprint sites has increased in recent years along with the analytical tools available for their study. Many of these sites are at risk from rapid erosion, including the Ileret footprints in northern Kenya which are second only in age to those at Laetoli (Tanzania). Unlithified, soft-sediment footprint sites such these pose a significant geoconservation challenge. In the first part of this paper conservation and preservation options are explored leading to the conclusion that to 'record and digitally rescue' provides the only viable approach. Key to such strategies is the increasing availability of three-dimensional data capture either via optical laser scanning and/or digital photogrammetry. Within the discipline there is a developing schism between those that favour one approach over the other and a requirement from geoconservationists and the scientific community for some form of objective appraisal of these alternatives is necessary. Consequently in the second part of this paper we evaluate these alternative approaches and the role they can play in a 'record and digitally rescue' conservation strategy. Using modern footprint data, digital models created via optical laser scanning are compared to those generated by state-of-the-art photogrammetry. Both methods give comparable although subtly different results. This data is evaluated alongside a review of field deployment issues to provide guidance to the community with respect to the factors which need to be considered in digital conservation of human/hominin footprints

Impact of volunteer-related and methodology-related factors on the reproducibility of brachial artery flow-mediated vasodilation: Analysis of 672 individual repeated measurements

Copyright © 2016 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.Objectives: Brachial artery flow-mediated dilation (FMD) is a popular technique to examine endothelial function in humans. Identifying volunteer and methodological factors related to variation in FMD is important to improve measurement accuracy and applicability. Methods: Volunteer-related and methodology-related parameters were collected in 672 volunteers from eight affiliated centres worldwide who underwent repeated measures of FMD. All centres adopted contemporary expert-consensus guidelines for FMD assessment. After calculating the coefficient of variation (%) of the FMD for each individual, we constructed quartiles (n = 168 per quartile). Based on two regression models (volunteer-related factors and methodology-related factors), statistically significant components of these two models were added to a final regression model (calculated as β-coefficient and R 2). This allowed us to identify factors that independently contributed to the variation in FMD%. Results: Median coefficient of variation was 17.5%, with healthy volunteers demonstrating a coefficient of variation 9.3%. Regression models revealed age (β = 0.248, P < 0.001), hypertension (β = 0.104, P < 0.001), dyslipidemia (β = 0.331, P < 0.001), time between measurements (β = 0.318, P < 0.001), lab experience (β = -0.133, P < 0.001) and baseline FMD% (β = 0.082, P < 0.05) as contributors to the coefficient of variation. After including all significant factors in the final model, we found that time between measurements, hypertension, baseline FMD% and lab experience with FMD independently predicted brachial artery variability (total R2 = 0.202). Conclusion: Although FMD% showed good reproducibility, larger variation was observed in conditions with longer time between measurements, hypertension, less experience and lower baseline FMD%. Accounting for these factors may improve FMD% variability

Religion and HIV in Tanzania: Influence of Religious Beliefs on HIV stigma, Disclosure, and Treatment Attitudes.

Religion shapes everyday beliefs and activities, but few studies have examined its associations with attitudes about HIV. This exploratory study in Tanzania probed associations between religious beliefs and HIV stigma, disclosure, and attitudes toward antiretroviral (ARV) treatment. A self-administered survey was distributed to a convenience sample of parishioners (n = 438) attending Catholic, Lutheran, and Pentecostal churches in both urban and rural areas. The survey included questions about religious beliefs, opinions about HIV, and knowledge and attitudes about ARVs. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to assess how religion was associated with perceptions about HIV, HIV treatment, and people living with HIV/AIDS. Results indicate that shame-related HIV stigma is strongly associated with religious beliefs such as the belief that HIV is a punishment from God (p < 0.01) or that people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) have not followed the Word of God (p < 0.001). Most participants (84.2%) said that they would disclose their HIV status to their pastor or congregation if they became infected. Although the majority of respondents (80.8%) believed that prayer could cure HIV, almost all (93.7%) said that they would begin ARV treatment if they became HIV-infected. The multivariate analysis found that respondents' hypothetical willingness to begin ARV treatme was not significantly associated with the belief that prayer could cure HIV or with other religious factors. Refusal of ARV treatment was instead correlated with lack of secondary schooling and lack of knowledge about ARVs. The decision to start ARVs hinged primarily on education-level and knowledge about ARVs rather than on religious factors. Research results highlight the influence of religious beliefs on HIV-related stigma and willingness to disclose, and should help to inform HIV-education outreach for religious groups

The Impact of Flavour Changing Neutral Gauge Bosons on B->X_s gamma

The branching ratio of the rare decay B->X_s gamma provides potentially strong constraints on models beyond the Standard Model. Considering a general scenario with new heavy neutral gauge bosons, present in particular in Z' and gauge flavour models, we point out two new contributions to the B->X_s gamma decay. The first one originates from one-loop diagrams mediated by gauge bosons and heavy exotic quarks with electric charge -1/3. The second contribution stems from the QCD mixing of neutral current-current operators generated by heavy neutral gauge bosons and the dipole operators responsible for the B->X_s gamma decay. The latter mixing is calculated here for the first time. We discuss general sum rules which have to be satisfied in any model of this type. We emphasise that the neutral gauge bosons in question could also significantly affect other fermion radiative decays as well as non-leptonic two-body B decays, epsilon'/epsilon, anomalous (g-2)_mu and electric dipole moments.Comment: 31 pages, 5 figures; version published on JHEP; added magic QCD numbers for flavour-violating Z gauge boson contribution to B -> X_s gamm