Continuous-Time Random Walk with multi-step memory: An application to market dynamics

A novel version of the Continuous-Time Random Walk (CTRW) model with memory is developed. This memory means the dependence between arbitrary number of successive jumps of the process, while waiting times between jumps are considered as i.i.d. random variables. The dependence was found by analysis of empirical histograms for the stochastic process of a single share price on a market within the high frequency time scale, and justified theoretically by considering bid-ask bounce mechanism containing some delay characteristic for any double-auction market. Our model turns out to be exactly analytically solvable, which enables a direct comparison of its predictions with their empirical counterparts, for instance, with empirical velocity autocorrelation function. Thus this paper significantly extends the capabilities of the CTRW formalism

Directed Continuous-Time Random Walk with memory

We propose a new Directed Continuous-Time Random Walk (CTRW) model with memory. As CTRW trajectory consists of spatial jumps preceded by waiting times, in Directed CTRW, we consider the case with only positive spatial jumps. Moreover, we consider the memory in the model as each spatial jump depends on the previous one. Our model is motivated by the financial application of the CTRW presented in [Phys. Rev. E 82:046119][Eur. Phys. J. B 90:50]. As CTRW can successfully describe the short term negative autocorrelation of returns in high-frequency financial data (caused by the bid-ask bounce phenomena), we asked ourselves to what extent the observed long-term autocorrelation of absolute values of returns can be explained by the same phenomena. It turned out that the bid-ask bounce can be responsible only for the small fraction of the memory observed in the high-frequency financial data

Coevolving complex networks in the model of social interactions

We analyze Axelrod's model of social interactions on coevolving complex networks. We introduce four extensions with different mechanisms of edge rewiring. The models are intended to catch two kinds of interactions - preferential attachment, which can be observed in scientists or actors collaborations, and local rewiring, which can be observed in friendship formation in everyday relations. Numerical simulations show that proposed dynamics can lead to the power-law distribution of nodes' degree and high value of the clustering coefficient, while still retaining the small-world effect in three models. All models are characterized by two phase transitions of a different nature. In case of local rewiring we obtain order-disorder discontinuous phase transition even in the thermodynamic limit, while in case of long-distance switching discontinuity disappears in the thermodynamic limit, leaving one continuous phase transition. In addition, we discover a new and universal characteristic of the second transition point - an abrupt increase of the clustering coefficient, due to formation of many small complete subgraphs inside the network

Reinterpretation of Sieczka-Ho{\l}yst financial market model

In this work we essentially reinterpreted the Sieczka-Ho{\l}yst (SH) model to make it more suited for description of real markets. For instance, this reinterpretation made it possible to consider agents as crafty. These agents encourage their neighbors to buy some stocks if agents have an opportunity to sell these stocks. Also, agents encourage them to sell some stocks if agents have an opposite opportunity. Furthermore, in our interpretation price changes respond only to the agents' opinions change. This kind of respond protects the stock market dynamics against the paradox (present in the SH model), where all agents e.g. buy stocks while the corresponding prices remain unchanged. In this work we found circumstances, where distributions of returns (obtained for quite different time scales) either obey power-law or have at least fat tails. We obtained these distributions from numerical simulations performed in the frame of our approach

Dynamic structural and topological phase transitions on the Warsaw Stock Exchange: A phenomenological approach

We study the crash dynamics of the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) by using the Minimal Spanning Tree (MST) networks. We find the transition of the complex network during its evolution from a (hierarchical) power law MST network, representing the stable state of WSE before the recent worldwide financial crash, to a superstar-like (or superhub) MST network of the market decorated by a hierarchy of trees (being, perhaps, an unstable, intermediate market state). Subsequently, we observed a transition from this complex tree to the topology of the (hierarchical) power law MST network decorated by several star-like trees or hubs. This structure and topology represent, perhaps, the WSE after the worldwide financial crash, and could be considered to be an aftershock. Our results can serve as an empirical foundation for a future theory of dynamic structural and topological phase transitions on financial markets

Statistical mechanics of coevolving spin system

We propose a statistical mechanics approach to a coevolving spin system with an adaptive network of interactions. The dynamics of node states and network connections is driven by both spin configuration and network topology. We consider a Hamiltonian that merges the classical Ising model and the statistical theory of correlated random networks. As a result, we obtain rich phase diagrams with different phase transitions both in the state of nodes and in the graph topology. We argue that the coupling between the spin dynamics and the structure of the network is crucial in understanding the complex behavior of real-world systems and omitting one of the approaches renders the description incomplete

The new face of multifractality: Multi-branchedness and the phase transitions in time series of mean inter-event times

Empirical time series of inter-event or waiting times are investigated using a modified Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis operating on fluctuations of mean detrended dynamics. The core of the extended multifractal analysis is the non-monotonic behavior of the generalized Hurst exponent $h(q)$ -- the fundamental exponent in the study of multifractals. The consequence of this behavior is the non-monotonic behavior of the coarse H\"older exponent $\alpha (q)$ leading to multi-branchedness of the spectrum of dimensions. The Legendre-Fenchel transform is used instead of the routinely used canonical Legendre (single-branched) contact transform. Thermodynamic consequences of the multi-branched multifractality are revealed. These are directly expressed in the language of phase transitions between thermally stable, metastable, and unstable phases. These phase transitions are of the first and second orders according to Mandelbrot's modified Ehrenfest classification. The discovery of multi-branchedness is tantamount in significance to extending multifractal analysis.Comment: 24 pages, 13 figure