Transmission dynamics of the ongoing chikungunya outbreak in Central Italy. From coastal areas to the metropolitan city of Rome, summer 2017

A large chikungunya outbreak is ongoing in Italy, with a main cluster in the Anzio coastal municipality. With preliminary epidemiological data, and a transmission model using mosquito abundance and biting rates, we estimated the basic reproduction number R0 at 2.07 (95% credible interval: 1.47–2.59) and the first case importation between 21 May and 18 June 2017. Outbreak risk was higher in coastal/rural sites than urban ones. Novel transmission foci could occur up to mid-November

Algebraic Comparison of Partial Lists in Bioinformatics

The outcome of a functional genomics pipeline is usually a partial list of genomic features, ranked by their relevance in modelling biological phenotype in terms of a classification or regression model. Due to resampling protocols or just within a meta-analysis comparison, instead of one list it is often the case that sets of alternative feature lists (possibly of different lengths) are obtained. Here we introduce a method, based on the algebraic theory of symmetric groups, for studying the variability between lists ("list stability") in the case of lists of unequal length. We provide algorithms evaluating stability for lists embedded in the full feature set or just limited to the features occurring in the partial lists. The method is demonstrated first on synthetic data in a gene filtering task and then for finding gene profiles on a recent prostate cancer dataset

household transmission and disease transmissibility of a large hav outbreak in lazio italy 2016 2017

Abstract A major outbreak of Hepatitis A Virus (HAV) has swept through Europe between mid-2016 and 2017, mainly within the community of men who have sex with men (MSM). Over the same period, about 1,000 outbreak-related cases of acute Hepatitis A (AHA) were recorded in Lazio region, Italy. We calibrated a Bayesian model to reconstruct likely transmission events within all 44 households where multiple infections were recorded, representing a total of 103 cases from the HAV outbreak in Lazio. Based on information on the observed times of symptom onset, we estimated for the probability distribution function of the HAV generation time and used it to compute the effective and instantaneous reproduction numbers for the considered outbreak from the overall epidemic curve (N = 998 cases). We estimated a mean generation time of 30.2 days (95%CI: 25.2-33.0) and an effective reproduction number of about 1.63 (95% CI: 1.35-1.94). Transmissibility peaked in January 2017, shortly before targeted awareness and vaccination campaigns were put in place by health authorities; however, transmission remained above the epidemic threshold until June 2017. Within households, children (0-15) and young adults (16-30) infected preferentially individuals of the same age class, whereas transmission within older age groups was substantially homogeneous. These results suggest that the implemented interventions were able to slow down HAV transmission, but not to bring it rapidly to a halt. According to our estimates of the HAV transmissibility, about 50% of the at-risk persons should be immunized to prevent similar outbreaks in the future. Our results also indicate spillover from community transmission to household members, suggesting the opportunity of vaccinating household contacts of cases to prevent further spread of the epidemics

A machine learning pipeline for quantitative phenotype prediction from genotype data

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Quantitative phenotypes emerge everywhere in systems biology and biomedicine due to a direct interest for quantitative traits, or to high individual variability that makes hard or impossible to classify samples into distinct categories, often the case with complex common diseases. Machine learning approaches to genotype-phenotype mapping may significantly improve Genome-Wide Association Studies (GWAS) results by explicitly focusing on predictivity and optimal feature selection in a multivariate setting. It is however essential that stringent and well documented Data Analysis Protocols (DAP) are used to control sources of variability and ensure reproducibility of results. We present a genome-to-phenotype pipeline of machine learning modules for quantitative phenotype prediction. The pipeline can be applied for the direct use of whole-genome information in functional studies. As a realistic example, the problem of fitting complex phenotypic traits in heterogeneous stock mice from single nucleotide polymorphims (SNPs) is here considered.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The core element in the pipeline is the L1L2 regularization method based on the naïve elastic net. The method gives at the same time a regression model and a dimensionality reduction procedure suitable for correlated features. Model and SNP markers are selected through a DAP originally developed in the MAQC-II collaborative initiative of the U.S. FDA for the identification of clinical biomarkers from microarray data. The L1L2 approach is compared with standard Support Vector Regression (SVR) and with Recursive Jump Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC). Algebraic indicators of stability of partial lists are used for model selection; the final panel of markers is obtained by a procedure at the chromosome scale, termed ’saturation’, to recover SNPs in Linkage Disequilibrium with those selected.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>With respect to both MCMC and SVR, comparable accuracies are obtained by the L1L2 pipeline. Good agreement is also found between SNPs selected by the L1L2 algorithms and candidate loci previously identified by a standard GWAS. The combination of L1L2-based feature selection with a saturation procedure tackles the issue of neglecting highly correlated features that affects many feature selection algorithms.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The L1L2 pipeline has proven effective in terms of marker selection and prediction accuracy. This study indicates that machine learning techniques may support quantitative phenotype prediction, provided that adequate DAPs are employed to control bias in model selection.</p

The potential of Virtual Reality as anxiety management tool: a randomized controlled study in a sample of patients affected by Generalized Anxiety Disorder

Background: Generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) is a psychiatric disorder characterized by a constant and unspecific anxiety that interferes with daily-life activities. Its high prevalence in general population and the severe limitations it causes, point out the necessity to find new efficient strategies to treat it. Together with the cognitive-behavioural treatments, relaxation represents a useful approach for the treatment of GAD, but it has the limitation that it is hard to be learned. To overcome this limitation we propose the use of virtual reality (VR) to facilitate the relaxation process by visually presenting key relaxing images to the subjects. The visual presentation of a virtual calm scenario can facilitate patients' practice and mastery of relaxation, making the experience more vivid and real than the one that most subjects can create using their own imagination and memory, and triggering a broad empowerment process within the experience induced by a high sense of presence. According to these premises, the aim of the present study is to investigate the advantages of using a VR-based relaxation protocol in reducing anxiety in patients affected by GAD. Methods/Design: The trialis based on a randomized controlled study, including three groups of 25 patients each (for a total of 75 patients): (1) the VR group, (2) the non-VR group and (3) the waiting list (WL) group. Patients in the VR group will be taught to relax using a VR relaxing environment and audio-visual mobile narratives; patients in the non-VR group will be taught to relax using the same relaxing narratives proposed to the VR group, but without the VR support, and patients in the WL group will not receive any kind of relaxation training. Psychometric and psychophysiological outcomes will serve as quantitative dependent variables, while subjective reports of participants will be used as qualitative dependent variables. Conclusion: We argue that the use of VR for relaxation represents a promising approach in the treatment of GAD since it enhances the quality of the relaxing experience through the elicitation of the sense of presence. This controlled trial will be able to evaluate the effects of the use of VR in relaxation while preserving the benefits of randomization to reduce bias

Co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Gamma variants in Italy, February and March 2021

Background: Several SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) have emerged through 2020 and 2021. There is need for toots to estimate the relative transmissibility of emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2 with respect to circulating strains. Aim: We aimed to assess the prevalence of co-circulating VOC in Italy and estimate their relative transmissibility. Methods: We conducted two genomic surveillance surveys on 18 February and 18 March 2021 across the whole Italian territory covering 3,243 clinical samples and developed a mathematical model that describes the dynamics of co-circulating strains. Results: The Alpha variant was already dominant on 18 February in a majority of regions/autonomous provinces (national prevalence: 54%) and almost completely replaced historical lineages by 18 March (dominant across Italy, national prevalence: 86%). We found a substantial proportion of the Gamma variant on 18 February, almost exclusively in central Italy (prevalence: 19%), which remained similar on 18 March. Nationally, the mean relative transmissibility of Alpha ranged at 1.55-1.57 times the level of historical lineages (95% CrI: 1.45-1.66). The relative transmissibility of Gamma varied according to the assumed degree of cross-protection from infection with other lineages and ranged from 1.12 (95% CrI: 1.03-1.23) with complete immune evasion to 1.39 (95% CrI: 1.26-1.56) for complete cross-protection. Conclusion: We assessed the relative advantage of competing viral strains, using a mathematical model assuming different degrees of cross-protection. We found substantial co-circulation of Alpha and Gamma in Italy. Gamma was not able to outcompete Alpha, probably because of its lower transmissibility

SIMBIO-SYS: Scientific Cameras and Spectrometer for the BepiColombo Mission

The SIMBIO-SYS (Spectrometer and Imaging for MPO BepiColombo Integrated Observatory SYStem) is a complex instrument suite part of the scientific payload of the Mercury Planetary Orbiter for the BepiColombo mission, the last of the cornerstone missions of the European Space Agency (ESA) Horizon + science program

Modifications of volume, shape and structure during metamorphism: Unearthing some ignored strain paths

A deformational process - that is the joint transformation of volume, shape and structure of a continuum playing the role of an actual material - can be described as a transformation of a vector space. Using such description one may notice that there are some cases of homogeneous deformation the very existence of which is usually ignored. It is suggested here that the recognition of these additional cases is a prerequisite for a fully comprehensive consideration and interpretation of tectonic fabrics, and a constructive reassessment of basic concepts of continuum mechanics

A possible bridge between Adria and Africa: New palaeobiogeographic and stratigraphic constraints on the Mesozoic palaeogeography of the Central Mediterranean area

Dinosaur records in central and southern Italy testify to the occurrence of a diverse dinosaur fauna on the Apennine and Apulian carbonate platforms at least from the Tithonian to the Santonian. Most of the palaeogeographic reconstructions show these domains as topographically isolated areas, separated by deep pelagic basins and far from emerged continental areas. Thus, they hardly justify the long-lasting occurrence of these terrestrial vertebrates. Recent studies on the Mesozoic Panormide Carbonate Platform (western Sicily) yielded important stratigraphical and palaeonto- logical data, which provide evidence for a convincing explanation of this unresolved problem. The recent discovery of a theropod bone in mid-Cretaceous peritidal levels of the Panormide Platform as well as the anomalous subsidence of this palaeogeographic domain, strongly support the existence of a crustal sector (filtering bridge) which connected Africa to Adri