Dynamic conditional correlation analysis of financial market interdependence: An application to Thailand and Indonesia

This paper examines the dynamic linkages among financial markets in Thailand and Indonesia. In particular, we focus on the cross-border relationship in individual markets and on the relationship between finan- cial markets within each country. We find that while tight monetary policy pursued by Thailand authorities helped to defend the exchange rate at the outbreak of the financial crisis, it had little consequences for Indonesia at the end of 1998. The correlations between countries within each of the financial market reveals a certain degree of interde- pendence among countries, which is lower during crises.

The role of R&D and patent activity in economic growth: some empirical evidence

This paper explains growth of labour productivity through (inter)national spillovers from R&D and patenting. We develop a formal model that is tested for Germany, France, the United Kingdom and the United States of America using a new set of panel data. The results indicate that, for the period 1957 until 1991, domestic R&D has an indirect and positive impact on productivity growth for the economy as a whole via technological catch up. For the period 1974–1991 we only find such a postive effect for French manufacturing.

Endurance in speed skating

Abstract We analyse the development of world records speed skating from 1893 to 2000 for both men and women. The historical data show that it is likely that the relation between skating speed and distance of the various events is non-linear and converges to a limit value. We pay special attention to technical innovations in speed skating, especially, the introduction of the klapskate in the 1996/1997 season, and its impact on the long-run limit value. We focus on endurance and we estimate lower bounds for world records given the current technological state of the art.

Trends in productivity: the case of capital shortage

This paper analyses the effect of rising wage rates and real interest rates on labour productivity and capital productivity in a situation of capital shortage. Furthermore, it shows the effect of rising wage rates and real interest rates on the capital intensity of the production process. This latter effect can not be determined unambiguously.

Do skin suits increase average skating speed?

We analyze the effectiveness of speedskating suits to increase average skating speed at the 2002 Olympic winter games of Salt Lake City. We model the average skating speed of male and female speed skaters at distances from 500 to 10000 meters. Speed not only depends on physical characteristics of the skaters, but also on previous performance and speedskating suits that reduce drag. We find that one specific suit, the so-called Swift Skin suit, significantly increases average skating speed, especially in long-distance events. This suits increase speed by up to 0.2-0.3 seconds per lap on a 400-meter oval. The effects are more pronounced for men than for women and show up in the first part of the race.

Indicators of financial crises do work! : an early-warning system for six Asian countries

Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system for six countries in Asia, in which indicators do work.We distinguish three types of financial crises, currency crises, banking crises and debt crises, and extract four groups of indicators from the literatureexternal, financial, domestic (real and public), and global indicatorsthat are likely to affect the probability of financial crises. The significance of the indicator groups is tested in a multivariate logit model on a panel of six Asian countries for the period 1970:01-2001:12. An additional feature is that we examine four different currency crisis dating definitions. A within-sample signal extraction experiment reveals that some currency crises dating schemes outperform others.

Indicators of financial crises do work! An early-warning system for six Asian countries

Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system for six countries in Asia, in which indicators do work.We distinguish three types of financial crises, currency crises, banking crises and debt crises, and extract four groups of indicators from the literature—external, financial, domestic (real and public), and global indicators—that are likely to affect the probability of financial crises. The significance of the indicator groups is tested in a multivariate logit model on a panel of six Asian countries for the period 1970:01-2001:12. An additional feature is that we examine four different currency crisis dating definitions. A within-sample signal extraction experiment reveals that some currency crises dating schemes outperform others.financial crises, currency crises, banking crises, debt crises, early warning system, panel data, multivariate logit, factor analysis

Does oil price uncertainty affect energy use?

Theory predicts that the presence of fixed costs affects the relationship between energy use and energy price changes, as the firm's output and investment decisions respond differently to energy price increases and decreases. The asymmetry in response to energy price changes is exacerbated by uncertainty with respect to future energy prices, but to date the empirical literature does not explicitly take uncertainty into account. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we develop a new measure of energy price uncertainty. Second, we apply the measure to explain energy use in 8 OECD countries between 1978 and 1996, trying to identify whether indeed energy price uncertainty effects the asymmetry resulting from changes in energy use.

Trends in productivity: the case of capital shortage

Abstract This paper analyses the effect of rising wage rates and real interest rates on labour productivity and capital productivity in a situation of capital shortage. Furthermore, it shows the effect of rising wage rates and real interest rates on the capital intensity of the production process. This latter effect can not be determined unambiguously.

Asymmetric adaptations to energy price changes

The effectiveness of policies to reduce the use of energy depend on the elasticity of substitution between the various inputs and on the rate of technological progress. This paper presents a theoretical model emphasising energy investments’ characteristics of uncertainty and irreversibility that result in testable hypotheses concerning the relative values of substitution parameters and rates of technological change in periods of high and increasing energy prices and in periods of low prices. Estimation results for a panel of sectors of the Dutch economy show that the elasticity of substitution between energy and other inputs is low in periods of low energy prices, whereas it is significantly higher in the preceding period of high and increasing energy prices. Furthermore, energy-saving technological progress in periods of high and increasing energy prices is also significantly higher than if energy prices are low and falling. The regression results suggest that, due this asymmetric response of firms to changes in energy prices, taxing energy in the current period of low energy prices will not yield substantial reductions in energy use of Dutch industry.