The evolution of decision rules in complex environments.

PublishedResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tReviewThis is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2013.12.012Models and experiments on adaptive decision-making typically consider highly simplified environments that bear little resemblance to the complex, heterogeneous world in which animals (including humans) have evolved. These studies reveal an array of so-called cognitive biases and puzzling features of behaviour that seem irrational in the specific situation presented to the decision-maker. Here we review an emerging body of work that highlights spatiotemporal heterogeneity and autocorrelation as key properties of most real-world environments that may help us understand why these biases evolved. Ecologically rational decision rules adapted to such environments can lead to apparently maladaptive behaviour in artificial experimental settings. We encourage researchers to consider environments with greater complexity to understand better how evolution has shaped our cognitive systems.This work was funded by the European Research Council (Advanced Grant 250209 to A.I.H.) and the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (grant number EP/I032622/1 to Iain D. Gilchrist)

Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA reductase inhibition with simvastatin in acute lung injury to reduce pulmonary dysfunction (HARP-2) trial : study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Acute lung injury (ALI) is a common devastating clinical syndrome characterized by life-threatening respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation and multiple organ failure. There are in vitro, animal studies and pre-clinical data suggesting that statins may be beneficial in ALI. The Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA reductase inhibition with simvastatin in Acute lung injury to Reduce Pulmonary dysfunction (HARP-2) trial is a multicenter, prospective, randomized, allocation concealed, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial which aims to test the hypothesis that treatment with simvastatin will improve clinical outcomes in patients with ALI

Defining goal terms in development and health

YesMost academic literature uses ‘goal’, ‘aim’, ‘objective’ and ‘target’ as synonymous terms, but development and healthcare sectors define them as distinct etymological entities with varied and confusing interpretations. This review sought to constructively harmonise and differentiate each definition using a thematic framework. An inductive synthesis of definitions of the goal terms collected from 22 literature sources selected through a systematic internet search. Thirty-three specific definitions were reduced through serial category-building to single general definitions, and a set of theoretical themes generated as characteristic framework of each goal. Seven conceptual themes evolved from the synthesis, including the object, scope, hierarchy, timeframe, measurability, significance and expression of each goal term. Two terms, ‘goal’ and ‘aim’ are thematically similar as broad objects of immeasurable terminal impact, with a long-term timeframe. They signify organisational success, expressed as general purpose statements. ‘Objective’ is differentiated as a specific object of measurable intermediate outcome, with short-term timeframe. It signifies intervention effectiveness, expressed as a SMART statement. ‘Target’ is simply a specific quantifiable level of an indicator. Goal, aim, objective and target are conceptually different. New frameworks for writing complete goal statements are proposed, including impact and timeframe; and outcome, indicator and timeframe frameworks for aim and objective respectivel

Circulating markers of arterial thrombosis and late-stage age-related macular degeneration: a case-control study.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to examine the relation of late-stage age-related macular degeneration (AMD) with markers of systemic atherothrombosis. METHODS: A hospital-based case-control study of AMD was undertaken in London, UK. Cases of AMD (n=81) and controls (n=77) were group matched for age and sex. Standard protocols were used for colour fundus photography and to classify AMD; physical examination included height, weight, history of or treatment for vascular-related diseases and smoking status. Blood samples were taken for measurement of fibrinogen, factor VIIc (FVIIc), factor VIIIc, prothrombin fragment F1.2 (F1.2), tissue plasminogen activator, and von Willebrand factor. Odds ratios from logistic regression analyses of each atherothrombotic marker with AMD were adjusted for age, sex, and established cardiovascular disease risk factors, including smoking, blood pressure, body mass index, and total cholesterol. RESULTS: After adjustment FVIIc and possibly F1.2 were inversely associated with the risk of AMD; per 1 standard deviation increase in these markers the odds ratio were, respectively, 0.62 (95% confidence interval 0.40, 0.95) and 0.71 (0.46, 1.09). None of the other atherothrombotic risk factors appeared to be related to AMD status. There was weak evidence that aspirin is associated with a lower risk of AMD. CONCLUSIONS: This study does not provide strong evidence of associations between AMD and systematic markers of arterial thrombosis, but the potential effects of FVIIc, and F1.2 are worthy of further investigation

The Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW): rationale and study design

SUMMARY: The Global Longitudinal study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) is a prospective cohort study involving 723 physicians and 60,393 women subjects >or=55 years. The data will provide insights into the management of fracture risk in older women over 5 years, patient experience with prevention and treatment, and distribution of risk among older women on an international basis. INTRODUCTION: Data from cohort studies describing the distribution of osteoporosis-related fractures and risk factors are not directly comparable and do not compare regional differences in patterns of patient management and fracture outcomes. METHODS: The GLOW is a prospective, multinational, observational cohort study. Practices typical of each region were identified through primary care networks organized for administrative, research, or educational purposes. Noninstitutionalized patients visiting each practice within the previous 2 years were eligible. Self-administered questionnaires were mailed, with 2:1 oversampling of women >or=65 years. Follow-up questionnaires will be sent at 12-month intervals for 5 years. RESULTS: A total of 723 physicians at 17 sites in ten countries agreed to participate. Baseline surveys were mailed (October 2006 to February 2008) to 140,416 subjects. After the exclusion of 3,265 women who were ineligible or had died, 60,393 agreed to participate. CONCLUSIONS: GLOW will provide contemporary information on patterns of management of fracture risk in older women over a 5-year period. The collection of data in a similar manner in ten countries will permit comparisons of patient experience with prevention and treatment and provide insights into the distribution of risk among older women on an international basis

Smoking and health-related quality of life in English general population: Implications for economic evaluations

Copyright @ 2012 Vogl et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Background: Little is known as to how health-related quality of life (HRQoL) when measured by generic instruments such as EQ-5D differ across smokers, ex-smokers and never-smokers in the general population; whether the overall pattern of this difference remain consistent in each domain of HRQoL; and what implications this variation, if any, would have for economic evaluations of tobacco control interventions. Methods: Using the 2006 round of Health Survey for England data (n = 13,241), this paper aims to examine the impact of smoking status on health-related quality of life in English population. Depending upon the nature of the EQ-5D data (i.e. tariff or domains), linear or logistic regression models were fitted to control for biology, clinical conditions, socio-economic background and lifestyle factors that an individual may have regardless of their smoking status. Age- and gender-specific predicted values according to smoking status are offered as the potential 'utility' values to be used in future economic evaluation models. Results: The observed difference of 0.1100 in EQ-5D scores between never-smokers (0.8839) and heavy-smokers (0.7739) reduced to 0.0516 after adjusting for biological, clinical, lifestyle and socioeconomic conditions. Heavy-smokers, when compared with never-smokers, were significantly more likely to report some/severe problems in all five domains - mobility (67%), self-care (70%), usual activity (42%), pain/discomfort (46%) and anxiety/depression (86%) -. 'Utility' values by age and gender for each category of smoking are provided to be used in the future economic evaluations. Conclusion: Smoking is significantly and negatively associated with health-related quality of life in English general population and the magnitude of this association is determined by the number of cigarettes smoked. The varying degree of this association, captured through instruments such as EQ-5D, may need to be fed into the design of future economic evaluations where the intervention being evaluated affects (e.g. tobacco control) or is affected (e.g. treatment for lung cancer) by individual's (or patients') smoking status

Monitoring and evaluation of human resources for health: an international perspective

BACKGROUND: Despite the undoubted importance of human resources to the functions of health systems, there is little consistency between countries in how human resource strategies are monitored and evaluated. This paper presents an integrated approach for developing an evidence base on human resources for health (HRH) to support decision-making, drawing on a framework for health systems performance assessment. METHODS: Conceptual and methodological issues for selecting indicators for HRH monitoring and evaluation are discussed, and a range of primary and secondary data sources that might be used to generate indicators are reviewed. Descriptive analyses are conducted drawing primarily on one type of source, namely routinely reported data on the numbers of health personnel and medical schools as covered by national reporting systems and compiled by the World Health Organization. Regression techniques are used to triangulate a given HRH indicator calculated from different data sources across multiple countries. RESULTS: Major variations in the supply of health personnel and training opportunities are found to occur by region. However, certain discrepancies are also observed in measuring the same indicator from different sources, possibly related to the occupational classification or to the sources' representation. CONCLUSION: Evidence-based information is needed to better understand trends in HRH. Although a range of sources exist that can potentially be used for HRH assessment, the information that can be derived from many of these individual sources precludes refined analysis. A variety of data sources and analytical approaches, each with its own strengths and limitations, is required to reflect the complexity of HRH issues. In order to enhance cross-national comparability, data collection efforts should be processed through the use of internationally standardized classifications (in particular, for occupation, industry and education) at the greatest level of detail possible

Keratinocyte growth factor in acute lung injury to reduce pulmonary dysfunction – a randomised placebo-controlled trial (KARE): study protocol

Abstract Background Acute lung injury is a common, devastating clinical syndrome associated with substantial mortality and morbidity with currently no proven therapeutic interventional strategy to improve patient outcomes. The objectives of this study are to test the potential therapeutic effects of keratinocyte growth factor for patients with acute lung injury on oxygenation and biological indicators of acute inflammation, lung epithelial and endothelial function, protease:antiprotease balance, and lung extracellular matrix degradation and turnover. Methods/design This will be a prospective, randomised, double-blind, allocation-concealed, placebo-controlled, phase 2, multicentre trial. Randomisation will be stratified by presence of severe sepsis requiring vasopressors. Patients in an ICU fulfilling the American–European Consensus Conference Definition of acute lung injury will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio to receive an intravenous bolus of either keratinocyte growth factor (palifermin, 60 μg/kg) or placebo (0.9% sodium chloride solution) daily for a maximum of 6 days. The primary endpoint of this clinical study is to evaluate the efficacy of palifermin to improve the oxygenation index at day 7 or the last available oxygenation index prior to patient discontinuation from the study.A formal statistical analysis plan has been constructed. Analyses will be carried out on an intention-to-treat basis. A single analysis is planned at the end of the trial. P = 0.05 will be considered statistically significant and all tests will be two-sided. For continuously distributed outcomes, differences between groups will be tested using independent-sample t tests, analysis of variance and analysis of covariance with transformation of variables to normality or nonparametric equivalents. The trial will be reported in line with the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (Consort 2010 guidelines). Trial registration http://ISRCTN9569067

Gender differences in the associations between age trends of social media interaction and well-being among 10-15 year olds in the UK

Background Adolescents are among the highest consumers of social media while research has shown that their well-being decreases with age. The temporal relationship between social media interaction and well-being is not well established. The aim of this study was to examine whether the changes in social media interaction and two well-being measures are related across ages using parallel growth models. Methods Data come from five waves of the youth questionnaire, 10-15 years, of the Understanding Society, the UK Household Longitudinal Study (pooled n =9859). Social media interaction was assessed through daily frequency of chatting on social websites. Well-being was measured by happiness with six domains of life and the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. Results Findings suggest gender differences in the relationship between interacting on social media and well-being. There were significant correlations between interacting on social media and well-being intercepts and between social media interaction and well-being slopes among females. Additionally higher social media interaction at age 10 was associated with declines in well-being thereafter for females, but not for males. Results were similar for both measures of well-being. Conclusions High levels of social media interaction in early adolescence have implications for well-being in later adolescence, particularly for females. The lack of an association among males suggests other factors might be associated with their reduction in well-being with age. These findings contribute to the debate on causality and may inform future policy and interventions